{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2120963751","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/004728750104000207","title":"An Integrative Approach to Tourism Forecasting: A Glance in the Rearview Mirror","display_name":"An Integrative Approach to Tourism Forecasting: A Glance in the Rearview Mirror","publication_year":2001,"publication_date":"2001-11-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2120963751","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/004728750104000207","mag":"2120963751"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/004728750104000207","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/004728750104000207","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/004728750104000207","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S157485431","display_name":"Journal of Travel Research","issn_l":"0047-2875","issn":["0047-2875","1552-6763"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-2","fnege-4","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Travel Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110436198","display_name":"Carmen Tideswell","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I11701301","display_name":"Griffith University","ror":"https://ror.org/02sc3r913","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I11701301"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Carmen Tideswell","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Tourism and Hotel Management at Griffith University, Gold Coast, in Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Tourism and Hotel Management at Griffith University, Gold Coast, in Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11701301"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068251338","display_name":"Trevor Mules","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I188329596","display_name":"University of Canberra","ror":"https://ror.org/04s1nv328","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I188329596"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Trevor Mules","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Communication at the University of Canberra in Belconnen, Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Communication at the University of Canberra in Belconnen, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I188329596"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078081637","display_name":"Bill Faulkner","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I11701301","display_name":"Griffith University","ror":"https://ror.org/02sc3r913","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I11701301"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bill Faulkner","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Tourism and Hotel Management Research, Faculty of Commerce and Management, at Griffith University, Gold Coast, in Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Tourism and Hotel Management Research, Faculty of Commerce and Management, at Griffith University, Gold Coast, in Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11701301"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3900,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3900},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":35,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.24812092,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"40","issue":"2","first_page":"162","last_page":"171"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10055","display_name":"Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research","score":0.0026000000070780516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12584","display_name":"Hospitality and Tourism Education","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1409","display_name":"Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tourism-forecasting","display_name":"tourism forecasting","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/top-down-and-bottom-up-approaches","display_name":"top-down and bottom-up approaches","score":0.718999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/delphi-method","display_name":"Delphi method","score":0.9309999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/international-tourism","display_name":"international tourism","score":0.49799999594688416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/domestic-tourism","display_name":"domestic tourism","score":0.9959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tourist-segmentation","display_name":"tourist segmentation","score":0.5099999904632568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/small-sample-forecasting","display_name":"small sample prediction","score":0.5059999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-updating","display_name":"forecast updating","score":0.6819999814033508}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18918823","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49389","display_name":"Tourism","level":2,"score":0.867506742477417},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C60641444","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q841602","display_name":"Delphi method","level":2,"score":0.6596508026123047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776034101","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1509347","display_name":"Commission","level":2,"score":0.6279284954071045},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779495148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q487378","display_name":"Delphi","level":2,"score":0.5246003866195679},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91602232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q756115","display_name":"Volatility (finance)","level":2,"score":0.5089185237884521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162853370","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39809","display_name":"Marketing","level":1,"score":0.44290757179260254},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776225096","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12089958","display_name":"Domestic tourism","level":4,"score":0.4257763624191284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4195573925971985},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.39768186211586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148383697","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1781695","display_name":"Regional science","level":1,"score":0.3505690097808838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.34518635272979736},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.311026394367218},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.30561697483062744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.2275146245956421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.18220782279968262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75545042","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1350203","display_name":"Tourism geography","level":3,"score":0.17259442806243896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.16560956835746765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.16194632649421692},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.11672523617744446},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/004728750104000207","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/004728750104000207","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/004728750104000207","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S157485431","display_name":"Journal of Travel Research","issn_l":"0047-2875","issn":["0047-2875","1552-6763"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-2","fnege-4","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Travel Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:epubs.scu.edu.au:gcm_pubs-1008","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://epubs.scu.edu.au/gcm_pubs/9","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400270","display_name":"Cross Connect (Southern Cross University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I66809481","host_organization_name":"Southern Cross University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I66809481"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Southern Cross Business School","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:research-repository.griffith.edu.au:10072/4007","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10072/4007","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407064376","display_name":"Griffith Research Online","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Journal article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","score":0.6600000262260437}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W130167087","https://openalex.org/W139976163","https://openalex.org/W632779033","https://openalex.org/W632792309","https://openalex.org/W1502038133","https://openalex.org/W1502596632","https://openalex.org/W1537118983","https://openalex.org/W1768416179","https://openalex.org/W1967909975","https://openalex.org/W1993230942","https://openalex.org/W1996538121","https://openalex.org/W2017637192","https://openalex.org/W2021875799","https://openalex.org/W2027656543","https://openalex.org/W2058428373","https://openalex.org/W2060783388","https://openalex.org/W2089508621","https://openalex.org/W2096578312","https://openalex.org/W2133997191","https://openalex.org/W2142306660","https://openalex.org/W2148218042","https://openalex.org/W2149045411","https://openalex.org/W2335281868","https://openalex.org/W3200473828","https://openalex.org/W4234838512"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2034430502","https://openalex.org/W2102895614","https://openalex.org/W2112145909","https://openalex.org/W3108100274","https://openalex.org/W1967909975","https://openalex.org/W2061943323","https://openalex.org/W43944012","https://openalex.org/W2142306660","https://openalex.org/W2918056337","https://openalex.org/W2172234679"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0],"1996,":[1],"the":[2,48,58,71,83,94,126,138],"South":[3,62,84],"Australian":[4,85],"Tourism":[5],"Commission":[6],"initiated":[7],"a":[8,28,38,54],"tourism":[9,19,67,79,133],"forecasting":[10,24,49,134],"and":[11,33,65,100,122,143],"economic":[12],"impact":[13],"study":[14],"to":[15,42,47,132,145],"assess":[16],"their":[17],"future":[18],"industry":[20,45],"potential.":[21],"The":[22,51,90],"integrative":[23],"approach":[25],"adopted":[26],"advocates":[27],"combination":[29],"of":[30,57,70,128],"quantitative":[31],"top-down":[32],"bottom-up":[34],"approaches,":[35],"along":[36],"with":[37],"qualitative":[39],"delphi":[40],"survey":[41],"gather":[43],"key":[44],"input":[46],"process.":[50],"article":[52],"provides":[53],"retrospective":[55],"assessment":[56],"forecast":[59,95],"accuracy":[60,96,110],"for":[61,75,97,115],"Australia\u2019s":[63],"domestic":[64,101],"international":[66,99],"markets.":[68],"Consideration":[69],"most":[72],"appropriate":[73],"methods":[74],"updating":[76],"existing":[77],"state":[78],"forecasts,":[80],"based":[81],"on":[82],"experience,":[86],"is":[87],"also":[88],"made.":[89],"findings":[91],"suggest":[92],"that":[93],"both":[98],"visitors":[102],"was":[103],"quite":[104,141],"high":[105],"overall.":[106],"However,":[107],"this":[108],"apparent":[109],"disguises":[111],"some":[112],"significant":[113,146],"inaccuracies":[114],"particular":[116],"segments,":[117],"such":[118],"as":[119],"New":[120],"Zealand":[121],"Other":[123],"Asia,":[124],"illustrating":[125],"difficulty":[127],"using":[129],"time-series-type":[130],"approaches":[131],"in":[135],"situations":[136],"where":[137],"numbers":[139],"are":[140],"small":[142],"subject":[144],"volatility.":[147]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}