{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2287389792","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mtahw","title":"Probability Distributions of Common Repeated Events Are Misestimated.","display_name":"Probability Distributions of Common Repeated Events Are Misestimated.","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-09-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2287389792","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mtahw","mag":"2287389792"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.31234/osf.io/mtahw","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mtahw","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mtahw","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058051316","display_name":"Oleg Urminsky","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4390-386X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4390-386X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40347166","display_name":"University of Chicago","ror":"https://ror.org/024mw5h28","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40347166"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Oleg Urminsky","raw_affiliation_strings":["North Com-munications Inc Faculty Research Fund at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business","University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA","University of Chicago, Booth School"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"North Com-munications Inc Faculty Research Fund at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40347166"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40347166"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Chicago, Booth School","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40347166"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5058051316"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40347166"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9833999872207642,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9833999872207642,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.008299999870359898,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13500","display_name":"Probability and Statistical Research","score":0.0017999999690800905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-judgment","display_name":"probability judgment","score":0.6790000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/repeated-events","display_name":"repeated events","score":0.5860000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-distributions","display_name":"probability distributions","score":0.414000004529953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-updating","display_name":"Bayesian updating","score":0.5669999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/belief-elicitation","display_name":"belief elicitation","score":0.6230000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-bias","display_name":"cognitive biases","score":0.5529999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-reasoning","display_name":"statistical reasoning","score":0.5690000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/experts-versus-novices","display_name":"experts versus novices","score":0.746999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-making-under-uncertainty","display_name":"decision making under uncertainty","score":0.48500001430511475}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.6778456568717957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5897588133811951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5246574878692627},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.48634225130081177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.4744319021701813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.4514535665512085},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.4509914219379425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.4417400360107422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.32227492332458496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.31234/osf.io/mtahw","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mtahw","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mtahw","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:share.osf.io:7aea712e-de50-44bf-ad03-2ed8df1aec8c","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://osf.io/mtahw","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401687","display_name":"PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:share.osf.io:E006B-60A-7C2","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://doi.org/10.31234/OSF.IO/MTAHW","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401687","display_name":"PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"preprint"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":40,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W208148649","https://openalex.org/W1582923152","https://openalex.org/W1590531044","https://openalex.org/W1941720322","https://openalex.org/W1967708673","https://openalex.org/W1973696042","https://openalex.org/W1976624377","https://openalex.org/W1990742509","https://openalex.org/W2017357931","https://openalex.org/W2018366641","https://openalex.org/W2018979902","https://openalex.org/W2023087011","https://openalex.org/W2026235186","https://openalex.org/W2035415872","https://openalex.org/W2041946752","https://openalex.org/W2042203065","https://openalex.org/W2061173121","https://openalex.org/W2085487226","https://openalex.org/W2106145030","https://openalex.org/W2108264376","https://openalex.org/W2120492617","https://openalex.org/W2121252294","https://openalex.org/W2124482936","https://openalex.org/W2125829561","https://openalex.org/W2127775068","https://openalex.org/W2132003317","https://openalex.org/W2132726456","https://openalex.org/W2147231083","https://openalex.org/W2147565549","https://openalex.org/W2151274689","https://openalex.org/W2168485380","https://openalex.org/W2990384283","https://openalex.org/W3123045587","https://openalex.org/W3125897576","https://openalex.org/W4236699391","https://openalex.org/W4242401062","https://openalex.org/W4253060983","https://openalex.org/W4292157289","https://openalex.org/W4301913379","https://openalex.org/W4309066014"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2397254997","https://openalex.org/W2103419213","https://openalex.org/W2024924969","https://openalex.org/W3169776825","https://openalex.org/W2786136439","https://openalex.org/W2786985713","https://openalex.org/W3101713375","https://openalex.org/W2014535448","https://openalex.org/W2084356824","https://openalex.org/W7095838124"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Accurately":[0],"estimating":[1],"the":[2,14,54,64,68,70,74,108],"prospective":[3,126],"probability":[4],"distribution":[5],"arising":[6],"from":[7],"repeatedevents":[8],"with":[9,132],"known":[10],"probabilities,":[11],"such":[12],"as":[13],"number":[15,109],"of":[16,37],"heads":[17],"in":[18,32,35,120],"ten":[19],"coin":[20],"flips,":[21],"represents":[22],"asimple":[23],"aptitude":[24],"necessary":[25],"for":[26],"explicit":[27,125],"Bayesian":[28,117],"updating":[29],"and":[30,43,66,103],"useful":[31],"optimal":[33],"decisions":[34],"theface":[36],"future":[38],"uncertainty.":[39],"Across":[40],"elicitation":[41],"methods":[42],"decision":[44],"scenarios,":[45],"people":[46],"expressbeliefs":[47],"that":[48],"are":[49,80],"systematically":[50],"biased":[51],"relative":[52,72],"to":[53,73,96],"actual":[55,75],"distribution.":[56],"Participant":[57],"beliefs":[58,127],"reflecta":[59],"\u201cwizard-hat\u201d":[60],"shaped":[61],"distribution,":[62,71],"over-estimating":[63],"tails":[65],"under-estimating":[67],"shouldersof":[69],"bell-curve":[76],"shape.":[77],"While":[78],"experts":[79],"relatively":[81],"moreaccurate":[82],"than":[83],"novices,":[84],"both":[85],"show":[86],"significant":[87],"bias.":[88],"The":[89,112],"bias":[90],"is":[91,104],"not":[92],"explained":[93],"by":[94,106],"regression":[95],"themean,":[97],"random":[98],"error":[99],"or":[100],"participant":[101],"heterogeneity,":[102],"exacerbated":[105],"increasing":[107],"ofrepeated":[110],"events.":[111],"findings":[113],"caution":[114],"against":[115],"assuming":[116],"belief":[118],"formation":[119],"models":[121],"ofstatistical":[122],"reasoning":[123],"about":[124],"based":[128],"on":[129],"repeated":[130],"events":[131],"knownprobabilities.":[133]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-09-26T08:19:03.415552","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
