{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2124562015","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808185105","title":"International migration beyond gravity: A statistical model for use in population projections","display_name":"International migration beyond gravity: A statistical model for use in population projections","publication_year":2008,"publication_date":"2008-09-29","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2124562015","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808185105","mag":"2124562015","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18824693","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2563137"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1073/pnas.0808185105","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808185105","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808185105","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S125754415","display_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","issn_l":"0027-8424","issn":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320052","host_organization_name":"National Academy of Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320052"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Academy of Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2563137","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5010543213","display_name":"Joel E. Cohen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9746-6725","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9746-6725"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I83399316","display_name":"Rockefeller University","ror":"https://ror.org/0420db125","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I83399316"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Joel E. Cohen","raw_affiliation_strings":["*Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller and Columbia Universities, 1230 York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY 10065-6399;"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"*Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller and Columbia Universities, 1230 York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY 10065-6399;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930","https://openalex.org/I83399316"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102292859","display_name":"Marta Roig","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1286959531","display_name":"United Nations","ror":"https://ror.org/006kxhp52","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1286959531"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I90130731","display_name":"United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs","ror":"https://ror.org/050bms902","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1286959531","https://openalex.org/I90130731"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marta Roig","raw_affiliation_strings":["Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2, United Nations Plaza DC2-1984, United Nations, New York, NY 10017;"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2, United Nations Plaza DC2-1984, United Nations, New York, NY 10017;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1286959531","https://openalex.org/I90130731"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047432772","display_name":"Daniel C. Reuman","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1407-8947","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1407-8947"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I47508984","display_name":"Imperial College London","ror":"https://ror.org/041kmwe10","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I47508984"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I83399316","display_name":"Rockefeller University","ror":"https://ror.org/0420db125","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I83399316"]}],"countries":["GB","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel C. Reuman","raw_affiliation_strings":["*Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller and Columbia Universities, 1230 York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY 10065-6399;","Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY Berkshire United Kingdom; and","*Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller and Columbia Universities, 1230 York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY 10065-6399;; Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY Berkshire United Kingdom; and"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"*Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller and Columbia Universities, 1230 York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY 10065-6399;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930","https://openalex.org/I83399316"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY Berkshire United Kingdom; and","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I47508984"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"*Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller and Columbia Universities, 1230 York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY 10065-6399;; Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY Berkshire United Kingdom; and","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I47508984","https://openalex.org/I78577930","https://openalex.org/I83399316"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084314504","display_name":"Cai GoGwilt","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cai GoGwilt","raw_affiliation_strings":["321 East 54th Street Apartment 4B, New York, NY 10022"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"321 East 54th Street Apartment 4B, New York, NY 10022","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":7.1455,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":121,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96384067,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"105","issue":"40","first_page":"15269","last_page":"15274"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10349","display_name":"Migration and Labor Dynamics","score":0.8062000274658203,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10349","display_name":"Migration and Labor Dynamics","score":0.8062000274658203,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.10140000283718109,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14466","display_name":"Migration, Health, Geopolitics, Historical Geography","score":0.018400000408291817,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/international-migration","display_name":"international migration","score":0.9950000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/migration-projections","display_name":"migration projections","score":0.6660000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gravity-model","display_name":"gravity model","score":0.9020000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generalized-linear-models","display_name":"generalized linear models","score":0.800000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-density","display_name":"population density","score":0.5490000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/emigration","display_name":"emigration","score":0.5870000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-projections","display_name":"population projections","score":0.574999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fertility-decline","display_name":"fertility decline","score":0.6790000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-information-criterion","display_name":"Bayesian information criterion","score":0.6159999966621399}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.6706500053405762},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776687071","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5265193","display_name":"Destinations","level":3,"score":0.6226449012756348},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C104151175","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q187668","display_name":"Emigration","level":2,"score":0.55711829662323},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87889798","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1543986","display_name":"Gravity model of trade","level":2,"score":0.5499276518821716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5408857464790344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.5272513628005981},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27574286","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q320723","display_name":"Variables","level":2,"score":0.48768460750579834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.47286367416381836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4614495038986206},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778680390","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2369019","display_name":"Population projection","level":4,"score":0.41916424036026},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3478546440601349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.31835412979125977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77352025","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q386191","display_name":"Population growth","level":3,"score":0.3007235527038574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.16165313124656677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.08983740210533142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155202549","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178803","display_name":"International trade","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18918823","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49389","display_name":"Tourism","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D004641","descriptor_name":"Emigration and Immigration","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011153","descriptor_name":"Population","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011156","descriptor_name":"Population Density","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011158","descriptor_name":"Population Growth","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014171","descriptor_name":"Transients and Migrants","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1073/pnas.0808185105","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808185105","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808185105","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S125754415","display_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","issn_l":"0027-8424","issn":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320052","host_organization_name":"National Academy of Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320052"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Academy of Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:2563137","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2563137","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:18824693","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18824693","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:2563137","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2563137","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A","raw_type":"Text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":24,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1528905581","https://openalex.org/W2045157507","https://openalex.org/W2057058618","https://openalex.org/W2070038677","https://openalex.org/W2076687999","https://openalex.org/W2077370824","https://openalex.org/W2079656678","https://openalex.org/W2107170335","https://openalex.org/W2114608286","https://openalex.org/W2125705164","https://openalex.org/W2126746204","https://openalex.org/W2141241595","https://openalex.org/W2146855196","https://openalex.org/W2153950165","https://openalex.org/W2318951588","https://openalex.org/W2336404792","https://openalex.org/W2481683720","https://openalex.org/W2497745734","https://openalex.org/W2625899094","https://openalex.org/W3021363589","https://openalex.org/W3124203353","https://openalex.org/W4291275091","https://openalex.org/W4295995202","https://openalex.org/W4301861531"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1884812443","https://openalex.org/W2795152156","https://openalex.org/W4401382635","https://openalex.org/W2949925589","https://openalex.org/W7125292774","https://openalex.org/W4405201413","https://openalex.org/W6898792498","https://openalex.org/W1863649320","https://openalex.org/W2329400675","https://openalex.org/W4385874644"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"International":[0],"migration":[1,97,232],"will":[2],"play":[3],"an":[4,22,155],"increasing":[5],"role":[6],"in":[7,188,241],"the":[8,62,68,117,177,184,196,204,236],"demographic":[9,48],"future":[10,26],"of":[11,28,56,60,78,86,96,123,135,137,139,144,152,186,191,203],"most":[12],"nations":[13],"if":[14],"fertility":[15],"continues":[16],"to":[17,24,36,74,102,129,133,213],"decline":[18],"globally.":[19],"We":[20],"developed":[21],"algorithm":[23],"project":[25],"numbers":[27,85,190],"international":[29],"migrants":[30,124,192],"from":[31,93,98,127,154,211],"any":[32,37],"country":[33],"or":[34,243],"region":[35],"other.":[38],"The":[39,81,107,121,150,231],"proposed":[40],"generalized":[41],"linear":[42],"model":[43,237],"(GLM)":[44],"used":[45],"geographic":[46],"and":[47,54,58,66,71,101,146,162,171,225],"independent":[49],"variables":[50,73],"only":[51],"(the":[52],"population":[53,161,164,245],"area":[55],"origins":[57,100],"destinations":[59,104],"migrants,":[61,87],"distance":[63],"between":[64],"origin":[65,128,156],"destination,":[67],"calendar":[69],"year,":[70],"indicator":[72,148],"quantify":[75],"nonrandom":[76],"characteristics":[77],"individual":[79],"countries).":[80],"dependent":[82],"variable,":[83],"yearly":[84],"was":[88,114,131],"quantified":[89],"by":[90,116,142,195,235],"43653":[91],"reports":[92],"11":[94],"countries":[95],"228":[99],"195":[103],"during":[105],"1960-2004.":[106],"final":[108],"GLM":[109],"based":[110],"on":[111,158],"all":[112],"data":[113,210],"selected":[115],"Bayesian":[118],"information":[119],"criterion.":[120],"number":[122,151],"per":[125],"year":[126,145,170,175],"destination":[130],"proportional":[132],"(population":[134],"origin)(0.86)(area":[136],"origin)(-0.21)(population":[138],"destination)(0.36)(distance)(-0.97),":[140],"multiplied":[141],"functions":[143],"country-specific":[147],"variables.":[149],"emigrants":[153],"depended":[157],"both":[159],"its":[160,163],"density.":[165],"For":[166],"a":[167,172],"variable":[168],"initial":[169],"fixed":[173],"terminal":[174],"2004,":[176,214],"parameter":[178],"estimates":[179,233],"appeared":[180],"stable.":[181],"Multiple":[182],"R(2),":[183],"fraction":[185],"variation":[187],"log":[189],"accounted":[193],"for":[194,209,218,223,229],"starting":[197],"model,":[198],"improved":[199],"gradually":[200],"with":[201],"recentness":[202],"data:":[205],"R(2)":[206,215,220,226],"=":[207,216,221,227],"0.57":[208],"1960":[212],"0.59":[217],"1985-2004,":[219],"0.61":[222],"1995-2004,":[224],"0.64":[228],"2000-2004.":[230],"generated":[234],"may":[238],"be":[239],"embedded":[240],"deterministic":[242],"stochastic":[244],"projections.":[246]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}