{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2166201596","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","title":"Expert judgements of sea-level rise at the local scale","display_name":"Expert judgements of sea-level rise at the local scale","publication_year":2015,"publication_date":"2015-05-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2166201596","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","mag":"2166201596"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S129686714","display_name":"Journal of Risk Research","issn_l":"1366-9877","issn":["1366-9877","1466-4461"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-c","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319847","host_organization_name":"Routledge","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319847","https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Routledge","Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Risk Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"parent_works":[],"lineage":["https://openalex.org/W2166201596"],"child_works_count":0,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://researchportal.bath.ac.uk/en/publications/e365efb2-3b66-4e1f-84b7-6badb76e0faa","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028599023","display_name":"Merryn J. Thomas","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8529-8245","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8529-8245"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210143632","display_name":"Tyndall Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/040tfy969","country_code":"GB","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210143632"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79510175","display_name":"Cardiff University","ror":"https://ror.org/03kk7td41","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79510175"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Merryn Thomas","raw_affiliation_strings":["Understanding Risk Group, Tyndall Centre and Climate Change Consortium of Wales, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Understanding Risk Group, Tyndall Centre and Climate Change Consortium of Wales, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210143632","https://openalex.org/I79510175"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5053365910","display_name":"Nick Pidgeon","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8991-0398","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8991-0398"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210143632","display_name":"Tyndall Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/040tfy969","country_code":"GB","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210143632"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79510175","display_name":"Cardiff University","ror":"https://ror.org/03kk7td41","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79510175"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nick Pidgeon","raw_affiliation_strings":["Understanding Risk Group, Tyndall Centre and Climate Change Consortium of Wales, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Understanding Risk Group, Tyndall Centre and Climate Change Consortium of Wales, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210143632","https://openalex.org/I79510175"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012606238","display_name":"Lorraine E. Whitmarsh","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9054-1040","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9054-1040"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210143632","display_name":"Tyndall Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/040tfy969","country_code":"GB","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210143632"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79510175","display_name":"Cardiff University","ror":"https://ror.org/03kk7td41","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79510175"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lorraine Whitmarsh","raw_affiliation_strings":["Understanding Risk Group, Tyndall Centre and Climate Change Consortium of Wales, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Understanding Risk Group, Tyndall Centre and Climate Change Consortium of Wales, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210143632","https://openalex.org/I79510175"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041263276","display_name":"Rhoda Ballinger","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2402-1813","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2402-1813"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79510175","display_name":"Cardiff University","ror":"https://ror.org/03kk7td41","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79510175"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rhoda Ballinger","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79510175"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5028599023"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210143632","https://openalex.org/I79510175"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.5552,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":9,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.79587156,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":87,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"19","issue":"5","first_page":"664","last_page":"685"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10647","display_name":"Coastal and Marine Dynamics","score":0.2264000028371811,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1904","display_name":"Earth-Surface Processes"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10647","display_name":"Coastal and Marine Dynamics","score":0.2264000028371811,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1904","display_name":"Earth-Surface Processes"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.09719999879598618,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11488","display_name":"Climate Change Communication and Perception","score":0.09529999643564224,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sea-level-rise","display_name":"sea level rise","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-elicitation","display_name":"probability elicitation","score":0.8840000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-characterization","display_name":"uncertainty characterization","score":0.6819999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/severn-estuary","display_name":"Severn Estuary","score":0.8050000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-adaptation","display_name":"climate change adaptation","score":0.843999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expert-reasoning","display_name":"expert reasoning","score":0.7590000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heuristics","display_name":"heuristics","score":0.8690000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/qualitative-quantitative-integration","display_name":"qualitative-quantitative integration","score":0.48100000619888306}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C72161134","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5421219","display_name":"Expert elicitation","level":2,"score":0.7521833181381226},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127705205","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5748245","display_name":"Heuristics","level":2,"score":0.6666521430015564},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41156917","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q682831","display_name":"Downscaling","level":3,"score":0.6072895526885986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776548248","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12621536","display_name":"Judgement","level":2,"score":0.5916435122489929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.5727062225341797},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778755073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10858537","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","level":2,"score":0.5277315378189087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.4897444248199463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.48811206221580505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.38569456338882446},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3143748342990875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.22357633709907532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.19173851609230042},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.10991337895393372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58640448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42515","display_name":"Cartography","level":1,"score":0.10028627514839172},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.08961153030395508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201995342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q682496","display_name":"Systems engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":7,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S129686714","display_name":"Journal of Risk Research","issn_l":"1366-9877","issn":["1366-9877","1466-4461"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-c","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319847","host_organization_name":"Routledge","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319847","https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Routledge","Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Risk Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:purehost.bath.ac.uk:openaire/e365efb2-3b66-4e1f-84b7-6badb76e0faa","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://researchportal.bath.ac.uk/en/publications/e365efb2-3b66-4e1f-84b7-6badb76e0faa","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196294","display_name":"Pure (University of Bath)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I51601045","host_organization_name":"University of Bath","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I51601045"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Thomas, M, Pidgeon, N, Whitmarsh, L & Ballinger, R 2016, 'Expert judgements of sea-level rise at the local scale', Journal of Risk Research, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 664-685. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:http://orca.cardiff.ac.uk:73707","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/73707/1/Accepted%20Manuscript_JRR_Thomas%20et%20al%202015_Expert%20judgements.pdf","pdf_url":"https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/73707/1/Accepted%20Manuscript_JRR_Thomas%20et%20al%202015_Expert%20judgements.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401195","display_name":"ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I79510175","host_organization_name":"Cardiff University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79510175"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk:73707","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/73707/1/Accepted%20Manuscript_JRR_Thomas%20et%20al%202015_Expert%20judgements.pdf","pdf_url":"https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/73707/1/Accepted%20Manuscript_JRR_Thomas%20et%20al%202015_Expert%20judgements.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401195","display_name":"ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I79510175","host_organization_name":"Cardiff University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79510175"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:19:y:2016:i:5:p:664-685","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:cronfa.swan.ac.uk:cronfa56186","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa56186","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401612","display_name":"Cronfa (Swansea University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I39586589","host_organization_name":"Swansea University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39586589"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Journal article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:http://orca-dev.cardiff.ac.uk:73707","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/73707/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401195","display_name":"ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I79510175","host_organization_name":"Cardiff University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79510175"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:purehost.bath.ac.uk:openaire/e365efb2-3b66-4e1f-84b7-6badb76e0faa","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://researchportal.bath.ac.uk/en/publications/e365efb2-3b66-4e1f-84b7-6badb76e0faa","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196294","display_name":"Pure (University of Bath)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I51601045","host_organization_name":"University of Bath","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I51601045"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Thomas, M, Pidgeon, N, Whitmarsh, L & Ballinger, R 2016, 'Expert judgements of sea-level rise at the local scale', Journal of Risk Research, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 664-685. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1043568","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":0.5351999998092651}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2675555750","display_name":"NSEC:  Center for Nanotechnology in Society at University of California, Santa Barbara","funder_award_id":"0938099","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320350","display_name":"Cardiff University","ror":"https://ror.org/03kk7td41"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":90,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W89749717","https://openalex.org/W158727920","https://openalex.org/W284513564","https://openalex.org/W622201023","https://openalex.org/W942274081","https://openalex.org/W1512542755","https://openalex.org/W1520428197","https://openalex.org/W1538588053","https://openalex.org/W1550687268","https://openalex.org/W1556808132","https://openalex.org/W1587794822","https://openalex.org/W1606458208","https://openalex.org/W1631712452","https://openalex.org/W1907631742","https://openalex.org/W1972033526","https://openalex.org/W1974506886","https://openalex.org/W2003288795","https://openalex.org/W2006600182","https://openalex.org/W2007367842","https://openalex.org/W2010733790","https://openalex.org/W2013502686","https://openalex.org/W2020523605","https://openalex.org/W2027777890","https://openalex.org/W2028076981","https://openalex.org/W2028889875","https://openalex.org/W2032924229","https://openalex.org/W2035986600","https://openalex.org/W2038150548","https://openalex.org/W2038320992","https://openalex.org/W2046054386","https://openalex.org/W2050038633","https://openalex.org/W2053945117","https://openalex.org/W2063760437","https://openalex.org/W2065637266","https://openalex.org/W2071311956","https://openalex.org/W2073141004","https://openalex.org/W2079025608","https://openalex.org/W2082563645","https://openalex.org/W2086386927","https://openalex.org/W2090785019","https://openalex.org/W2094067643","https://openalex.org/W2095207587","https://openalex.org/W2098679437","https://openalex.org/W2114475940","https://openalex.org/W2115427397","https://openalex.org/W2120012334","https://openalex.org/W2125587332","https://openalex.org/W2126824225","https://openalex.org/W2129126037","https://openalex.org/W2130339099","https://openalex.org/W2132811257","https://openalex.org/W2137224830","https://openalex.org/W2138982147","https://openalex.org/W2146506064","https://openalex.org/W2150643376","https://openalex.org/W2151066274","https://openalex.org/W2156831750","https://openalex.org/W2163065403","https://openalex.org/W2174100085","https://openalex.org/W2184768610","https://openalex.org/W2280839306","https://openalex.org/W2285786022","https://openalex.org/W2308356401","https://openalex.org/W2328429169","https://openalex.org/W2329395632","https://openalex.org/W2332086916","https://openalex.org/W2515792041","https://openalex.org/W2530597942","https://openalex.org/W2586317289","https://openalex.org/W2617606220","https://openalex.org/W2726474170","https://openalex.org/W2752714680","https://openalex.org/W2753533763","https://openalex.org/W2913679251","https://openalex.org/W3124211872","https://openalex.org/W3143310843","https://openalex.org/W4206367481","https://openalex.org/W4229552535","https://openalex.org/W4233435028","https://openalex.org/W4236225448","https://openalex.org/W4236314576","https://openalex.org/W4238643598","https://openalex.org/W4246039580","https://openalex.org/W4249247059","https://openalex.org/W4251395411","https://openalex.org/W4255572977","https://openalex.org/W4256094490","https://openalex.org/W4292157289","https://openalex.org/W4301958211","https://openalex.org/W4388156124"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3041965343","https://openalex.org/W3199116769","https://openalex.org/W3022071453","https://openalex.org/W2560172285","https://openalex.org/W2016950165","https://openalex.org/W2022881146","https://openalex.org/W1954149891","https://openalex.org/W2409622555","https://openalex.org/W4377941365","https://openalex.org/W4405279673"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Whilst":[0],"local":[1,37],"projections":[2],"of":[3,36,52,60,125,132,189,210],"sea-level":[4],"rise":[5,107],"(SLR)":[6],"are":[7,230],"necessary":[8],"to":[9,32,82,135,142,150,157,216,231,234],"facilitate":[10],"targeted":[11],"climate":[12,21],"change":[13],"adaptation":[14],"and":[15,39,62,78,119,155,167,191,203,213],"communication":[16],"strategies,":[17],"downscaling":[18],"from":[19,57,140],"global":[20],"models":[22],"can":[23],"be":[24,232,240],"problematic.":[25],"Here,":[26],"we":[27],"use":[28],"expert":[29,227],"probability":[30,70,228],"judgement":[31],"elicit":[33],"a":[34,58,68],"suite":[35],"projections,":[38],"associated":[40],"uncertainties,":[41],"for":[42,73],"future":[43,126],"SLR":[44,133],"on":[45,108],"the":[46,50,53,74,83,86,90,109,123,136,146,194,201,208,218],"Severn":[47],"Estuary":[48,110],"in":[49,67,111,145,153,160,196],"south-west":[51],"UK.":[54],"Eleven":[55],"experts":[56],"range":[59,139],"policy":[61],"academic":[63],"backgrounds":[64],"took":[65],"part":[66],"structured":[69],"elicitation":[71],"exercise":[72],"years":[75],"2050,":[76],"2100":[77],"2200.":[79,161],"In":[80],"addition":[81],"quantitative":[84,214],"elicitation,":[85],"experts\u2019":[87,180],"reasoning":[88,219,238],"during":[89],"task":[91],"was":[92],"qualitatively":[93],"analysed.":[94],"Quantitative":[95],"analyses":[96,177],"show":[97],"that":[98,103,179,225],"although":[99],"there":[100,113],"is":[101,114],"consensus":[102],"sea":[104],"levels":[105],"will":[106],"future,":[112,202],"wide":[115],"variation":[116],"between":[117],"judgements":[118,181,229],"much":[120],"uncertainty":[121,221,236],"regarding":[122],"magnitude":[124],"rise.":[127],"For":[128],"example,":[129],"median":[130],"estimates":[131],"(compared":[134],"2011":[137],"level)":[138],"9.6":[141],"40":[143],"cm":[144,152,159],"year":[147],"2050;":[148],"20":[149],"100":[151],"2100;":[154],"35":[156],"300":[158],"Fifty":[162],"per":[163,169],"cent":[164,170],"confidence":[165,171],"intervals":[166,172],"ninety":[168],"vary":[173],"even":[174],"more.":[175],"Qualitative":[176],"indicate":[178],"may":[182],"have":[183],"been":[184],"influenced":[185],"by":[186],"their":[187],"choice":[188],"methods":[190,215],"information":[192],"sources,":[193],"ways":[195],"which":[197],"they":[198],"thought":[199],"about":[200],"heuristics.":[204],"The":[205],"study":[206],"shows":[207],"merits":[209],"integrating":[211],"qualitative":[212],"explore":[217],"behind":[220],"judgements.":[222],"We":[223],"conclude":[224],"where":[226],"used":[233],"characterise":[235],"such":[237],"should":[239],"made":[241],"explicit.":[242]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-14T11:04:58.165337","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}