{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2603015970","doi":null,"title":"Identifying Experts in Virtual Forecasting Communities","display_name":"Identifying Experts in Virtual Forecasting Communities","publication_year":2012,"publication_date":"2012-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2603015970","mag":"2603015970"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.692.1896","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.692.1896","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://aisel.aisnet.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article%3D1294%26context%3Damcis2012","raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5088390733","display_name":"Florian Teschner","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Florian Teschner","raw_affiliation_strings":["Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021007726","display_name":"Christof Weinhardt","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7945-4077","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7945-4077"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Christof Weinhardt","raw_affiliation_strings":["Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7945-4077","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":93},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9023000001907349,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9023000001907349,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.04529999941587448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13274","display_name":"Expert finding and Q&A systems","score":0.016300000250339508,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-markets","display_name":"prediction markets","score":0.871999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expert-identification","display_name":"expert identification","score":0.8370000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomic-forecasting","display_name":"macroeconomic forecasting","score":0.9549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/information-aggregation","display_name":"information aggregation","score":0.765999972820282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reputation","display_name":"reputation","score":0.5440000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/online-communities","display_name":"online communities","score":0.47099998593330383}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.658717691898346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.6080030202865601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9652623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190109","display_name":"Field (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5811080932617188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.5737590789794922},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163068380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409313","display_name":"Economic forecasting","level":2,"score":0.5202963948249817},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.4325869679450989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.26289525628089905},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.13716712594032288},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C202444582","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837863","display_name":"Pure mathematics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.692.1896","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.692.1896","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://aisel.aisnet.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article%3D1294%26context%3Damcis2012","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:2603015970","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://aisel.aisnet.org/amcis2012/proceedings/VirtualCommunities/4/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306417665","display_name":"Americas Conference on Information Systems","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"conference"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Americas Conference on Information Systems","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":19,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W99347549","https://openalex.org/W1492770578","https://openalex.org/W1521163061","https://openalex.org/W1533886371","https://openalex.org/W1538844734","https://openalex.org/W1551523759","https://openalex.org/W2021451007","https://openalex.org/W2035159641","https://openalex.org/W2045902335","https://openalex.org/W2047196615","https://openalex.org/W2129604246","https://openalex.org/W2132613313","https://openalex.org/W2159632829","https://openalex.org/W2167142086","https://openalex.org/W2335322636","https://openalex.org/W2489782956","https://openalex.org/W3125221879","https://openalex.org/W3125438383","https://openalex.org/W3126138345"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2470524293","https://openalex.org/W2114866984","https://openalex.org/W2755799564","https://openalex.org/W2995395036","https://openalex.org/W2478926247","https://openalex.org/W1500236012","https://openalex.org/W2808252971","https://openalex.org/W3018833570","https://openalex.org/W2564938748","https://openalex.org/W99347549"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Macroeconomic":[0],"forecasts":[1],"are":[2],"used":[3],"extensively":[4],"in":[5,34,39,54,113],"industry":[6],"and":[7,14,38,51,71],"government":[8],"even":[9],"though":[10],"the":[11,19,35,67,72],"historical":[12],"accuracy":[13],"reliability":[15],"is":[16,44,129],"questionable.":[17],"Over":[18],"last":[20],"couple":[21],"of":[22,75],"years":[23],"prediction":[24,81],"markets":[25],"as":[26,111],"a":[27,80,121],"community":[28],"forecasting":[29,115],"method":[30],"have":[31],"gained":[32],"interest":[33],"scientific":[36],"world":[37],"industry.":[40],"An":[41],"arising":[42],"question":[43],"how":[45],"to":[46,65],"detect":[47],"valuable":[48],"user":[49,96],"input":[50,60,97],"identify":[52],"experts":[53],"such":[55,59,76],"online":[56],"communities.":[57],"Detecting":[58],"would":[61],"possibly":[62],"enable":[63],"us":[64],"improve":[66],"information":[68],"aggregation":[69],"mechanism":[70],"forecast":[73],"performance":[74],"systems.":[77],"We":[78],"design":[79],"market":[82],"for":[83,131],"economic":[84],"derivatives":[85],"that":[86,95,105,127],"aggregates":[87],"macroeconomic":[88],"information.":[89],"Using":[90],"market-based":[91],"measures":[92,107],"we":[93,125],"find":[94,126],"can":[98],"be":[99],"evaluated":[100],"ad-hoc.":[101],"Further":[102],"analysis":[103],"shows":[104],"aggregated":[106],"outperform":[108],"established":[109],"methods-such":[110],"reputation-":[112],"identifying":[114],"experts.":[116],"Moreover,":[117],"using":[118],"data":[119],"from":[120],"two":[122],"year":[123],"field-experiment":[124],"expertise":[128],"stable":[130],"longer":[132],"time":[133],"horizons.":[134]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2017-04-07T00:00:00"}