{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2204893541","doi":null,"title":"Conditional Probability is the Very Guide of Life","display_name":"Conditional Probability is the Very Guide of Life","publication_year":2003,"publication_date":"2003-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2204893541","mag":"2204893541"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au:1885/55796","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/1885/55796","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402539","display_name":"ANU Open Research (Australian National University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I118347636","host_organization_name":"Australian National University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I118347636"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Book chapter"},"volume":null,"type":"book-chapter","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082132458","display_name":"Alan H\u00e1jek","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2315-2114","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2315-2114"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Alan H\u00e1jek","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2315-2114","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5082132458"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":9.6694,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":39,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97993827,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":87,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13500","display_name":"Probability and Statistical Research","score":0.5580999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13500","display_name":"Probability and Statistical Research","score":0.5580999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14460","display_name":"Literary, Cultural, Historical Analysis","score":0.23819999396800995,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1211","display_name":"Philosophy"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/12","display_name":"Arts and Humanities"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11477","display_name":"Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics","score":0.0731000006198883,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1211","display_name":"Philosophy"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/12","display_name":"Arts and Humanities"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reference-class-problem","display_name":"reference class problem","score":0.996999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conditional-probability","display_name":"conditional probability","score":0.9459999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interpretations-of-probability","display_name":"interpretations of probability","score":0.9459999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/frequentist-interpretation","display_name":"frequentist interpretation","score":0.7200000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/classical-interpretation","display_name":"classical interpretation","score":0.7429999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logical-interpretation","display_name":"logical interpretation","score":0.9559999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/propensity-interpretation","display_name":"propensity interpretation","score":0.9879999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/kolmogorov-axioms","display_name":"Kolmogorov axioms","score":0.8830000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conditionalization","display_name":"conditionalization","score":0.367000013589859}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44492722","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q327069","display_name":"Conditional probability","level":2,"score":0.8024784326553345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C527412718","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q855395","display_name":"Interpretation (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.6747352480888367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75455068","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1455566","display_name":"Frequentist probability","level":3,"score":0.6720824241638184},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49698424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1989192","display_name":"Law of total probability","level":4,"score":0.6218181252479553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162376815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2158281","display_name":"Frequentist inference","level":4,"score":0.6143015623092651},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.6011905074119568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103982235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7309594","display_name":"Regular conditional probability","level":4,"score":0.5424445867538452},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.5111408829689026},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C130648207","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6007562","display_name":"Imprecise probability","level":3,"score":0.4720348119735718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777026412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2684591","display_name":"Statement (logic)","level":2,"score":0.4673350751399994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777212361","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5127848","display_name":"Class (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.45420074462890625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43596424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q98124957","display_name":"Probability and statistics","level":2,"score":0.429465115070343},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122203268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5862903","display_name":"Probability theory","level":2,"score":0.41221195459365845},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21031990","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q355020","display_name":"Probability measure","level":2,"score":0.3959098756313324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.3299732208251953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.32950296998023987},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.23761552572250366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118615104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121416","display_name":"Discrete mathematics","level":1,"score":0.2131827473640442},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.19204595685005188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57830394","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278079","display_name":"Posterior probability","level":3,"score":0.17557507753372192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.172512024641037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197096303","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q869887","display_name":"Probability mass function","level":3,"score":0.17002862691879272},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.13672739267349243},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.13002249598503113},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au:1885/55796","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/1885/55796","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402539","display_name":"ANU Open Research (Australian National University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I118347636","host_organization_name":"Australian National University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I118347636"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Book chapter"},{"id":"mag:2204893541","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/Proceedings/y2002/Files/JSM2002-001180.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306477198","display_name":"Open Court eBooks","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"ebook platform"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Open Court eBooks","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":17,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W211313859","https://openalex.org/W1510271585","https://openalex.org/W1571008965","https://openalex.org/W1586505836","https://openalex.org/W1973943855","https://openalex.org/W1975296881","https://openalex.org/W2027948337","https://openalex.org/W2031992701","https://openalex.org/W2036108938","https://openalex.org/W2081812514","https://openalex.org/W2095458500","https://openalex.org/W2111682202","https://openalex.org/W2128785381","https://openalex.org/W2191290709","https://openalex.org/W2767443199","https://openalex.org/W2801599921","https://openalex.org/W4242534497"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2152648747","https://openalex.org/W2026741434","https://openalex.org/W2063260435","https://openalex.org/W2128785381","https://openalex.org/W4229539882","https://openalex.org/W2736558300","https://openalex.org/W4367677337","https://openalex.org/W639586958","https://openalex.org/W4252009544","https://openalex.org/W7098687776"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Everyone":[0],"knows":[1],"that":[2,16,170,209,216,232,276],"the":[3,11,24,59,70,75,86,112,150,164,197,200,223,236,247,262,265,274,287],"reference":[4,113,266],"class":[5,114,267],"problem":[6,9,38,101,106,115,148,268,280],"is":[7,28,31,36,47,95,104,172,258,278,284],"a":[8,37,55,96,100,105,147,160,174,279],"for":[10,39,68,102,107,121,149,286,295],"frequentist":[12,76],"interpretation":[13,151],"of":[14,51,58,73,78,144,152,166,180,186,222,239,250,264,290],"probability\u2014everyone,":[15],"is,":[17,111],"who":[18],"worries":[19],"about":[20,163],"such":[21],"things":[22],"in":[23,44,80,98,206,220],"first":[25,42],"place.":[26],"What":[27],"not":[29,117],"well-known":[30],"that,":[32],"suitably":[33],"qualified,":[34],"it":[35,66,128,145,158,277,283],"everyone.":[40],"My":[41,253],"goal":[43,255],"this":[45,52],"paper":[46],"to":[48,142,203,259,273,298,302],"convince":[49],"you":[50],"by":[53],"giving":[54],"general":[56],"statement":[57],"problem,":[60],"and":[61,90,215,242,293],"then":[62],"systematically":[63],"showing":[64],"how":[65,261],"arises":[67],"all":[69,131,177],"leading":[71],"interpretations":[72,124],"probability:":[74],"interpretation,":[77],"course,":[79],"its":[81,135],"various":[82],"guises,":[83],"but":[84],"also":[85],"classical,":[87],"logical,":[88],"propensity":[89],"subjectivist":[91],"interpretations.":[92],"But":[93],"there":[94],"sense":[97],"which":[99],"everyone":[103],"no":[108],"one.":[109],"That":[110],"does":[116],"give":[118],"us":[119],"grounds":[120],"favoring":[122],"some":[123],"over":[125],"others,":[126],"since":[127],"besets":[129],"them":[130],"indiscriminately.":[132],"And":[133],"given":[134],"seeming":[136],"inevitability,":[137],"perhaps":[138],"we":[139,233],"were":[140],"wrong":[141],"think":[143],"as":[146,187,213,246],"probability":[153,171,178,212,219,241,245,251,301],"at":[154,189,281],"all.":[155],"Perhaps,":[156],"rather,":[157],"reveals":[159],"fundamental":[161],"fact":[162],"nature":[165],"probability.":[167,304],"I":[168,227],"contend":[169],"essentially":[173],"two-place":[175],"notion:":[176],"statements":[179],"any":[181,296],"interest":[182],"should":[183,234],"be":[184],"thought":[185],"being":[188],"least":[190],"tacitly":[191,193],"relativized,":[192],"conditional.":[194],"This":[195],"turns":[196],"tables":[198],"on":[199],"traditional":[201],"approach":[202],"probability,":[204,292],"enshrined":[205],"Kolmogorov's":[207],"axiomatization,":[208],"sees":[210],"unconditional":[211,303],"fundamental,":[214],"analyzes":[217],"conditional":[218,240,244,291,300],"terms":[221],"usual":[224],"ratio":[225,237,288],"formula.":[226],"have":[228],"argued":[229],"elsewhere":[230],"(forthcoming)":[231],"reject":[235],"analysis":[238,289],"take":[243],"proper":[248],"primitive":[249],"theory.":[252],"second":[254],"here,":[256],"then,":[257],"show":[260],"ubiquity":[263],"only":[269],"reinforces":[270],"these":[271],"conclusions:":[272],"extent":[275],"all,":[282],"one":[285],"indeed":[294],"attempt":[297],"reduce":[299]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}