{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2121069387","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12289","title":"Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change","display_name":"Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change","publication_year":2015,"publication_date":"2015-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2121069387","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12289","mag":"2121069387","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26423213"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/cogs.12289","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12289","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12289","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/cogs.12289","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S78735424","display_name":"Cognitive Science","issn_l":"0364-0213","issn":["0364-0213","1551-6709"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","erih-plus","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","medline","norway-2","poland-100","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Cognitive Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/cogs.12289","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5018605535","display_name":"Joshua A. Hemmerich","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40347166","display_name":"University of Chicago","ror":"https://ror.org/024mw5h28","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40347166"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Joshua A. Hemmerich","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Medicine, The University of Chicago"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medicine, The University of Chicago","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40347166"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068273873","display_name":"Kellie Van Voorhis","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40347166","display_name":"University of Chicago","ror":"https://ror.org/024mw5h28","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40347166"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kellie Van Voorhis","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Medicine, The University of Chicago"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medicine, The University of Chicago","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40347166"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028420397","display_name":"Jennifer Wiley","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2590-7392","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2590-7392"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I39422238","display_name":"University of Illinois Chicago","ror":"https://ror.org/02mpq6x41","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39422238"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jennifer Wiley","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Psychology, The University of Illinois at Chicago"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Psychology, The University of Illinois at Chicago","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39422238"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5028420397"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39422238"],"apc_list":{"value":4000,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4000},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.0101,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":23,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.77005495,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"40","issue":"6","first_page":"1534","last_page":"1560"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.28369998931884766,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.28369998931884766,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10072","display_name":"Science Education and Pedagogy","score":0.2117999941110611,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3304","display_name":"Education"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12887","display_name":"Educational Strategies and Epistemologies","score":0.08950000256299973,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/theory-change","display_name":"theory change","score":0.9679999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/belief-updating","display_name":"belief updating","score":0.6819999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/convergent-evidence","display_name":"convergent evidence","score":0.9290000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/alternative-theories","display_name":"alternative theories","score":0.9459999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dose-size","display_name":"dose size","score":0.49000000953674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scientific-reasoning","display_name":"scientific reasoning","score":0.46399998664855957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epistemic-trust","display_name":"epistemic trust","score":0.4230000078678131}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.637070894241333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.4444602131843567},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3310876488685608},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2612471878528595},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.21478760242462158}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007600","descriptor_name":"Judgment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D007600","descriptor_name":"Judgment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D007600","descriptor_name":"Judgment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008606","descriptor_name":"Mental Processes","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008606","descriptor_name":"Mental Processes","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008606","descriptor_name":"Mental Processes","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/cogs.12289","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12289","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12289","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/cogs.12289","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S78735424","display_name":"Cognitive Science","issn_l":"0364-0213","issn":["0364-0213","1551-6709"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","erih-plus","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","medline","norway-2","poland-100","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Cognitive Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:26423213","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26423213","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Cognitive science","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.700.2795","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.700.2795","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://my.ilstu.edu/%7Esfcroke/lab/fall15readings/Hemmerich%20et%20al%20%282015%29%20Anomalous%20Evidence%2C%20Confidence%20Change%2C%20and%20Theory%20Change.pdf","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/cogs.12289","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12289","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12289","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/cogs.12289","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S78735424","display_name":"Cognitive Science","issn_l":"0364-0213","issn":["0364-0213","1551-6709"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","erih-plus","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","medline","norway-2","poland-100","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Cognitive Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320315735","display_name":"ZOLL Medical Corporation","ror":"https://ror.org/036wkjd70"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2121069387.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2121069387.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":55,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W12452083","https://openalex.org/W256019955","https://openalex.org/W381902449","https://openalex.org/W590123328","https://openalex.org/W1172377516","https://openalex.org/W1510700152","https://openalex.org/W1582174699","https://openalex.org/W1675163538","https://openalex.org/W1699023120","https://openalex.org/W1777119744","https://openalex.org/W1825727708","https://openalex.org/W1967253999","https://openalex.org/W1972191699","https://openalex.org/W1973035334","https://openalex.org/W1975847479","https://openalex.org/W1976193044","https://openalex.org/W1976554401","https://openalex.org/W1981420039","https://openalex.org/W1986902484","https://openalex.org/W1987486785","https://openalex.org/W1989748540","https://openalex.org/W1991740178","https://openalex.org/W2011343193","https://openalex.org/W2012546675","https://openalex.org/W2016310005","https://openalex.org/W2021474171","https://openalex.org/W2028211630","https://openalex.org/W2029482225","https://openalex.org/W2031904534","https://openalex.org/W2034424392","https://openalex.org/W2045300586","https://openalex.org/W2060879435","https://openalex.org/W2072629384","https://openalex.org/W2081428640","https://openalex.org/W2089221954","https://openalex.org/W2093598796","https://openalex.org/W2101003077","https://openalex.org/W2105045377","https://openalex.org/W2108600252","https://openalex.org/W2111696429","https://openalex.org/W2124371667","https://openalex.org/W2125701689","https://openalex.org/W2135241964","https://openalex.org/W2149893809","https://openalex.org/W2154338033","https://openalex.org/W2166792455","https://openalex.org/W2260337708","https://openalex.org/W2285465674","https://openalex.org/W2505745866","https://openalex.org/W2621208586","https://openalex.org/W2624663037","https://openalex.org/W2742227015","https://openalex.org/W2891204375","https://openalex.org/W3136187364","https://openalex.org/W4243132915"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7035924839","https://openalex.org/W4386469877","https://openalex.org/W4415650014","https://openalex.org/W7047166900","https://openalex.org/W2080256953","https://openalex.org/W2888285351","https://openalex.org/W4226476349","https://openalex.org/W7033415389","https://openalex.org/W7096418100","https://openalex.org/W7096139009"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"A":[0],"novel":[1],"experimental":[2],"paradigm":[3],"that":[4,73,81,95],"measured":[5],"theory":[6,44,72,101,111,122,145,152],"change":[7,129],"and":[8,94,105,136,146],"confidence":[9,42,83,99,115,141],"in":[10,15,41,98,142],"participants'":[11,82],"theories":[12,138],"was":[13,52],"used":[14],"three":[16],"experiments":[17,79],"to":[18,33,113,133,151],"test":[19],"the":[20,28,75,88,106,134],"effects":[21],"of":[22,30,90,108],"anomalous":[23,31,50,76,91],"evidence.":[24,77],"Experiment":[25,46,62],"1":[26],"varied":[27,48,64],"amount":[29,89],"evidence":[32,51,92,104,118,135],"see":[34],"if":[35],"\"dose":[36],"size\"":[37],"made":[38],"incremental":[39],"changes":[40,84],"toward":[43],"change.":[45,116,153],"2":[47],"whether":[49,65],"convergent":[53],"(of":[54],"multiple":[55],"types)":[56],"or":[57],"replicating":[58],"(similar":[59],"finding":[60],"repeated).":[61],"3":[63],"participants":[66],"were":[67,85],"provided":[68],"with":[69,87],"an":[70,109],"alternative":[71,110,137],"explained":[74],"All":[78],"showed":[80],"commensurate":[86],"presented,":[93],"larger":[96,114],"decreases":[97],"predicted":[100],"changes.":[102,123],"Convergent":[103,117],"presentation":[107],"led":[112],"also":[119],"caused":[120],"more":[121],"Even":[124],"when":[125],"people":[126],"do":[127],"not":[128],"theories,":[130],"factors":[131],"pertinent":[132],"decrease":[139],"their":[140,143],"current":[144],"move":[147],"them":[148],"incrementally":[149],"closer":[150]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}