{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2575205965","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1097/mej.0000000000000451","title":"No more winter crisis? Forecasting daily bed requirements for emergency department admissions to hospital","display_name":"No more winter crisis? Forecasting daily bed requirements for emergency department admissions to hospital","publication_year":2017,"publication_date":"2017-01-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2575205965","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1097/mej.0000000000000451","mag":"2575205965","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28118319"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1097/mej.0000000000000451","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1097/mej.0000000000000451","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/mej.0000000000000451","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S170806771","display_name":"European Journal of Emergency Medicine","issn_l":"0969-9546","issn":["0969-9546","1473-5695"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315671","host_organization_name":"Lippincott Williams & Wilkins","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315671","https://openalex.org/P4310318547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Lippincott Williams & Wilkins","Wolters Kluwer"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Emergency Medicine","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054102803","display_name":"Mathias Wargon","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0116-5571","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0116-5571"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210110889","display_name":"H\u00f4pital Saint- Camille","ror":"https://ror.org/01yys9r78","country_code":"FR","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210110889"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Mathias Wargon","raw_affiliation_strings":["Hospital Saint Camille, Emergency Department, Bry Sur Marne, France","Study Group on Efficiency and Quality in non-scheduled activities, Paris, France","Fax: +0033149831198"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Hospital Saint Camille, Emergency Department, Bry Sur Marne, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210110889"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Study Group on Efficiency and Quality in non-scheduled activities, Paris, France","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Fax: +0033149831198","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5089496997","display_name":"DOMINIQUE BRUN-NEY","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210097159","display_name":"Assistance Publique \u2013 H\u00f4pitaux de Paris","ror":"https://ror.org/00pg5jh14","country_code":"FR","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210097159"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dominique Brun-Ney","raw_affiliation_strings":["Medical Organisation Department - Emergencies and Intensive Cares, Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France","Regional Center of Watchfulness and Action Paris Area Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Medical Organisation Department - Emergencies and Intensive Cares, Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210097159"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Regional Center of Watchfulness and Action Paris Area Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210097159"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022987457","display_name":"Laure Beaujouan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210097159","display_name":"Assistance Publique \u2013 H\u00f4pitaux de Paris","ror":"https://ror.org/00pg5jh14","country_code":"FR","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210097159"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Laure Beaujouan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Medical Organisation Department - Emergencies and Intensive Cares, Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France","Regional Center of Watchfulness and Action Paris Area Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Medical Organisation Department - Emergencies and Intensive Cares, Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210097159"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Regional Center of Watchfulness and Action Paris Area Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210097159"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011501999","display_name":"Enrique Casalino","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4352-6729","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4352-6729"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210091437","display_name":"Sorbonne Paris Cit\u00e9","ror":"https://ror.org/001z21q04","country_code":"FR","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204730241","https://openalex.org/I4210091437"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210097159","display_name":"Assistance Publique \u2013 H\u00f4pitaux de Paris","ror":"https://ror.org/00pg5jh14","country_code":"FR","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210097159"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210145170","display_name":"H\u00f4pital Bichat-Claude-Bernard","ror":"https://ror.org/03fdnmv92","country_code":"FR","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210097159","https://openalex.org/I4210145170"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154366","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 Paris Diderot","ror":"https://ror.org/02n7qrg46","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204730241","https://openalex.org/I4387154366"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Enrique Casalino","raw_affiliation_strings":["H\u00f4pital Bichat-Claude Bernard, Emergency Department, Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France","Study Group on Efficiency and Quality in non-scheduled activities, Paris, France","UA 7335 REMES, Paris Diderot University, Sorbonne Paris Cit\u00e9, Paris, France"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"H\u00f4pital Bichat-Claude Bernard, Emergency Department, Assistance Publique-H\u00f4pitaux de Paris, Paris, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210097159","https://openalex.org/I4210145170"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Study Group on Efficiency and Quality in non-scheduled activities, Paris, France","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"UA 7335 REMES, Paris Diderot University, Sorbonne Paris Cit\u00e9, Paris, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210091437","https://openalex.org/I4387154366"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5054102803"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210110889"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.7158,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":12,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.81750258,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":87,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"25","issue":"4","first_page":"250","last_page":"256"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11095","display_name":"Emergency and Acute Care Studies","score":0.9976000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2711","display_name":"Emergency Medicine"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11095","display_name":"Emergency and Acute Care Studies","score":0.9976000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2711","display_name":"Emergency Medicine"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11773","display_name":"Healthcare Operations and Scheduling Optimization","score":0.0007999999797903001,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12174","display_name":"Hospital Admissions and Outcomes","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2911","display_name":"Leadership and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/29","display_name":"Nursing"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/emergency-department-hospitalization","display_name":"emergency department hospitalization","score":0.8880000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-variation","display_name":"seasonal variation","score":0.6209999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/influenza-epidemic","display_name":"influenza epidemic","score":0.9380000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/elderly-patients","display_name":"elderly patients","score":0.8019999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/age-differences-in-hospitalization","display_name":"age differences in hospitalization","score":0.6629999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/emergency-department-use","display_name":"emergency department utilization","score":0.3319999873638153}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.7859890460968018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780724011","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1295316","display_name":"Emergency department","level":2,"score":0.7112146615982056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.6691729426383972},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C23131810","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q818574","display_name":"Observational study","level":2,"score":0.6659379601478577},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C194828623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2861470","display_name":"Emergency medicine","level":1,"score":0.4834759831428528},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.44280779361724854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18246116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42962347","display_name":"Names of the days of the week","level":2,"score":0.41825246810913086},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187212893","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q123028","display_name":"Pediatrics","level":1,"score":0.3790901303291321},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.17838558554649353},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118552586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7867","display_name":"Psychiatry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000293","descriptor_name":"Adolescent","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000328","descriptor_name":"Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003695","descriptor_name":"Delivery of Health Care","qualifier_ui":"Q000458","qualifier_name":"organization & administration","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D004636","descriptor_name":"Emergency Service, Hospital","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005602","descriptor_name":"France","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006742","descriptor_name":"Hospital Bed Capacity","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D006760","descriptor_name":"Hospitalization","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007251","descriptor_name":"Influenza, Human","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D007251","descriptor_name":"Influenza, Human","qualifier_ui":"Q000628","qualifier_name":"therapy","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008875","descriptor_name":"Middle Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011446","descriptor_name":"Prospective Studies","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012621","descriptor_name":"Seasons","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016001","descriptor_name":"Confidence Intervals","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D055815","descriptor_name":"Young Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1097/mej.0000000000000451","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1097/mej.0000000000000451","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/mej.0000000000000451","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S170806771","display_name":"European Journal of Emergency Medicine","issn_l":"0969-9546","issn":["0969-9546","1473-5695"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315671","host_organization_name":"Lippincott Williams & Wilkins","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315671","https://openalex.org/P4310318547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Lippincott Williams & Wilkins","Wolters Kluwer"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Emergency Medicine","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:28118319","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28118319","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European journal of emergency medicine : official journal of the European Society for Emergency Medicine","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.9763000011444092,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"study_designs":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/study-designs/observational-study","display_name":"Observational Study"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":20,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W48621344","https://openalex.org/W1516144503","https://openalex.org/W1549131646","https://openalex.org/W1980305807","https://openalex.org/W2002096511","https://openalex.org/W2018378938","https://openalex.org/W2019039392","https://openalex.org/W2038804786","https://openalex.org/W2067117561","https://openalex.org/W2070750060","https://openalex.org/W2081574945","https://openalex.org/W2081856317","https://openalex.org/W2102368322","https://openalex.org/W2106600183","https://openalex.org/W2116344634","https://openalex.org/W2117096046","https://openalex.org/W2141321947","https://openalex.org/W2141717791","https://openalex.org/W2166332563","https://openalex.org/W2324111761"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2160996683","https://openalex.org/W7018403514","https://openalex.org/W4408342522","https://openalex.org/W4225016423","https://openalex.org/W1549131646","https://openalex.org/W1516144503","https://openalex.org/W2336279504","https://openalex.org/W3091955727","https://openalex.org/W2057099919","https://openalex.org/W2106600183"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"STUDY":[0],"HYPOTHESIS:":[1],"We":[2,45,125],"hypothesized":[3],"that":[4],"age,":[5,192],"calendar":[6,88,249],"variables,":[7],"and":[8,90,97,118,142,214,265,278],"clinical":[9],"influenza":[10,91,273],"epidemics":[11,92],"may":[12],"have":[13],"an":[14,143],"impact":[15,271],"on":[16,244],"the":[17,38,58,74,102,232],"number":[18,40,237],"of":[19,27,41,106,140,149,154,182,186,191,212,218,223,225,238,255,272],"daily":[20,39,161,226],"through-emergency":[21],"department":[22],"(ED)":[23],"hospitalizations.":[24,43],"The":[25],"aim":[26],"our":[28],"study":[29,50],"was":[30,170,195],"to":[31,36,68,72,261],"elaborate":[32],"a":[33,48,78,127,172,245,252,269],"pragmatic":[34],"tool":[35],"predict":[37],"through-ED":[42,63,121,258],"METHODS:":[44],"carried":[46],"out":[47],"prospective-observational":[49],"including":[51],"data":[52],"from":[53,66],"18":[54],"ED":[55,116],"located":[56],"in":[57,176,198,231,276,280],"Paris":[59],"metropolitan":[60],"area.":[61],"Daily":[62,236],"hospitalizations":[64,122,162,175,240,259],"numbers":[65],"2007":[67],"2010":[69],"were":[70,110,123,158,229],"modelized":[71],"forecast":[73,100,233],"year":[75],"2011":[76],"using":[77,87,248],"general":[79],"linear":[80],"model":[81],"by":[82],"age":[83,141,165,213,224],"groups":[84],"(<75-years;":[85],"\u226575-years)":[86],"variables":[89,157,250],"as":[93],"explanatory":[94,108],"variables.":[95],"Lower":[96],"higher":[98],"limits":[99],"with":[101,251,268],"95%":[103],"confidence":[104],"interval":[105],"each":[107],"variable":[109],"calculated.":[111],"RESULTS:":[112],"2":[113],"741":[114],"974":[115],"visits":[117,133],"518":[119],"857":[120],"included.":[124],"found":[126,196],"negative":[128],"trend":[129,145],"(-2.7%)":[130],"for":[131,147,160,163,174,206,216],"hospitalization":[132],"among":[134,184],"patients":[135,148,177,185,207,217],"less":[136,178,208],"than":[137,179,209],"75":[138,152,180,189,210,221],"years":[139,153,181,190,211,222],"increased":[144],"(+6.2%)":[146],"at":[150,187,219],"least":[151,188,220],"age.":[155],"Calendar":[156],"predictors":[159],"both":[164],"groups.":[166],"Influenza":[167],"epidemic":[168,274],"period":[169],"not":[171],"predictor":[173],"age;":[183],"significant":[193],"value":[194],"only":[197],"models":[199],"excluding":[200],"months.":[201],"When":[202],"forecasting":[203],"hospitalizations,":[204],"70%":[205],"66.8%":[215],"predicted":[227,243],"values":[228],"included":[230],"limits.":[234],"CONCLUSION:":[235],"emergency":[239],"could":[241],"be":[242],"regional":[246],"basis":[247],"low":[253,270],"level":[254],"error.":[256],"Forecasting":[257],"requires":[260],"differentiate":[262],"between":[263],"elderly":[264],"younger":[266],"patients,":[267],"periods":[275],"elders":[277],"absent":[279],"youngest":[281],"patients.":[282]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2017-01-26T00:00:00"}