{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2157274652","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12197","title":"Seasonal probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the N orth I ndian O cean","display_name":"Seasonal probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the N orth I ndian O cean","publication_year":2015,"publication_date":"2015-07-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2157274652","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12197","mag":"2157274652"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/jfr3.12197","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12197","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12197","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S164751132","display_name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","issn_l":"1753-318X","issn":["1753-318X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5000875599","display_name":"Antonio Guerrero Espejo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-4277","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-4277"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I13134134","display_name":"Universidad de Cantabria","ror":"https://ror.org/046ffzj20","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I13134134"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405259921","display_name":"IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidr\u00e1ulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria","ror":"https://ror.org/02y384f44","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I13134134","https://openalex.org/I4405259921"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"A. Espejo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Environmental Hydraulics Institute \u2018IH Cantabria\u2019 Universidad de Cantabria  Santander Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environmental Hydraulics Institute \u2018IH Cantabria\u2019 Universidad de Cantabria  Santander Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I13134134","https://openalex.org/I4405259921"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081085407","display_name":"Fernando Javier Mendez","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5005-1100","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5005-1100"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I13134134","display_name":"Universidad de Cantabria","ror":"https://ror.org/046ffzj20","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I13134134"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405259921","display_name":"IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidr\u00e1ulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria","ror":"https://ror.org/02y384f44","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I13134134","https://openalex.org/I4405259921"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"F.J. Mendez","raw_affiliation_strings":["Environmental Hydraulics Institute \u2018IH Cantabria\u2019 Universidad de Cantabria  Santander Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environmental Hydraulics Institute \u2018IH Cantabria\u2019 Universidad de Cantabria  Santander Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I13134134","https://openalex.org/I4405259921"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110262205","display_name":"Javier F. Diez","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I13134134","display_name":"Universidad de Cantabria","ror":"https://ror.org/046ffzj20","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I13134134"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405259921","display_name":"IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidr\u00e1ulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria","ror":"https://ror.org/02y384f44","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I13134134","https://openalex.org/I4405259921"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J. Diez","raw_affiliation_strings":["Environmental Hydraulics Institute \u2018IH Cantabria\u2019 Universidad de Cantabria  Santander Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environmental Hydraulics Institute \u2018IH Cantabria\u2019 Universidad de Cantabria  Santander Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I13134134","https://openalex.org/I4405259921"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032369607","display_name":"Ra\u00fal Medina","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0126-2710","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0126-2710"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I13134134","display_name":"Universidad de Cantabria","ror":"https://ror.org/046ffzj20","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I13134134"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405259921","display_name":"IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidr\u00e1ulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria","ror":"https://ror.org/02y384f44","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I13134134","https://openalex.org/I4405259921"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"R. Medina","raw_affiliation_strings":["Environmental Hydraulics Institute \u2018IH Cantabria\u2019 Universidad de Cantabria  Santander Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environmental Hydraulics Institute \u2018IH Cantabria\u2019 Universidad de Cantabria  Santander Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I13134134","https://openalex.org/I4405259921"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045792705","display_name":"Sultan Al-Yahyai","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1743-940X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1743-940X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"S. AL\u2010Yahyai","raw_affiliation_strings":["Information Technology Department Mazoon Electricity Company  Muscat Oman"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Information Technology Department Mazoon Electricity Company  Muscat Oman","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5081085407"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I13134134","https://openalex.org/I4405259921"],"apc_list":{"value":3280,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3280},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.4258,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":6,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.67041989,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":"9","issue":"4","first_page":"379","last_page":"389"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.9951000213623047,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.9951000213623047,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.003599999938160181,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tropical-cyclones","display_name":"tropical cyclones","score":0.8769999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/north-indian-ocean","display_name":"North Indian Ocean","score":0.8410000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sea-surface-temperature","display_name":"sea surface temperature","score":0.9200000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-downscaling","display_name":"statistical downscaling","score":0.9120000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tropical-cyclone-tracks","display_name":"tropical cyclone tracks","score":0.652999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tropical-cyclone-intensification","display_name":"tropical cyclone intensification","score":0.7850000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/early-warning-systems","display_name":"early warning systems","score":0.7310000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coastal-flooding","display_name":"coastal flooding","score":0.8840000033378601}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6584685444831848},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29141058","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8092","display_name":"Tropical cyclone","level":2,"score":0.5802080631256104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.548180341720581},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134097258","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1507383","display_name":"Sea surface temperature","level":2,"score":0.5346677899360657},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.428928941488266},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.41593873500823975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186594467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1429176","display_name":"Flooding (psychology)","level":2,"score":0.4138685464859009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3199215829372406},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.19443845748901367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.09305837750434875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.0839102566242218},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C542102704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q183257","display_name":"Psychotherapist","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/jfr3.12197","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12197","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12197","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S164751132","display_name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","issn_l":"1753-318X","issn":["1753-318X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9786999821662903,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1480376833","https://openalex.org/W1484331152","https://openalex.org/W1645858368","https://openalex.org/W1854573622","https://openalex.org/W1965808631","https://openalex.org/W1970435246","https://openalex.org/W1974038018","https://openalex.org/W1982897452","https://openalex.org/W1995864593","https://openalex.org/W2008724397","https://openalex.org/W2022979451","https://openalex.org/W2028439515","https://openalex.org/W2033425039","https://openalex.org/W2035601730","https://openalex.org/W2048138001","https://openalex.org/W2056020341","https://openalex.org/W2060172488","https://openalex.org/W2078719258","https://openalex.org/W2082001988","https://openalex.org/W2084354977","https://openalex.org/W2087650436","https://openalex.org/W2096623891","https://openalex.org/W2137582471","https://openalex.org/W4236259219","https://openalex.org/W4300832153"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7096688828","https://openalex.org/W4394574262","https://openalex.org/W6908299871","https://openalex.org/W2943644459","https://openalex.org/W4313381186","https://openalex.org/W2117234361","https://openalex.org/W2177161849","https://openalex.org/W3127915228","https://openalex.org/W1852864662","https://openalex.org/W3171530816"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Coastal":[1],"flooding":[2],"due":[3],"to":[4,49,104],"tropical":[5],"cyclones":[6],"(TCs)":[7],"is":[8,121],"a":[9,67,74,106,126],"major":[10],"concern":[11],"in":[12,34,41,88],"low\u2010lying":[13],"areas":[14],"of":[15,37,62,69,81,90,109,125],"the":[16,21,35,42,60,99,113],"North":[17],"Indian":[18],"Ocean.":[19],"In":[20],"past":[22],"few":[23],"years,":[24],"there":[25],"have":[26,46],"been":[27],"devastating":[28],"TCs":[29],"(e.g.":[30],"Nargis":[31],"and":[32,39,52,93],"Layla":[33],"Bay":[36],"Bengal":[38],"Gonu":[40],"Arabian":[43],"Sea)":[44],"that":[45,78,118],"galvanised":[47],"efforts":[48],"better":[50],"understand":[51],"forecast":[53,108],"such":[54],"events.":[55],"Here,":[56],"we":[57,97],"focus":[58],"on":[59],"role":[61],"sea\u2010surface":[63],"temperature":[64],"(SST)":[65],"as":[66],"predictor":[68],"TC":[70,86,110,129],"intensification.":[71],"We":[72,116],"develop":[73],"statistical":[75],"downscaling":[76],"model":[77],"identifies":[79],"patterns":[80],"large\u2010scale":[82],"SST":[83],"associated":[84],"with":[85],"activity":[87,111],"terms":[89],"occurrence":[91],"rate":[92],"expected":[94],"tracks.":[95],"Finally,":[96],"use":[98],"Climate":[100],"Forecast":[101],"System":[102],"v2":[103],"construct":[105],"probabilistic":[107],"for":[112],"coming":[114],"months/season.":[115],"demonstrate":[117],"this":[119],"approach":[120],"an":[122],"integral":[123],"component":[124],"very":[127],"early":[128],"warning":[130],"system.":[131]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-09-26T08:19:03.415552","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}