{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2171383045","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01336.x","title":"Conundrums with Uncertainty Factors","display_name":"Conundrums with Uncertainty Factors","publication_year":2009,"publication_date":"2009-12-17","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2171383045","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01336.x","mag":"2171383045","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20030767"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01336.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01336.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01336.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S161248890","display_name":"Risk Analysis","issn_l":"0272-4332","issn":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Risk Analysis","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023863881","display_name":"Roger M. Cooke","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0643-1971","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0643-1971"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801278523","display_name":"Resources For The Future","ror":"https://ror.org/04qpegs24","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801278523"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98358874","display_name":"Delft University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02e2c7k09","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98358874"]}],"countries":["NL","US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Roger Cooke","raw_affiliation_strings":["Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, and Department of Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands. cooke@rff.org"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, and Department of Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands. cooke@rff.org","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801278523","https://openalex.org/I98358874"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5023863881"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801278523","https://openalex.org/I98358874"],"apc_list":{"value":4880,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4880},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.4809,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":14,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.89615595,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"30","issue":"3","first_page":"330","last_page":"339"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11357","display_name":"Risk and Safety Analysis","score":0.6948000192642212,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11357","display_name":"Risk and Safety Analysis","score":0.6948000192642212,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13165","display_name":"Agricultural safety and regulations","score":0.06560000032186508,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1106","display_name":"Food Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11890","display_name":"Scientific Measurement and Uncertainty Evaluation","score":0.0551999993622303,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-factors","display_name":"uncertainty factors","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/iris-database","display_name":"IRIS database","score":0.7310000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/safety-margin","display_name":"safety margin","score":0.7879999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-interpretation","display_name":"probabilistic interpretation","score":0.5360000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/response-rate","display_name":"response rate","score":0.5109999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/animal-to-human-extrapolation","display_name":"animal-to-human extrapolation","score":0.8220000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covariance-matrix-singularity","display_name":"covariance matrix singularity","score":0.6769999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-quantification","display_name":"risk quantification","score":0.5870000123977661}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.39294224977493286},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.36762869358062744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.3529641628265381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.18330249190330505}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D009010","descriptor_name":"Monte Carlo Method","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011336","descriptor_name":"Probability","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012016","descriptor_name":"Reference Values","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012306","descriptor_name":"Risk","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012449","descriptor_name":"Safety","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016208","descriptor_name":"Databases, Factual","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01336.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01336.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01336.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S161248890","display_name":"Risk Analysis","issn_l":"0272-4332","issn":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Risk Analysis","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:20030767","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20030767","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1970974947","https://openalex.org/W1974577334","https://openalex.org/W1975436708","https://openalex.org/W1975782520","https://openalex.org/W1979502498","https://openalex.org/W1986404509","https://openalex.org/W2000613120","https://openalex.org/W2003863166","https://openalex.org/W2004458991","https://openalex.org/W2020943814","https://openalex.org/W2049875817","https://openalex.org/W2056133404","https://openalex.org/W2058891183","https://openalex.org/W2063008477","https://openalex.org/W2080137665","https://openalex.org/W2132810494","https://openalex.org/W2135050213","https://openalex.org/W2138633646","https://openalex.org/W2138672858","https://openalex.org/W2155126430","https://openalex.org/W2158417480","https://openalex.org/W2289192654","https://openalex.org/W3135856140","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W6705117348"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2419635168","https://openalex.org/W2085329987","https://openalex.org/W2108902514","https://openalex.org/W1970974947","https://openalex.org/W7006779987","https://openalex.org/W1975436708","https://openalex.org/W2157626116","https://openalex.org/W2978593736","https://openalex.org/W2397695686","https://openalex.org/W4223438146"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,222],"practice":[1,125,223],"of":[2,34,67,101,126,176,219,224],"uncertainty":[3,57,103,127,134,203,214,225],"factors":[4,58,128,135,226],"as":[5,65],"applied":[6],"to":[7,16,29,46,50,77,85,153],"noncancer":[8],"endpoints":[9],"in":[10,31,198],"the":[11,21,41,72,78,99,102,108,123,141,147,156,159,173,177,186,194],"IRIS":[12,79],"database":[13],"harkens":[14],"back":[15],"traditional":[17],"safety":[18,42],"factors.":[19,104],"In":[20,183],"era":[22],"before":[23],"risk":[24,37,48],"quantification,":[25],"these":[26,169,207],"were":[27],"used":[28],"build":[30],"a":[32,62,190,217,230],"\"margin":[33],"safety.\"":[35],"As":[36],"quantification":[38],"takes":[39],"hold,":[40],"factor":[43,148],"methods":[44],"yield":[45],"quantitative":[47],"calculations":[49],"guarantee":[51],"safety.":[52],"Many":[53],"authors":[54,120],"believe":[55],"that":[56,71,122,172,201],"can":[59,81,90],"be":[60,83,91],"given":[61],"probabilistic":[63,117],"interpretation":[64],"ratios":[66],"response":[68,143,179,195],"rates,":[69],"and":[70,244],"reference":[73],"values":[74],"computed":[75,92],"according":[76],"methodology":[80],"thus":[82],"converted":[84],"random":[86],"variables":[87],"whose":[88],"distributions":[89,100],"with":[93,166],"Monte":[94],"Carlo":[95],"methods,":[96],"based":[97,205,239,246],"on":[98,116,140,206,216,240,247],"Recent":[105],"proposals":[106],"from":[107,151],"National":[109],"Research":[110],"Council":[111],"echo":[112],"this":[113],"view.":[114],"Based":[115],"arguments,":[118],"several":[119],"claim":[121],"current":[124],"is":[129,155,161,181,209,227],"overprotective.":[130],"When":[131],"interpreted":[132],"probabilistically,":[133],"entail":[136,171,189],"very":[137],"strong":[138],"assumptions":[139,170,188,208],"underlying":[142],"rates.":[144,196],"For":[145],"example,":[146],"for":[149,229],"extrapolating":[150],"animal":[152],"human":[154],"same":[157],"whether":[158],"dosage":[160],"chronic":[162],"or":[163],"subchronic.":[164],"Together":[165],"independence":[167],"assumptions,":[168],"covariance":[174],"matrix":[175],"logged":[178],"rates":[180],"singular.":[182],"other":[184],"words,":[185],"accumulated":[187],"log-linear":[191],"dependence":[192],"between":[193],"This":[197],"turn":[199],"means":[200],"any":[202],"analysis":[204],"ill-conditioned;":[210],"it":[211],"effectively":[212],"computes":[213],"conditional":[215],"set":[218],"zero":[220],"probability.":[221],"due":[228],"thorough":[231],"review.":[232],"Two":[233],"directions":[234],"are":[235],"briefly":[236],"sketched,":[237],"one":[238,245],"standard":[241],"regression":[242],"models,":[243],"nonparametric":[248],"continuous":[249],"Bayesian":[250],"belief":[251],"nets.":[252]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}