{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2566462596","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832","title":"Terminal investment timing decisions in a competitive setting with uncertainty using a real option approach","display_name":"Terminal investment timing decisions in a competitive setting with uncertainty using a real option approach","publication_year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-12-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2566462596","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832","mag":"2566462596"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S155850388","display_name":"Maritime Policy & Management","issn_l":"0308-8839","issn":["0308-8839","1464-5254"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Maritime Policy & Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5090214563","display_name":"Shiyuan Zheng","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3864-6416","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3864-6416"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I96733725","display_name":"Shanghai Maritime University","ror":"https://ror.org/04z7qrj66","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I96733725"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Shiyuan Zheng","raw_affiliation_strings":["Management of Department, School of Transportation, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Management of Department, School of Transportation, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I96733725"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068318450","display_name":"Rudy R. Negenborn","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9784-1225","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9784-1225"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98358874","display_name":"Delft University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02e2c7k09","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98358874"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rudy R. Negenborn","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Maritime & Transport Technology, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Maritime & Transport Technology, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98358874"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5090214563"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I96733725"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":6.6929,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":32,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96338564,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"44","issue":"3","first_page":"392","last_page":"411"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.8964999914169312,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.8964999914169312,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11223","display_name":"Maritime Ports and Logistics","score":0.10279999673366547,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2209","display_name":"Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10067","display_name":"Stochastic processes and financial applications","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/real-options","display_name":"real options","score":0.8320000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/port-competition","display_name":"port competition","score":0.8830000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cargo-routing","display_name":"cargo routing","score":0.7749999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multi-commodity-flow","display_name":"multicommodity flow","score":0.8149999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/column-generation","display_name":"column generation","score":0.9679999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/optimal-stopping","display_name":"optimal stopping","score":0.9520000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/least-squares-monte-carlo","display_name":"least squares Monte Carlo","score":0.9800000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demand-variability","display_name":"demand variability","score":0.7770000100135803}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32802771","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2443617","display_name":"Port (circuit theory)","level":2,"score":0.6268889307975769},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195487862","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q850210","display_name":"Revenue","level":2,"score":0.5967308282852173},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91602232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q756115","display_name":"Volatility (finance)","level":2,"score":0.5550817251205444},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C181230689","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192472","display_name":"Net present value","level":3,"score":0.5536002516746521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27548731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q88272","display_name":"Investment (military)","level":3,"score":0.5205715298652649},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.5161467790603638},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779664074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3518405","display_name":"Terminal (telecommunication)","level":2,"score":0.5152833461761475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.48450228571891785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91306197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45767","display_name":"Competition (biology)","level":2,"score":0.48276057839393616},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57918260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1354666","display_name":"Capital budgeting","level":3,"score":0.4716954529285431},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780973918","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7099016","display_name":"Option value","level":3,"score":0.4328320622444153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19499675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q232207","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","level":2,"score":0.42430251836776733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.41939204931259155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.3443698287010193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3255932331085205},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175444787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39072","display_name":"Microeconomics","level":1,"score":0.276748389005661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.270372599363327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.18961980938911438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.15142807364463806},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.11391174793243408},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.09191101789474487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778348673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q739302","display_name":"Production (economics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29122968","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1414816","display_name":"Incentive","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21425071","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7249389","display_name":"Project appraisal","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119599485","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43035","display_name":"Electrical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S155850388","display_name":"Maritime Policy & Management","issn_l":"0308-8839","issn":["0308-8839","1464-5254"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Maritime Policy & Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:44:y:2017:i:3:p:392-411","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure","score":0.8970999717712402}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1599996103","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"15ZS046","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321881","funder_display_name":"Shanghai Municipal Education Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5981820569","display_name":"\u8de8\u5e02\u573a\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u5bfc\u4e0b\u57fa\u4e8eKalman\u6ee4\u6ce2\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u5957\u671f\u4fdd\u503c\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7814\u7a76","funder_award_id":"71402095","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6617458987","display_name":"\u57fa\u4e8e\u6fc0\u52b1\u76f8\u5bb9\u4e0e\u5dee\u522b\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u591a\u7ea7\u7269\u6d41\u670d\u52a1\u5546\u6536\u76ca\u4f18\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76","funder_award_id":"71402096","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321881","display_name":"Shanghai Municipal Education Commission","ror":"https://ror.org/05tewj457"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":45,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1548953477","https://openalex.org/W1967792882","https://openalex.org/W1969074198","https://openalex.org/W1973110466","https://openalex.org/W1975092563","https://openalex.org/W1977848391","https://openalex.org/W1983380438","https://openalex.org/W1985310597","https://openalex.org/W1995503011","https://openalex.org/W2010997253","https://openalex.org/W2016311232","https://openalex.org/W2016811480","https://openalex.org/W2019341701","https://openalex.org/W2026436549","https://openalex.org/W2027072537","https://openalex.org/W2032511764","https://openalex.org/W2046900723","https://openalex.org/W2049149240","https://openalex.org/W2051718315","https://openalex.org/W2051830280","https://openalex.org/W2053420802","https://openalex.org/W2054996253","https://openalex.org/W2065880063","https://openalex.org/W2070224590","https://openalex.org/W2071853070","https://openalex.org/W2072336944","https://openalex.org/W2074979364","https://openalex.org/W2088514047","https://openalex.org/W2091464587","https://openalex.org/W2091833481","https://openalex.org/W2092424619","https://openalex.org/W2110191269","https://openalex.org/W2126311658","https://openalex.org/W2128275647","https://openalex.org/W2128783518","https://openalex.org/W2130268466","https://openalex.org/W2162962003","https://openalex.org/W2166338056","https://openalex.org/W2173651613","https://openalex.org/W2252411913","https://openalex.org/W2265837015","https://openalex.org/W2598739772","https://openalex.org/W4233426233","https://openalex.org/W4300567850","https://openalex.org/W4365787967"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2918770002","https://openalex.org/W2989013121","https://openalex.org/W2905775629","https://openalex.org/W3210640767","https://openalex.org/W3140089007","https://openalex.org/W6990280150","https://openalex.org/W2365411765","https://openalex.org/W7098917904","https://openalex.org/W2354114940","https://openalex.org/W7065626307"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"uses":[2],"a":[3,17,30,50,65,127],"real":[4],"option":[5],"approach":[6],"to":[7,33,60,113,126,169],"analyze":[8],"terminal":[9,80,130],"investment":[10,96,131,161],"timing":[11,97],"decisions":[12,38],"for":[13,78,118,173],"situations":[14],"in":[15,24,133,138,155],"which":[16],"port":[18,164,174],"faces":[19],"competition":[20,40],"from":[21],"its":[22,79],"rivals":[23],"an":[25,100],"uncertain":[26],"market.":[27],"We":[28,44],"propose":[29],"network":[31,85],"model":[32,48],"describe":[34],"carriers\u2019":[35],"cargo":[36,129],"routing":[37],"and":[39,54,71,93,149,162],"among":[41],"rival":[42],"ports.":[43],"then":[45],"transform":[46,94],"this":[47],"into":[49,99],"multicommodity":[51],"flow":[52],"problem":[53],"use":[55],"the":[56,72,84,89,95,115,134,146,150,156,159,163],"column":[57],"generation":[58],"algorithm":[59,110],"solve":[61],"it.":[62],"After":[63],"obtaining":[64],"port\u2019s":[66],"possible":[67],"future":[68,119],"annual":[69],"revenues":[70],"potential":[73],"net":[74],"present":[75],"value":[76],"(NPV)":[77],"construction":[81],"project":[82],"through":[83],"model,":[86],"we":[87],"adopt":[88],"expanded":[90,151],"NPV":[91,152],"rule":[92],"decision":[98],"optimal":[101],"stopping":[102],"problem.":[103],"A":[104],"least":[105],"squares":[106],"Monte":[107],"Carlo":[108],"simulation":[109],"is":[111],"proposed":[112,122],"find":[114],"investing":[116,147],"probabilities":[117],"years.":[120],"The":[121,143],"models":[123],"are":[124,167],"applied":[125],"steel":[128],"case":[132],"Port":[135],"of":[136,141,153],"Bengbu":[137],"Anhui":[139],"province":[140],"China.":[142],"impacts":[144],"on":[145],"probability":[148],"changes":[154],"demand":[157],"volatility,":[158],"initial":[160],"discharging":[165],"rate":[166],"analyzed":[168],"provide":[170],"managerial":[171],"insights":[172],"managers.":[175]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-08-15T07:11:24.734988","created_date":"2017-01-06T00:00:00"}