{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2166504420","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/073889420302000201","title":"Explaining Interstate Conflict and War: What Should Be Controlled for?","display_name":"Explaining Interstate Conflict and War: What Should Be Controlled for?","publication_year":2003,"publication_date":"2003-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2166504420","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/073889420302000201","mag":"2166504420"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/073889420302000201","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/073889420302000201","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/073889420302000201","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S142977025","display_name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","issn_l":"0738-8942","issn":["0738-8942","1549-9219"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-2","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5111785831","display_name":"James Lee Ray","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I200719446","display_name":"Vanderbilt University","ror":"https://ror.org/02vm5rt34","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I200719446"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"James Lee Ray","raw_affiliation_strings":["Vanderbilt University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Vanderbilt University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I200719446"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5111785831"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I200719446"],"apc_list":{"value":3650,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3650},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":27.3365,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":194,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99383497,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"20","issue":"2","first_page":"1","last_page":"31"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10070","display_name":"Political Conflict and Governance","score":0.6967999935150146,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10070","display_name":"Political Conflict and Governance","score":0.6967999935150146,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13721","display_name":"Political Science Research and Education","score":0.13609999418258667,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10053","display_name":"International Relations and Foreign Policy","score":0.08669999986886978,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interstate-conflict","display_name":"interstate conflict","score":0.9409999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/war","display_name":"war","score":0.777999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/control-variables","display_name":"control variables","score":0.8289999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/confounding-variables","display_name":"confounding variables","score":0.8709999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mediators","display_name":"mediators","score":0.9559999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-inference","display_name":"causal inference","score":0.4440000057220459}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161584116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1952580","display_name":"Multivariate statistics","level":2,"score":0.7128554582595825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153240184","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3243772","display_name":"Control variable","level":2,"score":0.6062673926353455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27574286","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q320723","display_name":"Variables","level":2,"score":0.602946400642395},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77350462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1125472","display_name":"Confounding","level":2,"score":0.5852553248405457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5755943059921265},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5482807159423828},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.5448872447013855},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162144332","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1665305","display_name":"Instrumental variable","level":2,"score":0.4751529395580292},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775924081","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q55608371","display_name":"Control (management)","level":2,"score":0.4579206705093384},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38180746","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1952580","display_name":"Multivariate analysis","level":2,"score":0.44607406854629517},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10879293","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q726474","display_name":"Factor analysis","level":2,"score":0.43454238772392273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3030942678451538},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.23146086931228638},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.17180746793746948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.0821746289730072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/073889420302000201","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/073889420302000201","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/073889420302000201","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S142977025","display_name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","issn_l":"0738-8942","issn":["0738-8942","1549-9219"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-2","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.485.3964","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.485.3964","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://qssi.psu.edu/files/ray_2003.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:sae:compsc:v:20:y:2003:i:2:p:1-31","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/073889420302000201","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","score":0.8999999761581421,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":41,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W34845191","https://openalex.org/W590714071","https://openalex.org/W609582374","https://openalex.org/W658786877","https://openalex.org/W1519145125","https://openalex.org/W1584789652","https://openalex.org/W1974495186","https://openalex.org/W1986406560","https://openalex.org/W1987673617","https://openalex.org/W1997110940","https://openalex.org/W2008075096","https://openalex.org/W2009601445","https://openalex.org/W2075129888","https://openalex.org/W2076634691","https://openalex.org/W2081021623","https://openalex.org/W2083620364","https://openalex.org/W2091132573","https://openalex.org/W2093292986","https://openalex.org/W2094736317","https://openalex.org/W2097746681","https://openalex.org/W2119423063","https://openalex.org/W2125353502","https://openalex.org/W2138254639","https://openalex.org/W2145724308","https://openalex.org/W2161826494","https://openalex.org/W2258802274","https://openalex.org/W2319838316","https://openalex.org/W2322183461","https://openalex.org/W2781547222","https://openalex.org/W2998772109","https://openalex.org/W3124594404","https://openalex.org/W4205407107","https://openalex.org/W4210387359","https://openalex.org/W4214518271","https://openalex.org/W4231245947","https://openalex.org/W4234392844","https://openalex.org/W4235249285","https://openalex.org/W4301402908","https://openalex.org/W4361026440","https://openalex.org/W4389433517","https://openalex.org/W4389658588"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2297266072","https://openalex.org/W3001625033","https://openalex.org/W1964517105","https://openalex.org/W2765767063","https://openalex.org/W7000061149","https://openalex.org/W2146377270","https://openalex.org/W1992095430","https://openalex.org/W132154391","https://openalex.org/W600441753","https://openalex.org/W3016399455"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Most":[0,86],"multivariate":[1,36,55,167,260,275],"models":[2,37,168,261],"designed":[3],"by":[4,152,181],"analysts":[5],"of":[6,29,35,41,45,54,80,109,172,195,200,238,259,274],"intemational":[7],"conflict":[8,103,135,229],"focus":[9],"on":[10,101,133,209,227],"one":[11],"key":[12,111,156,214],"explanatory":[13,112,157,215],"factor":[14],"and":[15,38,58,71,78,95,232,279],"include":[16],"several":[17],"control":[18,42,115,221],"variables.":[19,43],"There":[20],"are":[21,83,117,147,150],"prominent":[22],"norms":[23,47],"or":[24,48,136,159],"customs":[25,49],"in":[26,119,242,266],"the":[27,33,39,52,76,110,155,193,198,210,213,220,257,272],"subfield":[28],"international":[30],"politics":[31],"regarding":[32],"construction":[34,199,258],"selection":[40],"Several":[44],"these":[46,264],"may":[50],"make":[51],"results":[53,273],"analyses":[56,205,276],"confusing":[57],"difficult":[59],"to":[60,90,107,154,160,178],"interpret.":[61],"Analysts":[62],"typically":[63],"do":[64],"not,":[65],"for":[66,122,256],"example,":[67],"distinguish":[68,91],"between":[69,92,175],"confounding":[70,93],"intervening":[72],"variables":[73,82,94,96,116,146,176],"even":[74],"though":[75],"implications":[77],"impacts":[79,226],"such":[81],"substantially":[84],"different.":[85],"researchers":[87],"also":[88,129],"fail":[89],"that":[97,104,108,127,149,191,212,246,262],"have":[98,130,223],"an":[99,131],"impact":[100,132],"interstate":[102,134,228],"is":[105,206,240,249],"complementary":[106],"factor.":[113],"Commonly,":[114],"included":[118,148],"a":[120,267],"model":[121],"no":[123],"other":[124,138,180],"reason":[125],"than":[126],"they":[128],"some":[137,142,237],"outcome":[139],"variable.":[140],"In":[141],"recent":[143],"analyses,":[144],"\"independent\"":[145],"related":[151,177],"definition":[153,182],"variable,":[158],"each":[161,179],"other.":[162],"This":[163,251],"practice":[164],"introduces":[165],"into":[166],"artifactual,":[169],"misleading":[170],"degrees":[171],"statistical":[173],"association":[174],"with":[183],"tautological":[184],"relationships":[185],"masquerading":[186],"as":[187,217,219],"empirical":[188],"causal":[189],"connections":[190],"complicate":[192],"interpretation":[194],"results.":[196],"Finally,":[197],"pooled":[201],"cross-sectional,":[202],"time":[203],"series":[204],"consistently":[207],"based":[208],"assumption":[211,248],"factor,":[216],"well":[218],"variables,":[222],"essentially":[224],"identical":[225],"across":[230],"space,":[231],"over":[233],"time.":[234],"Substantial":[235],"evidence,":[236],"which":[239],"provided":[241],"this":[243,247],"paper,":[244],"suggests":[245],"unwarranted.":[250],"paper":[252],"provides":[253],"five":[254],"guidelines":[255],"address":[263],"issues":[265],"manner":[268],"aimed":[269],"at":[270],"making":[271],"more":[277],"intelligible":[278],"credible.":[280]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":21},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":20},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":13}],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}