{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2104821283","doi":null,"title":"Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand","display_name":"Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand","publication_year":2003,"publication_date":"2003-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2104821283","mag":"2104821283"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:nzt:nztwps:03/22","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-09/twp03-22.pdf","pdf_url":"https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-09/twp03-22.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205527","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033725625","display_name":"Khoon Lek Goh","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Khoon Lek Goh","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5033725625"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":11,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9804999828338623,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9804999828338623,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.015200000256299973,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.0008999999845400453,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumer-confidence","display_name":"consumer confidence","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumer-spending","display_name":"consumer spending","score":0.9210000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumption-forecasting","display_name":"consumption forecasting","score":0.7260000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/new-zealand","display_name":"New Zealand","score":0.6200000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/labour-income","display_name":"labor income","score":0.8519999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interest-rates","display_name":"interest rates","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stock-prices","display_name":"stock prices","score":0.9629999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-indicators","display_name":"economic indicators","score":0.38199999928474426}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96405632","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128416","display_name":"Consumer confidence index","level":2,"score":0.9632517099380493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C30772137","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5164762","display_name":"Consumption (sociology)","level":2,"score":0.7090299725532532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.6469809412956238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5447618961334229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204036174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q909380","display_name":"Stock (firearms)","level":2,"score":0.5414493083953857},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C23213687","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q301468","display_name":"Consumer behaviour","level":2,"score":0.45700275897979736},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.3821840286254883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3220823109149933},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162853370","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39809","display_name":"Marketing","level":1,"score":0.2731122076511383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.26232442259788513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.13577836751937866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.1165371835231781},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.08089339733123779},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C36289849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q34749","display_name":"Social science","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:nzt:nztwps:03/22","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-09/twp03-22.pdf","pdf_url":"https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-09/twp03-22.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:2104821283","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/205527/1/twp2003-22.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/205527","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205527","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/205527","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205527","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":11,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W28607594","https://openalex.org/W1565623544","https://openalex.org/W1990437151","https://openalex.org/W1992338415","https://openalex.org/W1993881686","https://openalex.org/W2037432647","https://openalex.org/W2081845494","https://openalex.org/W2169878477","https://openalex.org/W3121914372","https://openalex.org/W3123801771","https://openalex.org/W3125466725"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2969261122","https://openalex.org/W2585219186","https://openalex.org/W2985312354","https://openalex.org/W2169878477","https://openalex.org/W1201755668","https://openalex.org/W7045632052","https://openalex.org/W7099209787","https://openalex.org/W2142676207","https://openalex.org/W2145786564","https://openalex.org/W1837952288"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"examines":[2],"the":[3,49,56],"ability":[4,80,88],"of":[5,42,68,116,157],"consumer":[6,43,69,108,118],"confidence":[7,44,70,109,119,136],"to":[8,76,145],"forecast":[9],"consumption":[10,83],"expenditure":[11],"in":[12,45,140],"New":[13,46],"Zealand.":[14],"A":[15],"two-step":[16],"process":[17],"commonly":[18],"used":[19],"by":[20,26],"other":[21],"researchers,":[22],"which":[23],"was":[24,32,89],"developed":[25],"Carroll,":[27],"Fuhrer":[28],"and":[29,39,55,100,128],"Wilcox":[30],"(1994),":[31],"utilised.":[33],"The":[34],"two":[35],"most":[36],"widely":[37],"followed":[38],"reported":[40],"measures":[41],"Zealand":[47],"\u2013":[48,63,95],"One":[50],"News":[51],"Colmar":[52],"Brunton":[53],"Poll":[54],"Westpac":[57],"McDermott":[58],"Miller":[59],"Consumer":[60],"Confidence":[61],"Survey":[62],"were":[64,74,104],"used.":[65],"Lagged":[66],"values":[67],"on":[71],"its":[72],"own":[73],"found":[75],"have":[77],"some":[78],"predictive":[79,87],"for":[81,131,154],"forecasting":[82,132],"growth.":[84],"However,":[85,134],"this":[86],"greatly":[90],"reduced":[91],"when":[92],"control":[93],"variables":[94],"labour":[96],"income,":[97],"interest":[98],"rates":[99],"stock":[101],"prices":[102],"-":[103],"introduced,":[105],"suggesting":[106],"that":[107],"merely":[110],"reflects":[111],"current":[112,158],"economic":[113,127,146,159],"conditions.":[114,160],"Because":[115],"this,":[117],"provides":[120],"little":[121],"additional":[122],"information":[123,153],"above":[124],"readily":[125],"available":[126,139],"financial":[129],"data":[130],"consumption.":[133],"since":[135],"indexes":[137],"are":[138],"a":[141],"timely":[142],"manner":[143],"compared":[144],"data,":[147],"they":[148],"still":[149],"provide":[150],"useful":[151],"summary":[152],"making":[155],"assessments":[156]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-09-29T14:09:16.559479","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
