{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2323957016","doi":null,"title":"Forecasting the 2015 General Election with Internet Big Data: An Application of the TRUST Framework","display_name":"Forecasting the 2015 General Election with Internet Big Data: An Application of the TRUST Framework","publication_year":2015,"publication_date":"2015-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2323957016","mag":"2323957016"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:gla:glaewp:2016_03","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_440128_en.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_440128_en.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022346421","display_name":"Ronald McDonald","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ronald McDonald","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028391616","display_name":"Xuxin Mao","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4029-1776","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4029-1776"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xuxin Mao","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4029-1776","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":8,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.7890999913215637,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.7890999913215637,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.027300000190734863,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.02280000038444996,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2015-uk-general-election","display_name":"2015 UK general election","score":0.8669999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/election-forecasting","display_name":"election forecasting","score":0.9829999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/big-data","display_name":"big data","score":0.7639999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/google-trends","display_name":"Google Trends","score":0.8119999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trust-framework","display_name":"trust framework","score":0.8330000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-opinion-survey","display_name":"public opinion survey","score":0.7590000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/real-time-forecasting","display_name":"real-time prediction","score":0.6769999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-forecasting","display_name":"political forecasting","score":0.36800000071525574}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6505999565124512},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110875604","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q75","display_name":"The Internet","level":2,"score":0.6398923397064209},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C59742305","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1076105","display_name":"General election","level":3,"score":0.6152199506759644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75684735","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q858810","display_name":"Big data","level":2,"score":0.5975301265716553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.5648318529129028},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520643","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.5517897605895996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.5507116317749023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.4816388189792633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.44321417808532715},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4219367504119873},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.2713216543197632},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.1842706799507141},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.13631495833396912},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.12916791439056396},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.10477784276008606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:gla:glaewp:2016_03","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_440128_en.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_440128_en.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:2323957016","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gla:glaewp:2016_03","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":29,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W137217113","https://openalex.org/W198351796","https://openalex.org/W282010338","https://openalex.org/W590955512","https://openalex.org/W1545675329","https://openalex.org/W1572930125","https://openalex.org/W1880262756","https://openalex.org/W1981023312","https://openalex.org/W1981229576","https://openalex.org/W1996242309","https://openalex.org/W2008534646","https://openalex.org/W2009477869","https://openalex.org/W2032710032","https://openalex.org/W2067805314","https://openalex.org/W2076441291","https://openalex.org/W2079075586","https://openalex.org/W2085617229","https://openalex.org/W2090118311","https://openalex.org/W2091689240","https://openalex.org/W2091719083","https://openalex.org/W2099865247","https://openalex.org/W2104496040","https://openalex.org/W2112778351","https://openalex.org/W2119382268","https://openalex.org/W2161945764","https://openalex.org/W2164231312","https://openalex.org/W2166119588","https://openalex.org/W2168332560","https://openalex.org/W2540795244"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W6960015395","https://openalex.org/W1989570706","https://openalex.org/W2168955850","https://openalex.org/W2076441291","https://openalex.org/W2561719676","https://openalex.org/W2587614381","https://openalex.org/W2092051469","https://openalex.org/W3135861624","https://openalex.org/W2187826436","https://openalex.org/W2067519854"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Many":[0],"variables,":[1,108],"such":[2,33,116],"as":[3,117],"currencies,":[4],"are":[5,165],"very":[6,166],"difficult":[7,68],"to":[8,69,102,168],"predict":[9,103],"and":[10,51,105,159],"often":[11],"researchers":[12],"demonstrate":[13,94],"that":[14,32,55,95],"a":[15,22,56,85],"simple":[16],"random":[17],"walk":[18],"process":[19],"can":[20,35,120],"out-perform":[21],"model-based":[23],"forecast":[24],"using":[25],"fundamentals.":[26],"However,":[27],"there":[28],"is":[29,61],"increasing":[30],"evidence":[31],"results":[34],"be":[36],"overturned":[37],"with":[38,78,110],"the":[39,47,72,79,96,124,134,140,145,156,163,169],"use":[40,73],"of":[41,74,98,139,154,162],"rich":[42,57],"enough":[43,58],"dynamic":[44],"processes":[45],"in":[46,88],"underlying":[48],"statistical":[49,99],"modelling":[50],"also":[52,65],"by":[53],"ensuring":[54],"information":[59,111],"set":[60],"used.":[62],"Elections":[63],"have":[64],"become":[66],"increasingly":[67,75],"predict,":[70],"despite":[71],"sophisticated":[76],"methods,":[77],"2015":[80,147],"UK":[81,146,158],"General":[82,148],"Election":[83],"being":[84],"good":[86],"case":[87],"point.":[89],"In":[90],"this":[91],"paper":[92,132],"we":[93],"kind":[97],"methods":[100],"used":[101],"currencies":[104],"other":[106],"financial":[107],"combined":[109],"culled":[112],"from":[113],"internet":[114],"sources":[115],"Google":[118],"trends,":[119],"greatly":[121],"improve":[122],"on":[123,128],"predictions":[125,153],"based":[126],"solely":[127],"opinion":[129],"polls.":[130],"This":[131],"offers":[133],"first":[135],"real":[136,151],"time":[137,152],"test":[138],"so-called":[141],"Big":[142],"Data":[143],"for":[144],"Election.":[149],"Our":[150],"both":[155],"overall":[157],"Scottish":[160],"components":[161],"election":[164],"close":[167],"actual":[170],"outcomes.":[171]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-09-26T08:19:03.415552","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}