{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2162841955","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00518.x","title":"Applying Discrete Choice Models to Predict Academy Award Winners","display_name":"Applying Discrete Choice Models to Predict Academy Award Winners","publication_year":2007,"publication_date":"2007-11-19","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2162841955","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00518.x","mag":"2162841955"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00518.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00518.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00518.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185328345","display_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)","issn_l":"0964-1998","issn":["0964-1998","1467-985X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311763","host_organization_name":"Royal Statistical Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311763"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Royal Statistical Society"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027353180","display_name":"Iain Pardoe","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I181233156","display_name":"University of Oregon","ror":"https://ror.org/0293rh119","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I181233156"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Iain Pardoe","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Oregon , Eugene , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oregon , Eugene , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181233156"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062591081","display_name":"Dean Keith Simonton","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7709-7977","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7709-7977"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I84218800","display_name":"University of California, Davis","ror":"https://ror.org/05rrcem69","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I84218800"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dean K. Simonton","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of California at Davis , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of California at Davis , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I84218800"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5027353180"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181233156"],"apc_list":{"value":2621,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":3456},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.9185,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":51,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95010165,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"171","issue":"2","first_page":"375","last_page":"394"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.6898999810218811,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.6898999810218811,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10758","display_name":"Cinema and Media Studies","score":0.26899999380111694,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1213","display_name":"Visual Arts and Performing Arts"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/12","display_name":"Arts and Humanities"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.0071000000461936,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/academy-awards","display_name":"Academy Awards","score":0.9660000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/discrete-choice-models","display_name":"discrete choice models","score":0.9700000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/film-nominations","display_name":"film nominations","score":0.3799999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/best-picture","display_name":"Best Picture","score":0.5709999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/best-director","display_name":"Best Director","score":0.8970000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/best-actor","display_name":"Best Actor","score":0.718999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/best-actress","display_name":"Best Actress","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/winning-probability","display_name":"winning probability","score":0.6209999918937683}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775843773","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2627975","display_name":"Ceremony","level":2,"score":0.7109069228172302},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C70789860","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2018526","display_name":"The arts","level":2,"score":0.5498239994049072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020105747","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11118951","display_name":"Media coverage","level":2,"score":0.413135826587677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.3711059093475342},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.35587066411972046},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95457728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q309","display_name":"History","level":0,"score":0.2543479800224304},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.24218076467514038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29595303","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q165650","display_name":"Media studies","level":1,"score":0.2400188148021698},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00518.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00518.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00518.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185328345","display_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)","issn_l":"0964-1998","issn":["0964-1998","1467-985X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311763","host_organization_name":"Royal Statistical Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311763"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Royal Statistical Society"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.591.920","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.591.920","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.iainpardoe.com/research/08jrssa/oscars.pdf","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":58,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W123430343","https://openalex.org/W584847323","https://openalex.org/W596750032","https://openalex.org/W1487897776","https://openalex.org/W1526262927","https://openalex.org/W1526581177","https://openalex.org/W1541705153","https://openalex.org/W1550812296","https://openalex.org/W1583412610","https://openalex.org/W1596394732","https://openalex.org/W1603629371","https://openalex.org/W1974868384","https://openalex.org/W1977140001","https://openalex.org/W1977233984","https://openalex.org/W1977811921","https://openalex.org/W1984010964","https://openalex.org/W1997754303","https://openalex.org/W1998327898","https://openalex.org/W1998576834","https://openalex.org/W2002007417","https://openalex.org/W2003675029","https://openalex.org/W2008659066","https://openalex.org/W2038412560","https://openalex.org/W2040011853","https://openalex.org/W2043235716","https://openalex.org/W2045980827","https://openalex.org/W2049834124","https://openalex.org/W2057765075","https://openalex.org/W2060200752","https://openalex.org/W2066903163","https://openalex.org/W2075501875","https://openalex.org/W2076051251","https://openalex.org/W2078473610","https://openalex.org/W2081493165","https://openalex.org/W2093223772","https://openalex.org/W2095250481","https://openalex.org/W2098910318","https://openalex.org/W2102349818","https://openalex.org/W2102386709","https://openalex.org/W2106443861","https://openalex.org/W2106856444","https://openalex.org/W2108207895","https://openalex.org/W2115574472","https://openalex.org/W2136105491","https://openalex.org/W2137344397","https://openalex.org/W2144784532","https://openalex.org/W2145870596","https://openalex.org/W2152081677","https://openalex.org/W2153752172","https://openalex.org/W2163738067","https://openalex.org/W2319178748","https://openalex.org/W2331232258","https://openalex.org/W2491861244","https://openalex.org/W2492294785","https://openalex.org/W2582743722","https://openalex.org/W2619468574","https://openalex.org/W3124354616","https://openalex.org/W4232543679"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7098014223","https://openalex.org/W2480933913","https://openalex.org/W7008435231","https://openalex.org/W4238518722","https://openalex.org/W2280820407","https://openalex.org/W7096050146","https://openalex.org/W3169832139","https://openalex.org/W2994200197","https://openalex.org/W7161289739","https://openalex.org/W953221551"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Summary":[0],"Every":[1],"year":[2],"since":[3],"1928,":[4],"the":[5,27,48,79,86,90,116],"Academy":[6,22],"of":[7,59,88,126,144],"Motion":[8],"Picture":[9],"Arts":[10],"and":[11,38,100],"Sciences":[12],"has":[13],"recognized":[14],"outstanding":[15],"achievement":[16],"in":[17,29,41,96,102,118],"film":[18],"with":[19,51,122,140],"their":[20],"prestigious":[21],"Award,":[23],"or":[24],"Oscar.":[25],"Before":[26],"winners":[28,80,117],"various":[30],"categories":[31,121],"are":[32,56,64,81],"announced,":[33],"there":[34,72],"is":[35,111],"intense":[36],"media":[37],"public":[39],"interest":[40],"predicting":[42,89],"who":[43,146,150],"will":[44],"come":[45],"away":[46],"from":[47],"awards":[49],"ceremony":[50],"an":[52],"Oscar":[53],"statuette.":[54],"There":[55],"no":[57],"end":[58],"theories":[60],"about":[61],"which":[62,132],"nominees":[63,149],"most":[65],"likely":[66],"to":[67,74,114,154],"win,":[68],"yet":[69],"despite":[70],"this":[71],"continue":[73],"be":[75,136],"major":[76,92],"surprises":[77],"when":[78],"announced.":[82],"The":[83,128],"paper":[84],"frames":[85],"question":[87],"four":[91,120],"awards\u2014picture,":[93],"director,":[94],"actor":[95],"a":[97,103,106,123],"leading":[98,104],"role":[99],"actress":[101],"role\u2014as":[105],"discrete":[107],"choice":[108],"problem.":[109],"It":[110],"then":[112],"possible":[113],"predict":[115],"these":[119],"reasonable":[124],"degree":[125],"success.":[127],"analysis":[129],"also":[130],"reveals":[131],"past":[133],"results":[134],"might":[135],"considered":[137],"truly":[138],"surprising\u2014nominees":[139],"low":[141],"estimated":[142],"probability":[143],"winning":[145],"have":[147],"overcome":[148],"were":[151],"strongly":[152],"favoured":[153],"win.":[155]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}