{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2104576232","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2003.009","title":"Subjective Probabilities: Psychological Evidence and Economic Applications","display_name":"Subjective Probabilities: Psychological Evidence and Economic Applications","publication_year":2003,"publication_date":"2003-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2104576232","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2003.009","mag":"2104576232"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.20955/wp.2003.009","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2003.009","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2003.009","pdf_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2003/2003-009.pdf","source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","raw_type":"report"},"volume":null,"type":"report","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2003/2003-009.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":null},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041003595","display_name":"Abbigail J. Chiodo","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Abbigail J. Chiodo","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059698112","display_name":"Massimo Guidolin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2995-2529","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2995-2529"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Massimo Guidolin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033238882","display_name":"Michael T. Owyang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2109-3432","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2109-3432"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michael T. Owyang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2109-3432","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071689860","display_name":"Makoto Shimoji","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7895-9620","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7895-9620"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Makoto Shimoji","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":4,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10646","display_name":"Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10517","display_name":"Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/subjective-probability","display_name":"subjective probability","score":0.8659999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heuristics","display_name":"heuristics","score":0.6510000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/belief-formation","display_name":"belief formation","score":0.6200000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/behavioral-economics","display_name":"behavioral economics","score":0.5139999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expected-utility","display_name":"expected utility","score":0.656000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rationality","display_name":"rationality","score":0.4519999921321869},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-judgment","display_name":"probability judgment","score":0.4339999854564667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-bias","display_name":"cognitive biases","score":0.43700000643730164}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.5252560973167419},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.401628702878952},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.36802545189857483},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3364788293838501},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.30851876735687256}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.20955/wp.2003.009","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2003.009","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2003.009","pdf_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2003/2003-009.pdf","source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","raw_type":"report"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-009","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2003/2003-009.pdf","pdf_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2003/2003-009.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.20955/wp.2003.009","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2003.009","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2003.009","pdf_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2003/2003-009.pdf","source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","raw_type":"report"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","score":0.8199999928474426}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2104576232.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2104576232.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":97,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W79789520","https://openalex.org/W105140810","https://openalex.org/W158727920","https://openalex.org/W396497823","https://openalex.org/W646664410","https://openalex.org/W1469046834","https://openalex.org/W1484799109","https://openalex.org/W1504424287","https://openalex.org/W1535427446","https://openalex.org/W1563443617","https://openalex.org/W1588628656","https://openalex.org/W1590276698","https://openalex.org/W1591196347","https://openalex.org/W1598305105","https://openalex.org/W1604526811","https://openalex.org/W1608453074","https://openalex.org/W1883896725","https://openalex.org/W1967573006","https://openalex.org/W1977145788","https://openalex.org/W1980054641","https://openalex.org/W1980219954","https://openalex.org/W1998054917","https://openalex.org/W2005472104","https://openalex.org/W2006969013","https://openalex.org/W2007747810","https://openalex.org/W2007785900","https://openalex.org/W2011696830","https://openalex.org/W2013795651","https://openalex.org/W2021819864","https://openalex.org/W2022753826","https://openalex.org/W2035021579","https://openalex.org/W2035782089","https://openalex.org/W2035920101","https://openalex.org/W2050643653","https://openalex.org/W2052072893","https://openalex.org/W2056563076","https://openalex.org/W2057925076","https://openalex.org/W2061807031","https://openalex.org/W2065273716","https://openalex.org/W2069862959","https://openalex.org/W2078848594","https://openalex.org/W2082543837","https://openalex.org/W2082592367","https://openalex.org/W2085870190","https://openalex.org/W2089762183","https://openalex.org/W2090553893","https://openalex.org/W2094811782","https://openalex.org/W2098324822","https://openalex.org/W2103679355","https://openalex.org/W2103795087","https://openalex.org/W2105171007","https://openalex.org/W2116442885","https://openalex.org/W2119143694","https://openalex.org/W2119390153","https://openalex.org/W2132363418","https://openalex.org/W2132717186","https://openalex.org/W2132763749","https://openalex.org/W2147578392","https://openalex.org/W2147644661","https://openalex.org/W2148962857","https://openalex.org/W2169052632","https://openalex.org/W2171860432","https://openalex.org/W2219722162","https://openalex.org/W2323331210","https://openalex.org/W2605696691","https://openalex.org/W2889806521","https://openalex.org/W2890222871","https://openalex.org/W2891881928","https://openalex.org/W2892110981","https://openalex.org/W2975308768","https://openalex.org/W2992744445","https://openalex.org/W3022961351","https://openalex.org/W3023063214","https://openalex.org/W3023376117","https://openalex.org/W3049534666","https://openalex.org/W3121252329","https://openalex.org/W3122085899","https://openalex.org/W3122383726","https://openalex.org/W3122792809","https://openalex.org/W3123819895","https://openalex.org/W3125135614","https://openalex.org/W3125780646","https://openalex.org/W3125856986","https://openalex.org/W3125885902","https://openalex.org/W3126022481","https://openalex.org/W3162099472","https://openalex.org/W4206439541","https://openalex.org/W4233594550","https://openalex.org/W4238721503","https://openalex.org/W4247556833","https://openalex.org/W4251292562","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4298859389","https://openalex.org/W4302036006","https://openalex.org/W6603280999","https://openalex.org/W6651961590","https://openalex.org/W6675594207"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1570611624","https://openalex.org/W2156419887","https://openalex.org/W1603588340","https://openalex.org/W2102472315","https://openalex.org/W1039833841","https://openalex.org/W7037247545","https://openalex.org/W2066525807","https://openalex.org/W1518484475","https://openalex.org/W2048892347","https://openalex.org/W4237084503"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Real-life":[0],"decision":[1],"makers":[2],"are":[3,22,125],"often":[4],"forced":[5],"to":[6,28,45,47,66,114],"estimate":[7],"the":[8,58,71,126,133,137],"likelihood":[9,72],"of":[10,54,73,80,136,141],"uncertain":[11,74],"future":[12],"events.Usually,":[13],"economists":[14],"assume":[15],"that":[16,32,41,61,83],"agents":[17],"behave":[18],"as":[19],"though":[20],"they":[21,33],"fully":[23],"rational,":[24],"employing":[25],"statistical":[26],"rules":[27,53,86],"assess":[29],"probabilities,":[30],"and":[31,87,91,129],"maximize":[34],"expected":[35],"utility.Psychological":[36],"studies,":[37],"however,":[38],"have":[39,63],"shown":[40,65],"people":[42,62],"tend":[43],"not":[44,131],"adhere":[46],"these":[48,85,97],"rationality":[49],"postulates.We":[50],"review":[51],"three":[52],"thumb":[55],"taken":[56],"from":[57,102],"psychology":[59],"literature":[60],"been":[64],"rely":[67],"on":[68],"when":[69],"assessing":[70],"events.We":[75],"construct":[76],"a":[77],"simple":[78],"model":[79],"belief":[81],"formation":[82],"incorporates":[84],"present":[88],"one":[89],"formal":[90],"two":[92],"illustrative":[93],"applications":[94],"in":[95],"which":[96],"psychological":[98],"phenomena":[99],"cause":[100],"deviations":[101],"anticipated":[103],"economic":[104],"outcomes.(JEL":[105],"codes:":[106],"D84,":[107],"G12)":[108],"1":[109],"The":[110],"authors":[111],"would":[112],"like":[113],"thank":[115],"Mark":[116],"L.":[117],"Opitz":[118],"for":[119],"research":[120],"assistance.The":[121],"view":[122],"expressed":[123],"herein":[124],"authors'":[127],"alone":[128],"do":[130],"represent":[132],"official":[134],"views":[135],"Federal":[138],"Reserve":[139],"Bank":[140],"St":[142]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
