{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2187198380","doi":null,"title":"Decision Market Predictions: Separating Efficiency and Bias *","display_name":"Decision Market Predictions: Separating Efficiency and Bias *","publication_year":2005,"publication_date":"2005-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2187198380","mag":"2187198380"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"mag:2187198380","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://economics.stanford.edu/files/Theses/Theses_2005/Bean.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},"volume":null,"type":"dissertation","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Glenn E. Bean","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6111-1017","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6111-1017"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Glenn E. Bean","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6111-1017","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":4,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.444599986076355,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.444599986076355,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.40059998631477356,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.04969999939203262,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/information-market","display_name":"information market","score":0.8059999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-markets","display_name":"prediction markets","score":0.8870000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/contingent-contracts","display_name":"contingent contracts","score":0.7720000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/market-efficiency","display_name":"market efficiency","score":0.6520000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/estimation-bias","display_name":"estimation bias","score":0.6570000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/policy-advice","display_name":"policy advice","score":0.3580000102519989}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1357284","display_name":"Popularity","level":2,"score":0.8391554355621338},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.51795494556427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4679612","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q866298","display_name":"Aggregate (composite)","level":2,"score":0.4769148528575897},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185429906","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130160","display_name":"Estimator","level":2,"score":0.4733210504055023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89611455","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804646","display_name":"Mechanism (biology)","level":2,"score":0.4137362241744995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986046992","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16773055","display_name":"Information aggregation","level":2,"score":0.4130555987358093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175444787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39072","display_name":"Microeconomics","level":1,"score":0.40679776668548584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4039904475212097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.36869490146636963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.29908961057662964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.1664028763771057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.1512955129146576},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.08529219031333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.0829218327999115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228736","display_name":"Materials science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159985019","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181790","display_name":"Composite material","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"mag:2187198380","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://economics.stanford.edu/files/Theses/Theses_2005/Bean.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":23,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W146056216","https://openalex.org/W618991820","https://openalex.org/W1503457370","https://openalex.org/W1538844734","https://openalex.org/W1603577318","https://openalex.org/W1605255363","https://openalex.org/W1967611006","https://openalex.org/W1968396759","https://openalex.org/W1986096635","https://openalex.org/W2006553348","https://openalex.org/W2008123798","https://openalex.org/W2042651232","https://openalex.org/W2049227155","https://openalex.org/W2050031929","https://openalex.org/W2094660278","https://openalex.org/W2102546791","https://openalex.org/W2104908147","https://openalex.org/W2136453092","https://openalex.org/W2143509009","https://openalex.org/W2148919605","https://openalex.org/W2165639205","https://openalex.org/W2170087129","https://openalex.org/W2891132906"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7101065684","https://openalex.org/W2264908271","https://openalex.org/W2342149562","https://openalex.org/W7161549707","https://openalex.org/W7096247758","https://openalex.org/W1591035273","https://openalex.org/W2063346304","https://openalex.org/W1973485579","https://openalex.org/W4400253035","https://openalex.org/W7099001948"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Information":[0],"markets":[1,50],"provide":[2],"a":[3,83,86],"revolutionary":[4],"mechanism":[5],"for":[6,26,42,54,85],"revealing":[7],"aggregate":[8],"knowledge.":[9],"They":[10],"continue":[11,19],"to":[12,20,33,92],"gain":[13],"popularity":[14],"in":[15],"academic":[16],"circles":[17],"and":[18,90],"prove":[21],"themselves":[22],"through":[23,95],"successful":[24],"prediction":[25],"practical":[27],"applications.":[28],"Policy":[29],"makers":[30],"have":[31],"shown":[32],"be":[34,52],"wary":[35],"of":[36,60,71],"depending":[37],"upon":[38],"their":[39],"results":[40],"exclusively":[41],"decision-making,":[43],"but":[44],"there":[45],"is":[46],"evidence":[47],"that":[48,66],"information":[49,61],"could":[51],"used":[53],"relevant":[55],"advising.":[56],"One":[57],"particular":[58],"type":[59],"market":[62],"uses":[63],"contingent":[64],"contracts":[65],"speculate":[67],"about":[68],"unrealized":[69],"states":[70],"the":[72],"world.":[73],"These":[74],"estimates":[75],"hold":[76],"an":[77],"inherent":[78],"bias.":[79],"This":[80],"study":[81],"develops":[82],"model":[84],"more":[87],"efficient":[88],"estimator":[89],"how":[91],"acquire":[93],"it":[94],"conventional":[96],"contracts.":[97]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-09-29T14:09:16.559479","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
