{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2123123798","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015186","title":"Capital Market, Severity of Business Cycle, and Probability of an Economic Downturn","display_name":"Capital Market, Severity of Business Cycle, and Probability of an Economic Downturn","publication_year":2007,"publication_date":"2007-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2123123798","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015186","mag":"2123123798"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.1015186","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015186","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015186","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015186","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022673001","display_name":"Piyapas Tharavanij","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5152-4865","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5152-4865"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I56590836","display_name":"Monash University","ror":"https://ror.org/02bfwt286","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Piyapas Tharavanij","raw_affiliation_strings":["Monash University - Department of Economics, Wellington Road, Clayton, Victoria 3, Australia","Monash University - Department of Economics"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Monash University - Department of Economics, Wellington Road, Clayton, Victoria 3, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Monash University - Department of Economics","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5022673001"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":10,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.7279999852180481,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.7279999852180481,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.25459998846054077,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.003100000089034438,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/capital-markets","display_name":"capital markets","score":0.8970000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-downturn","display_name":"economic downturn","score":0.8669999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/output-contraction","display_name":"output contraction","score":0.7720000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-growth","display_name":"economic growth","score":0.4259999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cross-national-comparison","display_name":"cross-national comparison","score":0.6190000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-development","display_name":"financial development","score":0.4259999990463257}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83873408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192311","display_name":"Business cycle","level":2,"score":0.8519047498703003},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.7989499568939209},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.520186185836792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.4091322720050812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.4050023555755615},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.37175071239471436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.2779715061187744}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":8,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.1015186","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015186","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015186","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai::4953","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4953/1/MPRA_paper_4953.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4953/1/MPRA_paper_4953.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400553","display_name":"Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","host_organization_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"MPRA Paper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:mos:moswps:2007-32","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2007/3207capitalmarkettharavanij.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2007/3207capitalmarkettharavanij.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:pra:mprapa:4953","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4953/1/MPRA_paper_4953.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4953/1/MPRA_paper_4953.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.584.3545","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.584.3545","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4953/1/MPRA_paper_4953.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.622.1577","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.622.1577","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5189/1/MPRA_paper_5189.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:3122991628","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:4953","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:3150270456","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/4953.html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400553","display_name":"Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","host_organization_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"MPRA Paper","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.1015186","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015186","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015186","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","score":0.7257999777793884,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":36,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1487761319","https://openalex.org/W1495009347","https://openalex.org/W1528470904","https://openalex.org/W1540900718","https://openalex.org/W1575116858","https://openalex.org/W1980419193","https://openalex.org/W2014676982","https://openalex.org/W2014919914","https://openalex.org/W2017239593","https://openalex.org/W2060569030","https://openalex.org/W2077440153","https://openalex.org/W2088563154","https://openalex.org/W2102897370","https://openalex.org/W2109083778","https://openalex.org/W2123105585","https://openalex.org/W2124758339","https://openalex.org/W2128131424","https://openalex.org/W2129138051","https://openalex.org/W2133637048","https://openalex.org/W2146234777","https://openalex.org/W2146922001","https://openalex.org/W2157354639","https://openalex.org/W2163035179","https://openalex.org/W2169760147","https://openalex.org/W2170545489","https://openalex.org/W2294027609","https://openalex.org/W2344129496","https://openalex.org/W3121183069","https://openalex.org/W3121447233","https://openalex.org/W3121759882","https://openalex.org/W3121935849","https://openalex.org/W3123855296","https://openalex.org/W3123899433","https://openalex.org/W3125147766","https://openalex.org/W3125339563","https://openalex.org/W4285719527"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7099038592","https://openalex.org/W2992178901","https://openalex.org/W2110539380","https://openalex.org/W2146922001","https://openalex.org/W7100159673","https://openalex.org/W7099103925","https://openalex.org/W2122976369","https://openalex.org/W7098156306","https://openalex.org/W7097404059","https://openalex.org/W7096269637"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}