{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2585307662","doi":null,"title":"Demographic Uncertainty and Health Care Expenditure in Spain","display_name":"Demographic Uncertainty and Health Care Expenditure in Spain","publication_year":2005,"publication_date":"2005-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2585307662","mag":"2585307662"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2005-07","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2005/dt-2005-07.pdf","pdf_url":"https://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2005/dt-2005-07.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5111779535","display_name":"Namkee Ahn","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Namkee Ahn","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101691596","display_name":"Juan Ram\u00f3n Carb\u00f3 Garc\u00eda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0068-1825","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0068-1825"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Juan Ram\u00f3n Carb\u00f3 Garc\u00eda","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0068-1825","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5010481023","display_name":"Jos\u00e9 Antonio Herce","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jos\u00e9 Antonio Herce","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":8,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12781","display_name":"Global Health Care Issues","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3600","display_name":"General Health Professions"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12781","display_name":"Global Health Care Issues","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3600","display_name":"General Health Professions"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11531","display_name":"Healthcare Systems and Reforms","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-care-expenditure","display_name":"health care expenditure","score":0.8830000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demographic-uncertainty","display_name":"demographic uncertainty","score":0.925000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stochastic-population-projection","display_name":"stochastic population projection","score":0.8159999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-projections","display_name":"probabilistic projections","score":0.6060000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-health-expenditure","display_name":"public health expenditure","score":0.7730000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-aging","display_name":"population aging","score":0.9010000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/per-capita-health-expenditure","display_name":"per capita health expenditure","score":0.9419999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hospitalization-costs","display_name":"hospital costs","score":0.6290000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/survival-status","display_name":"survival status","score":0.7099999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mortality-decline","display_name":"mortality decline","score":0.781000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spain","display_name":"Spain","score":0.7910000085830688}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160735492","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31207","display_name":"Health care","level":2,"score":0.5375077724456787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3866967558860779},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.363484263420105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100001284","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2248246","display_name":"Public economics","level":1,"score":0.34945210814476013},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.3324376046657562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50522688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189833","display_name":"Economic growth","level":1,"score":0.258758544921875}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2005-07","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2005/dt-2005-07.pdf","pdf_url":"https://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2005/dt-2005-07.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:2585307662","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jose_Herce/publication/5022496_Demographic_Uncertainty_and_Health_Care_Expenditure_in_Spain/links/00b49525464028daa2000000.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6240000128746033,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":26,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W187998732","https://openalex.org/W563648290","https://openalex.org/W582383535","https://openalex.org/W1501069528","https://openalex.org/W1538070335","https://openalex.org/W1565656042","https://openalex.org/W1584505423","https://openalex.org/W1928574501","https://openalex.org/W1976918913","https://openalex.org/W2000364899","https://openalex.org/W2009309690","https://openalex.org/W2039810561","https://openalex.org/W2043961674","https://openalex.org/W2057111073","https://openalex.org/W2057988091","https://openalex.org/W2059227744","https://openalex.org/W2077911444","https://openalex.org/W2112021530","https://openalex.org/W2135152987","https://openalex.org/W2136851247","https://openalex.org/W2146511508","https://openalex.org/W2157411708","https://openalex.org/W2188115545","https://openalex.org/W2189347776","https://openalex.org/W2332795037","https://openalex.org/W2613810568"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4403824159","https://openalex.org/W1997569106","https://openalex.org/W2019518664","https://openalex.org/W2029595168","https://openalex.org/W7020431274","https://openalex.org/W1599768004","https://openalex.org/W3011725369","https://openalex.org/W2673345349","https://openalex.org/W2207157039","https://openalex.org/W2474767977"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Usual":[0],"projections":[1,41,47],"of":[2,9,14,98,125,151,176,229,276,287],"health":[3,10,27,59,83,92,99,107,160,217,232,288,297],"care":[4,60],"expenditure":[5,11,93,108,134,161,181,190,197,218,233,256,289,317],"combine":[6],"age-sex":[7,25,81],"profiles":[8],"and":[12,29,39,79],"scenarios":[13],"population":[15,31,77,88],"projection.":[16],"However,":[17],"it":[18],"has":[19],"been":[20],"shown":[21],"repeatedly":[22],"that":[23,105,119,132,213,252,262,283,302],"both":[24],"specific":[26,82],"expenditures":[28],"the":[30,34,46,50,70,86,115,133,142,154,157,177,185,221,227,230,255,259,281],"structures":[32],"in":[33,56,76,179,187,203,208,234,243,258,272,318],"future":[35,58,80,260,296],"are":[36,53],"highly":[37],"uncertain":[38],"most":[40],"turned":[42],"out":[43],"wrong.":[44],"Therefore,":[45],"based":[48],"on":[49],"traditional":[51],"approach":[52],"often":[54],"unhelpful":[55],"evaluating":[57],"expenditures.":[61],"In":[62],"this":[63],"project":[64],"we":[65,94,211],"try":[66],"to":[67,147,192,205,241,247],"improve":[68],"upon":[69],"existing":[71],"literature":[72],"by":[73,111,137,165,184,199,220,292,306],"incorporating":[74],"uncertainties":[75],"projection":[78,89,103,143],"expenditure.":[84,100,298],"Combining":[85],"stochastic":[87],"with":[90,169,263,280],"age-specific":[91],"obtain":[95],"probabilistic":[96],"distributions":[97],"The":[101,173,194],"median":[102],"shows":[104],"public":[106,159,216,231],"will":[109,135,162,236,268],"increase":[110,124,136,150,178,186,237],"about":[112,313],"40%":[113],"during":[114,141],"next":[116],"47":[117],"years,":[118],"is,":[120],"an":[121,148],"average":[122,188,195],"annual":[123,149],"0.74%.":[126],"There":[127],"is":[128,182,261,290],"a":[129,170,284],"10%":[130,171],"chance":[131],"more":[138],"than":[139],"66%":[140],"period,":[144],"which":[145],"corresponds":[146],"1.1%.":[152],"At":[153],"optimistic":[155],"side":[156],"total":[158,180,315],"grow":[163],"only":[164],"17%":[166],"(0.35%":[167],"annual)":[168],"probability.":[172],"main":[174],"part":[175,286],"driven":[183,291],"per-capita":[189,196,215,225],"due":[191,246],"ageing.":[193],"increases":[198,219],"33%,":[200],"from":[201,238],"980":[202],"2004":[204],"1307":[206],"euros":[207],"2050.":[209],"If":[210],"assume":[212],"real":[214],"same":[222],"rate":[223,266],"as":[224],"GDP,":[226],"share":[228],"GDP":[235],"5%":[239],"today":[240],"6.7%":[242],"2050,":[244],"solely":[245],"demographic":[248],"change.":[249],"One":[250],"factor":[251],"could":[253,294,309],"reduce":[254,295,310],"pressure":[257],"decreasing":[264],"mortality":[265],"there":[267],"be":[269],"fewer":[270],"people":[271],"their":[273],"last":[274],"year":[275],"life.":[277],"This,":[278],"combined":[279],"fact":[282],"major":[285],"decedents,":[293],"Our":[299],"estimation":[300],"suggests":[301],"distinguishing":[303],"hospital":[304,316],"costs":[305],"survival":[307],"status":[308],"somewhat":[311],"(by":[312],"8%)":[314],"2049":[319]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2017-02-10T00:00:00"}