{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2267973271","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","title":"Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space","display_name":"Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space","publication_year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-01-19","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2267973271","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","mag":"2267973271","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26786205"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","pdf_url":"https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-pdf/53/1/55/836645/55gunther.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S30543418","display_name":"Demography","issn_l":"0070-3370","issn":["0070-3370","1533-7790"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Demography","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-pdf/53/1/55/836645/55gunther.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038217003","display_name":"Isabel G\u00fcnther","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1601-0495","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1601-0495","https://orcid.org/0009-0008-4855-0139"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I35440088","display_name":"ETH Zurich","ror":"https://ror.org/05a28rw58","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799323385","https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Isabel G\u00fcnther","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Development and Cooperation, ETH Zurich, Clausiusstrasse 37, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Development and Cooperation, ETH Zurich, Clausiusstrasse 37, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065375190","display_name":"Kenneth Harttgen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8499-5281","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8499-5281"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I35440088","display_name":"ETH Zurich","ror":"https://ror.org/05a28rw58","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799323385","https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Kenneth Harttgen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Development and Cooperation, ETH Zurich, Clausiusstrasse 37, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Development and Cooperation, ETH Zurich, Clausiusstrasse 37, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5038217003","https://openalex.org/A5065375190"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35440088"],"apc_list":{"value":2750,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2750},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":20.522,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":83,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99267839,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"53","issue":"1","first_page":"55","last_page":"83"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12728","display_name":"Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences","score":0.4912000000476837,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3318","display_name":"Gender Studies"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12728","display_name":"Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences","score":0.4912000000476837,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3318","display_name":"Gender Studies"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10600","display_name":"Reproductive Health and Contraception","score":0.48559999465942383,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10585","display_name":"Family Dynamics and Relationships","score":0.014000000432133675,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/desired-fertility","display_name":"desired fertility","score":0.8629999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/unwanted-births","display_name":"unwanted births","score":0.5550000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fertility-decline","display_name":"fertility decline","score":0.6380000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/family-planning","display_name":"family planning","score":0.7559999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/children-s-preferences","display_name":"children's preferences","score":0.6370000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/number-of-children","display_name":"number of children","score":0.5680000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/developing-countries","display_name":"developing countries","score":0.8029999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fertility-determinants","display_name":"fertility determinants","score":0.3149999976158142}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C518429986","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q964401","display_name":"Fertility","level":3,"score":0.7846653461456299},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.5233349204063416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3933488428592682},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.37458157539367676},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4249254","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3044431","display_name":"Demographic economics","level":1,"score":0.3471006453037262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.2608325183391571},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.23095735907554626}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000349","descriptor_name":"Africa","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000349","descriptor_name":"Africa","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000349","descriptor_name":"Africa","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001723","descriptor_name":"Birth Rate","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001723","descriptor_name":"Birth Rate","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001723","descriptor_name":"Birth Rate","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002676","descriptor_name":"Child, Unwanted","qualifier_ui":"Q000266","qualifier_name":"history","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002676","descriptor_name":"Child, Unwanted","qualifier_ui":"Q000266","qualifier_name":"history","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002676","descriptor_name":"Child, Unwanted","qualifier_ui":"Q000266","qualifier_name":"history","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002676","descriptor_name":"Child, Unwanted","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002676","descriptor_name":"Child, Unwanted","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002676","descriptor_name":"Child, Unwanted","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005298","descriptor_name":"Fertility","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005298","descriptor_name":"Fertility","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005298","descriptor_name":"Fertility","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D006291","descriptor_name":"Health Policy","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006291","descriptor_name":"Health Policy","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006291","descriptor_name":"Health Policy","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007231","descriptor_name":"Infant, Newborn","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007231","descriptor_name":"Infant, Newborn","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007231","descriptor_name":"Infant, Newborn","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011158","descriptor_name":"Population Growth","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D011158","descriptor_name":"Population Growth","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D011158","descriptor_name":"Population Growth","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D019049","descriptor_name":"Developed Countries","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019049","descriptor_name":"Developed Countries","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019049","descriptor_name":"Developed Countries","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D049673","descriptor_name":"History, 20th Century","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D049673","descriptor_name":"History, 20th Century","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D049673","descriptor_name":"History, 20th Century","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","pdf_url":"https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-pdf/53/1/55/836645/55gunther.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S30543418","display_name":"Demography","issn_l":"0070-3370","issn":["0070-3370","1533-7790"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Demography","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:26786205","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26786205","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Demography","raw_type":"Historical Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:spr:demogr:v:53:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s13524-015-0451-9","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9","pdf_url":"https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-pdf/53/1/55/836645/55gunther.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S30543418","display_name":"Demography","issn_l":"0070-3370","issn":["0070-3370","1533-7790"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Demography","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/5","display_name":"Gender equality","score":0.6025999784469604}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2267973271.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2267973271.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":61,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W86475145","https://openalex.org/W106050764","https://openalex.org/W145605912","https://openalex.org/W1482821381","https://openalex.org/W1512836294","https://openalex.org/W1554248266","https://openalex.org/W1569384484","https://openalex.org/W1625014666","https://openalex.org/W1654669120","https://openalex.org/W1662809549","https://openalex.org/W1933161726","https://openalex.org/W1963515373","https://openalex.org/W1986440744","https://openalex.org/W2001021105","https://openalex.org/W2007280771","https://openalex.org/W2014679146","https://openalex.org/W2021682474","https://openalex.org/W2035564451","https://openalex.org/W2038175213","https://openalex.org/W2040484630","https://openalex.org/W2044128460","https://openalex.org/W2047401886","https://openalex.org/W2048023353","https://openalex.org/W2048133923","https://openalex.org/W2049300161","https://openalex.org/W2061303011","https://openalex.org/W2062055273","https://openalex.org/W2063553902","https://openalex.org/W2077914392","https://openalex.org/W2080607170","https://openalex.org/W2080975539","https://openalex.org/W2081276448","https://openalex.org/W2082817443","https://openalex.org/W2088321962","https://openalex.org/W2104706853","https://openalex.org/W2104974133","https://openalex.org/W2113247037","https://openalex.org/W2116790356","https://openalex.org/W2121402688","https://openalex.org/W2131176575","https://openalex.org/W2160178725","https://openalex.org/W2165264807","https://openalex.org/W2189446771","https://openalex.org/W2285416252","https://openalex.org/W2302832371","https://openalex.org/W2317307457","https://openalex.org/W2320201575","https://openalex.org/W2322155294","https://openalex.org/W2462786869","https://openalex.org/W2472388389","https://openalex.org/W2492462947","https://openalex.org/W2563725323","https://openalex.org/W2726679286","https://openalex.org/W3124058059","https://openalex.org/W3165064679","https://openalex.org/W4229690794","https://openalex.org/W4245002513","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4289258041","https://openalex.org/W6603478530","https://openalex.org/W6684617820"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W171449962","https://openalex.org/W2366438013","https://openalex.org/W2374944874","https://openalex.org/W3123300091","https://openalex.org/W2051347284","https://openalex.org/W2367264797","https://openalex.org/W2170669442","https://openalex.org/W3148223531","https://openalex.org/W2289483373"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Economists":[0],"have":[1,156],"often":[2],"argued":[3],"that":[4,96],"high":[5],"fertility":[6,27,49,154,161,182],"rates":[7],"are":[8,134],"mainly":[9],"driven":[10],"by":[11,18],"women's":[12],"demand":[13,155],"for":[14,35,62,159],"children":[15,53],"(and":[16,30],"not":[17],"family":[19,36],"planning":[20,37,168],"efforts)":[21],"with":[22,32,82],"low":[23],"levels":[24],"of":[25,52,58,104],"unwanted":[26,105],"across":[28,111],"countries":[29,113,133],"hence":[31],"little":[33],"room":[34],"efforts":[38,169],"to":[39,87,121,123,137],"reduce":[40],"population":[41],"growth).":[42],"We":[43],"study":[44],"the":[45,98,102,173],"relationship":[46,76],"between":[47,77],"wanted":[48,78],"and":[50,66,79,150,176],"number":[51],"born":[54],"in":[55,97,125,131,146,163,179],"a":[56,74],"panel":[57],"200":[59],"country-years":[60],"controlling":[61],"country":[63],"fixed":[64],"effects":[65],"global":[67],"time":[68],"trends.":[69],"In":[70],"general,":[71],"we":[72],"find":[73],"close":[75,122],"actual":[80],"fertility,":[81],"one":[83,88],"desired":[84,181],"child":[85,139],"leading":[86],"additional":[89],"birth.":[90],"However,":[91],"our":[92],"results":[93],"also":[94],"indicate":[95],"last":[99],"20":[100],"years,":[101],"level":[103],"births":[106],"has":[107],"stayed":[108],"at":[109],"2":[110],"African":[112,132],"but":[114],"has,":[115],"on":[116],"average,":[117],"decreased":[118],"from":[119],"1":[120],"0":[124],"other":[126,147,152],"developing":[127,148,165],"countries.":[128,166],"Hence,":[129],"women":[130,145],"less":[135],"able":[136],"translate":[138],"preferences":[140],"into":[141],"birth":[142],"outcomes":[143],"than":[144,153],"countries,":[149],"forces":[151],"been":[157],"important":[158],"previous":[160],"declines":[162],"many":[164],"Family":[167],"only":[170],"partially":[171],"explain":[172],"observed":[174],"temporal":[175],"spatial":[177],"differences":[178],"achieving":[180],"levels.":[183]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}