{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2802117192","doi":null,"title":"Moving from Forecast to Prediction: How Honors Programs Can Use Easily Accessible Predictive Analytics to Improve Enrollment Management.","display_name":"Moving from Forecast to Prediction: How Honors Programs Can Use Easily Accessible Predictive Analytics to Improve Enrollment Management.","publication_year":2017,"publication_date":"2017-09-22","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2802117192","mag":"2802117192"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:digitalcommons.unl.edu:nchcjournal-1596","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/nchcjournal/599","pdf_url":"https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1596&context=nchcjournal","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400577","display_name":"Lincoln (University of Nebraska)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I114395901","host_organization_name":"University of Nebraska\u2013Lincoln","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114395901"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the National Collegiate Honors Council Online Archive","raw_type":"text"},"parent_works":[],"lineage":["https://openalex.org/W2802117192"],"child_works_count":0,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1596&context=nchcjournal","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036315802","display_name":"Joseph A. Cazier","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9339-2493","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9339-2493"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Joseph A. Cazier","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9339-2493","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Leslie Sargent Jones","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Leslie Sargent Jones","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5064311572","display_name":"Jennifer Richardson McGee","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6885-6364","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6885-6364"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jennifer McGee","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6885-6364","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Mark Jacobs","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2175-7040","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2175-7040"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mark Jacobs","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2175-7040","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030368850","display_name":"Daniel Paprocki","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel Paprocki","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041200790","display_name":"Rachel A. Sledge","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rachel A. Sledge","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":93},"biblio":{"volume":"18","issue":"2","first_page":"213","last_page":"234"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.6646000146865845,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.6646000146865845,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11891","display_name":"Big Data and Business Intelligence","score":0.19470000267028809,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1404","display_name":"Management Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10267","display_name":"Higher Education Research Studies","score":0.040300000458955765,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3304","display_name":"Education"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/honors-programs","display_name":"honors programs","score":0.8880000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/enrollment-management","display_name":"enrollment management","score":0.8410000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictive-analytics","display_name":"predictive analytics","score":0.9570000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prescriptive-analytics","display_name":"prescriptive analytics","score":0.6449999809265137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spreadsheet-modeling","display_name":"spreadsheet modeling","score":0.5590000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/student-diversity","display_name":"student diversity","score":0.4399999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/student-retention","display_name":"student retention","score":0.4819999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/student-recruitment","display_name":"student recruitment","score":0.31200000643730164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/student-satisfaction","display_name":"student satisfaction","score":0.6019999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/student-engagement","display_name":"student engagement","score":0.9649999737739563}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83209312","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1053367","display_name":"Predictive analytics","level":2,"score":0.5823898911476135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777648619","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2845208","display_name":"Learning analytics","level":2,"score":0.5115521550178528},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5003359317779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79158427","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485396","display_name":"Analytics","level":2,"score":0.4910542964935303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781206393","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2748419","display_name":"Academic achievement","level":2,"score":0.45175233483314514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145420912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q853077","display_name":"Mathematics education","level":1,"score":0.42441433668136597},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.38465389609336853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.3219992518424988}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:digitalcommons.unl.edu:nchcjournal-1596","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/nchcjournal/599","pdf_url":"https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1596&context=nchcjournal","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400577","display_name":"Lincoln (University of Nebraska)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I114395901","host_organization_name":"University of Nebraska\u2013Lincoln","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114395901"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the National Collegiate Honors Council Online Archive","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:2802117192","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1222310.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764454927","display_name":"The Journal of the National Collegiate Honors Council","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"The Journal of the National Collegiate Honors Council","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:digitalcommons.unl.edu:nchcjournal-1596","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/nchcjournal/599","pdf_url":"https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1596&context=nchcjournal","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400577","display_name":"Lincoln (University of Nebraska)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I114395901","host_organization_name":"University of Nebraska\u2013Lincoln","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114395901"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the National Collegiate Honors Council Online Archive","raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.4156000018119812,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4","display_name":"Quality education"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2802117192.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2802117192.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2996069386","https://openalex.org/W3205778345","https://openalex.org/W209033486","https://openalex.org/W240379682","https://openalex.org/W291709206","https://openalex.org/W602678113","https://openalex.org/W592670863","https://openalex.org/W230265756","https://openalex.org/W3193612000","https://openalex.org/W2100429175"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Most":[0],"enrollment":[1,23,42],"management":[2,186],"systems":[3],"today":[4,150,363],"use":[5,197,408],"historical":[6,26,63],"data":[7,99,119],"to":[8,57,91,107,200,208,212,290,322,332,339,343,351,371,379,482,499],"build":[9,75],"rough":[10],"forecasts":[11],"of":[12,15,22,50,98,110,117,140,164,171,174,205,243,300,304,376,385,428,432,444],"what":[13,328,347],"percentage":[14],"students":[16,206,257,447],"will":[17,159,249,359],"likely":[18,160,286,449,481],"accept":[19],"an":[20,41,47,58,138,193,213,234,419,430],"offer":[21,431],"based":[24,44,167],"on":[25,45,168],"acceptance":[27],"rates.":[28],"While":[29],"this":[30,198,411],"aggregate":[31,64,146],"forecast":[32,131,136,153,443],"method":[33],"has":[34,390],"its":[35],"uses,":[36],"we":[37,80,366,368,401],"propose":[38],"that":[39,82,154,226,357,403,458],"building":[40],"model":[43],"predicting":[46],"individual\u2019s":[48],"likelihood":[49,427,457],"matriculation":[51],"can":[52,74,86,221,367,406],"be":[53,88,228,282,330,438],"much":[54],"more":[55,224],"beneficial":[56],"honors":[59,92,194,235,254,404,415],"director":[60],"than":[61],"a":[62,83,95,118,130,133,141,231,251,267,353,381,441,471],"forecast.":[65],"Many":[66],"complex":[67],"predictive":[68,218,268,386],"analytics":[69,219,269,318,389],"techniques":[70],"and":[71,101,132,177,184,309,387,397,400,501],"specialized":[72],"software":[73,104],"such":[76],"models,":[77],"but":[78,246,284,451],"here":[79],"show":[81,455],"basic":[84,102],"approach":[85,199],"also":[87,320,407,454],"easily":[89],"accessible":[90],"directors":[93,405],"where":[94,237,325],"small":[96],"amount":[97],"collection":[100],"spreadsheet":[103],"allow":[105],"them":[106],"capture":[108],"most":[109],"the":[111,115,127,175,202,209,240,263,298,315,456,495],"benefits":[112],"without":[113],"needing":[114],"skills":[116],"scientist.":[120],"The":[121,464],"first":[122],"step":[123],"comes":[124],"in":[125,145,230],"understanding":[126],"difference":[128],"between":[129],"prediction.":[134],"A":[135],"is":[137,289],"estimate":[139],"future":[142],"event,":[143],"generally":[144],"form.":[147],"For":[148],"example,":[149],"I":[151],"might":[152,196,271,281,296,307,313,319,329,349],"our":[155],"ice":[156,165,264,278,292,301,341,361],"cream":[157,166,265,279,342,362],"store":[158],"sell":[161],"1,000":[162],"scoops":[163,280,374],"weather,":[169],"time":[170,303,497],"year,":[172],"day":[173,305],"week,":[176],"regional":[178],"events\u2014all":[179],"useful":[180,229],"information":[181,485],"for":[182],"staffing":[183],"inventory":[185],"as":[187,189,492,494],"well":[188,493],"profitability":[190],"analysis.":[191],"Historically,":[192],"administrator":[195],"predict":[201,272,297,467],"total":[203,241,277],"number":[204,242],"matriculating":[207],"university":[210],"or":[211,364,378,425,477],"individual":[214,288,460],"program.":[215],"However,":[216],"with":[217,256],"one":[220,377],"acquire":[222],"even":[223],"detail":[225],"could":[227,436,466,486],"setting":[232],"like":[233],"program":[236,255],"not":[238,273,337],"just":[239,274],"\u201ccustomers\u201d":[244],"matter":[245],"which":[247],"ones":[248],"create":[250],"well-rounded,":[252],"diverse":[253],"from":[258,470],"multiple":[259],"backgrounds":[260],"(Siegel).":[261],"In":[262,410],"case,":[266],"example":[270],"how":[275,285,310,365,445,468],"many":[276,392,446,469],"sold":[283],"each":[287,413],"buy":[291,340,360,372],"cream.":[293],"Deeper":[294],"analysis":[295],"type":[299,384],"cream,":[302],"customers":[306],"come,":[308],"frequently":[311],"they":[312],"visit":[314],"store.":[316],"Predictive":[317],"lead":[321],"prescriptive":[323,388],"analytics,":[324],"you":[326],"learn":[327],"done":[331],"persuade":[333],"someone":[334],"who":[335],"was":[336],"planning":[338],"do":[344],"so,":[345],"e.g.,":[346],"it":[348,452],"take":[350],"change":[352],"consumer\u2019s":[354],"mind":[355],"so":[356],"she":[358],"get":[369],"her":[370,426],"two":[373],"instead":[375],"bring":[380],"friend.":[382],"This":[383,434,484],"helped":[391],"organizations":[393],"improve":[394],"their":[395],"efficiency":[396],"effectiveness":[398],"(Siegel),":[399],"believe":[402],"it.":[409],"approach,":[412],"potential":[414],"student":[416,461],"would":[417,448,453,462],"receive":[418],"individualized":[420],"probability":[421],"score":[422,435],"reflecting":[423],"his":[424],"accepting":[429],"admission.":[433],"still":[437],"aggregated":[439],"into":[440],"direct":[442],"attend,":[450],"any":[459],"attend.":[463,483],"scores":[465],"certain":[472],"group":[473],"(e.g.,":[474],"science":[475],"majors":[476],"Hispanic":[478],"students)":[479],"are":[480],"help":[487],"strategically":[488],"determine":[489],"scholarship":[490],"offers":[491],"staff\u2019s":[496],"commitments":[498],"recruitment":[500],"follow-up":[502],"activities.":[503]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-27T15:51:10.671819","created_date":"2018-05-17T00:00:00"}