{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2136169844","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002513496013","title":"Misses in \u201cHot Hand\u201d Research","display_name":"Misses in \u201cHot Hand\u201d Research","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-07-15","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2136169844","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002513496013","mag":"2136169844"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/1527002513496013","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002513496013","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002513496013","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S49327401","display_name":"Journal of Sports Economics","issn_l":"1527-0025","issn":["1527-0025","1552-7794"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Sports Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047909118","display_name":"Jeremy A. Arkes","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5278-4968","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5278-4968"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I35364215","display_name":"Naval Postgraduate School","ror":"https://ror.org/033yfkj90","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1330347796","https://openalex.org/I3130687028","https://openalex.org/I35364215"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jeremy Arkes","raw_affiliation_strings":["Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA","#N# 1Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35364215"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"#N# 1Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35364215"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5047909118"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35364215"],"apc_list":{"value":3650,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3650},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":8.6072,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":53,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97134315,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"14","issue":"4","first_page":"401","last_page":"410"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10813","display_name":"Sport Psychology and Performance","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hot-hand-effect","display_name":"hot hand effect","score":0.8870000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/momentum-effect","display_name":"momentum effect","score":0.6290000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nba-basketball","display_name":"NBA basketball","score":0.5860000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/free-throw","display_name":"free throw","score":0.9079999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/simulation-study","display_name":"simulation study","score":0.4569999873638153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-power","display_name":"statistical power","score":0.621999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/significance-testing","display_name":"significance testing","score":0.7760000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/shooting-performance","display_name":"shooting performance","score":0.37700000405311584}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103189561","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5372","display_name":"Basketball","level":2,"score":0.6321755051612854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199672914","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4241353","display_name":"Hot spot (computer programming)","level":2,"score":0.45880237221717834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4497220814228058},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4188171625137329},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.38075199723243713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112698675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37038","display_name":"Advertising","level":1,"score":0.33636173605918884},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.24599891901016235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95457728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q309","display_name":"History","level":0,"score":0.23313230276107788},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.13602882623672485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/1527002513496013","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002513496013","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002513496013","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S49327401","display_name":"Journal of Sports Economics","issn_l":"1527-0025","issn":["1527-0025","1552-7794"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Sports Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:sae:jospec:v:14:y:2013:i:4:p:401-410","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1527002513496013","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/65132","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/10945/65132","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400952","display_name":"Calhoun: The Naval Postgraduate School Institutional Archive (Naval Postgraduate School)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I35364215","host_organization_name":"Naval Postgraduate School","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I35364215"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320307890","display_name":"RAND Corporation","ror":"https://ror.org/00f2z7n96"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":24,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W566586761","https://openalex.org/W1497626734","https://openalex.org/W1502233779","https://openalex.org/W1513281941","https://openalex.org/W1707367756","https://openalex.org/W1757961761","https://openalex.org/W1993817487","https://openalex.org/W1998578398","https://openalex.org/W2016334400","https://openalex.org/W2024723898","https://openalex.org/W2028203519","https://openalex.org/W2051561710","https://openalex.org/W2058332016","https://openalex.org/W2060376905","https://openalex.org/W2064520478","https://openalex.org/W2076011229","https://openalex.org/W2104108898","https://openalex.org/W2109047492","https://openalex.org/W2130015969","https://openalex.org/W2136120210","https://openalex.org/W2159347796","https://openalex.org/W2665683789","https://openalex.org/W2889862107","https://openalex.org/W3123045587"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7164709963","https://openalex.org/W2051561710","https://openalex.org/W2104108898","https://openalex.org/W3096227971","https://openalex.org/W1993817487","https://openalex.org/W2940619485","https://openalex.org/W2908856850","https://openalex.org/W3131484134","https://openalex.org/W7100013582","https://openalex.org/W7095964426"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Until":[0],"recently,":[1],"no":[2],"study":[3],"has":[4],"found":[5],"evidence":[6],"for":[7,40,90],"the":[8,12,22,37,42,47,59,62,67,71],"\u201chot":[9],"hand\u201d":[10],"in":[11],"National":[13],"Basketball":[14],"Association.":[15],"Thus,":[16],"many":[17],"researchers":[18],"have":[19,50],"claimed":[20],"that":[21,34,58,81],"hot":[23,43,63,87,99],"hand":[24,44,64,88,100],"and":[25,49,57,70],"momentum":[26],"effects":[27],"are":[28],"myths.":[29],"This":[30],"article":[31],"presents":[32],"simulations":[33],"demonstrate":[35],"how":[36],"primary":[38],"methods":[39],"estimating":[41],"effect":[45,48,89],"understate":[46],"a":[51,85,96],"low":[52],"chance":[53],"of":[54,61,73,95],"detecting":[55],"significance":[56],"infrequency":[60],"contributes":[65],"to":[66,75],"understated":[68],"estimates":[69],"inability":[72],"tests":[74],"detect":[76],"significance.":[77],"These":[78],"results":[79],"suggest":[80],"recent":[82],"research":[83],"showing":[84],"small":[86],"free":[91],"throws":[92],"is":[93],"indicative":[94],"much":[97],"larger":[98],"effect.":[101]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}