{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2120385648","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","title":"Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications","display_name":"Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-07-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2120385648","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","mag":"2120385648"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3386/w17239","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},"volume":null,"type":"report","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112084481","display_name":"Jeffrey A. Frankel","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1321305853","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","ror":"https://ror.org/04grmx538","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jeffrey Frankel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Kennedy School of Government Harvard University 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 and","NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Kennedy School of Government Harvard University 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 and","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5112084481"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853","https://openalex.org/I136199984"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":62,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11621","display_name":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","score":0.9945999979972839,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11621","display_name":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","score":0.9945999979972839,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.0017999999690800905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.0012000000569969416,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-bias","display_name":"forecast bias","score":0.7850000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/budget-deficit","display_name":"budget deficit","score":0.7950000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fiscal-rules","display_name":"fiscal rules","score":0.7200000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stability-and-growth-pact","display_name":"Stability and Growth Pact","score":0.8109999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/structural-deficit","display_name":"structural deficit","score":0.7749999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fiscal-retrenchment","display_name":"fiscal retrenchment","score":0.7099999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-boom","display_name":"economic boom","score":0.6919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fiscal-policy","display_name":"fiscal policy","score":0.36000001430511475}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204017024","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485446","display_name":"Optimism","level":2,"score":0.8352028131484985},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.39998993277549744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.38033339381217957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.24411603808403015},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.16126775741577148}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3386/w17239","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3386/w17239","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w17239","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2120385648.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2120385648.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":62,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W610525374","https://openalex.org/W1488495998","https://openalex.org/W1505939518","https://openalex.org/W1543726461","https://openalex.org/W1550777309","https://openalex.org/W1566633716","https://openalex.org/W1567534106","https://openalex.org/W1568447185","https://openalex.org/W1571031900","https://openalex.org/W1571528476","https://openalex.org/W1572948810","https://openalex.org/W1580182564","https://openalex.org/W1593757101","https://openalex.org/W1604004780","https://openalex.org/W1639085805","https://openalex.org/W1703659053","https://openalex.org/W1790518811","https://openalex.org/W1946685606","https://openalex.org/W1964439415","https://openalex.org/W1966991239","https://openalex.org/W1975067240","https://openalex.org/W1986691647","https://openalex.org/W1987075885","https://openalex.org/W1988012429","https://openalex.org/W1991228689","https://openalex.org/W2013251058","https://openalex.org/W2014576398","https://openalex.org/W2025527812","https://openalex.org/W2034421007","https://openalex.org/W2042743632","https://openalex.org/W2045843512","https://openalex.org/W2047875665","https://openalex.org/W2048117587","https://openalex.org/W2061854465","https://openalex.org/W2099982304","https://openalex.org/W2111692239","https://openalex.org/W2123261522","https://openalex.org/W2128729871","https://openalex.org/W2128807177","https://openalex.org/W2132438881","https://openalex.org/W2133127087","https://openalex.org/W2145706026","https://openalex.org/W2152147980","https://openalex.org/W2157480652","https://openalex.org/W2160162076","https://openalex.org/W2172120792","https://openalex.org/W2249081876","https://openalex.org/W2321939094","https://openalex.org/W2493357154","https://openalex.org/W2892124730","https://openalex.org/W2935708756","https://openalex.org/W2979402405","https://openalex.org/W3122415955","https://openalex.org/W3123103783","https://openalex.org/W3123358936","https://openalex.org/W3123408038","https://openalex.org/W3124542543","https://openalex.org/W3124578848","https://openalex.org/W3125583472","https://openalex.org/W4214913183","https://openalex.org/W6678755987","https://openalex.org/W7020774695"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2118539753","https://openalex.org/W2187187846","https://openalex.org/W7096161787","https://openalex.org/W4319864735","https://openalex.org/W4393957614","https://openalex.org/W2807974289","https://openalex.org/W7084267159","https://openalex.org/W4387354313","https://openalex.org/W1497573874","https://openalex.org/W3094985050"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"paper":[1],"studies":[2],"forecasts":[3,21,55,131,189],"of":[4,70,96,123,132,157,181,190,211],"real":[5],"growth":[6,133,191],"rates":[7],"and":[8,126,134,142,192,219],"budget":[9,60,118,135,182,194,217],"balances":[10],"made":[11],"by":[12,94,172,177],"official":[13,54,130,188],"government":[14],"agencies":[15],"among":[16],"33":[17],"countries.In":[18],"general,":[19],"the":[20,45,63,102,107,121,158,193,206,212,226],"are":[22,138],"found:":[23],"(i)":[24],"to":[25,32,39,65,78,116,164,168,215,223],"have":[26,195],"a":[27,74,117,179],"positive":[28],"average":[29],"bias,":[30],"(ii)":[31],"be":[33,40,92],"more":[34,42,140,143],"biased":[35,43,141],"in":[36,53,120,185,201,205,225],"booms,":[37],"(iii)":[38],"even":[41,139,200],"at":[44,49],"3-year":[46],"horizon":[47],"than":[48,147,176],"shorter":[50],"horizons.This":[51],"over-optimism":[52],"can":[56,91],"help":[57,153],"explain":[58,154],"excessive":[59],"deficits,":[61],"especially":[62],"failure":[64],"run":[66,216],"surpluses":[67],"during":[68],"periods":[69],"high":[71],"output:":[72],"if":[73],"boom":[75],"is":[76,82],"forecasted":[77],"last":[79],"indefinitely,":[80],"retrenchment":[81],"treated":[83],"as":[84,99],"unnecessary.Many":[85],"believe":[86],"that":[87,137],"better":[88,105],"fiscal":[89,170],"policy":[90],"obtained":[93],"means":[95],"rules":[97],"such":[98],"ceilings":[100],"for":[101],"deficit":[103],"or,":[104],"yet,":[106],"structural":[108],"deficit.But":[109],"we":[110],"also":[111],"find:":[112],"(iv)":[113],"countries":[114,204],"subject":[115],"rule,":[119],"form":[122],"euroland's":[124],"Stability":[125],"Growth":[127],"Path,":[128],"make":[129],"deficits":[136],"correlated":[144],"with":[145],"booms":[146],"do":[148],"other":[149],"countries.This":[150],"effect":[151],"may":[152],"frequent":[155],"violations":[156],"SGP.One":[159],"country,":[160],"Chile,":[161],"has":[162],"managed":[163],"overcome":[165],"governments'":[166],"tendency":[167],"satisfy":[169],"targets":[171],"wishful":[173],"thinking":[174],"rather":[175],"action.As":[178],"result":[180],"institutions":[183],"created":[184],"2000,":[186],"Chile's":[187],"not":[196],"been":[197],"overly":[198],"optimistic,":[199],"booms.Unlike":[202],"many":[203],"North,":[207],"Chile":[208],"took":[209],"advantage":[210],"2002-07":[213],"expansion":[214],"surpluses,":[218],"so":[220],"was":[221],"able":[222],"ease":[224],"2008-09":[227],"recession.":[228]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":22},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":9}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
