{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2139352329","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1235","title":"Exploring Survey\u2010Based Inflation Forecasts","display_name":"Exploring Survey\u2010Based Inflation Forecasts","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-04-11","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2139352329","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1235","mag":"2139352329"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/for.1235","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1235","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1235","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S122161766","display_name":"Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0277-6693","issn":["0277-6693","1099-131X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5056796755","display_name":"Luis A. Gil\u2010Alana","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5760-3123","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5760-3123"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I88155538","display_name":"Universidad de Navarra","ror":"https://ror.org/02rxc7m23","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I88155538"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Luis Gil\u2010Alana","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Navarra Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Navarra Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I88155538"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101943217","display_name":"Antonio Moreno","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-3028","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-3028"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I88155538","display_name":"Universidad de Navarra","ror":"https://ror.org/02rxc7m23","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I88155538"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Antonio Moreno","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Navarra Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Navarra Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I88155538"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077348515","display_name":"Fernando P\u00e9rez de Gracia","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9024-9517","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9024-9517"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I88155538","display_name":"Universidad de Navarra","ror":"https://ror.org/02rxc7m23","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I88155538"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fernando P\u00e9rez de Gracia","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Navarra Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Navarra Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I88155538"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5101943217"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I88155538"],"apc_list":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.299,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":31,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.84355978,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"31","issue":"6","first_page":"524","last_page":"539"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9375,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9375,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.062300000339746475,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-expectations","display_name":"inflation expectations","score":0.9409999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/out-of-sample-forecasting","display_name":"out-of-sample forecasting","score":0.9340000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2008-financial-crisis","display_name":"2008 financial crisis","score":0.8889999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomic-conditions","display_name":"macroeconomic conditions","score":0.6439999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.33000001311302185}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.8518813252449036},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780598303","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q65921492","display_name":"Flexibility (engineering)","level":2,"score":0.7144673466682434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778136018","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10350689","display_name":"Predictive power","level":2,"score":0.7093324661254883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.6064577102661133},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5613449215888977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.531349241733551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198477413","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7647069","display_name":"Survey data collection","level":2,"score":0.4957062005996704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166955791","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q629579","display_name":"Macro","level":2,"score":0.4951247274875641},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776892200","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7647093","display_name":"Survey of Professional Forecasters","level":3,"score":0.45465517044067383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.34180736541748047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.2870974540710449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.24919450283050537},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.08405071496963501},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1002/for.1235","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1235","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1235","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S122161766","display_name":"Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0277-6693","issn":["0277-6693","1099-131X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:una:unccee:wp0511","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1299001918_WP_UNAV_05_11.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1299001918_WP_UNAV_05_11.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:3122118421","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:una:unccee:wp0511","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320312710","display_name":"London School of Economics and Political Science","ror":"https://ror.org/0090zs177"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":27,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1507341023","https://openalex.org/W1519175108","https://openalex.org/W1521746342","https://openalex.org/W1572003821","https://openalex.org/W1954737426","https://openalex.org/W2002508487","https://openalex.org/W2019388752","https://openalex.org/W2028995298","https://openalex.org/W2046738567","https://openalex.org/W2052647713","https://openalex.org/W2059164172","https://openalex.org/W2068185035","https://openalex.org/W2070666666","https://openalex.org/W2070720254","https://openalex.org/W2084689273","https://openalex.org/W2089309985","https://openalex.org/W2124091152","https://openalex.org/W2133019268","https://openalex.org/W2152717893","https://openalex.org/W2161496057","https://openalex.org/W2169619234","https://openalex.org/W2171720247","https://openalex.org/W2890450911","https://openalex.org/W3121595883","https://openalex.org/W3121975725","https://openalex.org/W3125565431","https://openalex.org/W3125642132"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7012839668","https://openalex.org/W3125393644","https://openalex.org/W3151725757","https://openalex.org/W2000322953","https://openalex.org/W2168579081","https://openalex.org/W6999148036","https://openalex.org/W2184440383","https://openalex.org/W2606083923","https://openalex.org/W7110533652","https://openalex.org/W2915908244"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"ABSTRACT":[0],"This":[1],"paper":[2],"first":[3],"shows":[4],"that":[5,21,55],"survey\u2010based":[6,26,50],"expectations":[7,66],"(SBE)":[8],"outperform":[9],"standard":[10],"time":[11],"series":[12],"models":[13],"in":[14,87],"US":[15],"quarterly":[16],"inflation":[17,27,37,51,65],"out\u2010of\u2010sample":[18],"prediction":[19],"and":[20,67,71,78],"the":[22,33,46,82,88,91],"term":[23],"structure":[24],"of":[25,35,49,61,84,90],"forecasts":[28,86],"has":[29],"predictive":[30],"power":[31],"over":[32],"path":[34],"future":[36],"changes.":[38],"It":[39],"then":[40],"proposes":[41],"some":[42],"empirical":[43],"explanations":[44],"for":[45],"forecasting":[47],"success":[48],"expectations.":[52],"We":[53,80],"show":[54],"SBE":[56,85],"pool":[57],"a":[58],"large":[59],"amount":[60],"heterogeneous":[62],"information":[63],"on":[64],"react":[68],"more":[69],"flexibly":[70],"accurately":[72],"to":[73],"macro":[74],"conditions":[75],"both":[76],"contemporaneously":[77],"dynamically.":[79],"illustrate":[81],"flexibility":[83],"context":[89],"2008":[92],"financial":[93],"crisis.":[94],"Copyright":[95],"\u00a9":[96],"2011":[97],"John":[98],"Wiley":[99],"&":[100],"Sons,":[101],"Ltd.":[102]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}