{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2104345271","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","title":"Choosing a model to predict hospital admission: an observational study of new variants of predictive models for case finding","display_name":"Choosing a model to predict hospital admission: an observational study of new variants of predictive models for case finding","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-08-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2104345271","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","mag":"2104345271","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23980068","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3753475"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","pdf_url":"https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/3/8/e003352.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S79054089","display_name":"BMJ Open","issn_l":"2044-6055","issn":["2044-6055"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-d","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319945","host_organization_name":"BMJ","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319945"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["BMJ"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMJ Open","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/3/8/e003352.full.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5111792534","display_name":"John Billings","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I57206974","display_name":"New York University","ror":"https://ror.org/0190ak572","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"John Billings","raw_affiliation_strings":["Robert F Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University, New York, New York, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Robert F Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University, New York, New York, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036649949","display_name":"Theo Georghiou","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9532-876X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9532-876X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I186567439","display_name":"Nuffield Trust","ror":"https://ror.org/05htb0v42","country_code":"GB","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Theo Georghiou","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Research, Nuffield Trust, London, UK","Nuffield Trust"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Research, Nuffield Trust, London, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Nuffield Trust","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026973776","display_name":"Ian Blunt","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I186567439","display_name":"Nuffield Trust","ror":"https://ror.org/05htb0v42","country_code":"GB","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ian Blunt","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Research, Nuffield Trust, London, UK","Nuffield Trust"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Research, Nuffield Trust, London, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Nuffield Trust","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030923673","display_name":"Martin Bardsley","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9853-6019","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9853-6019"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I186567439","display_name":"Nuffield Trust","ror":"https://ror.org/05htb0v42","country_code":"GB","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Martin Bardsley","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Research, Nuffield Trust, London, UK","Nuffield Trust"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Research, Nuffield Trust, London, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Nuffield Trust","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5036649949"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186567439"],"apc_list":{"value":1500,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":1839},"apc_paid":{"value":1500,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":1839},"fwci":4.9492,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":64,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95199461,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":87,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"3","issue":"8","first_page":"e003352","last_page":"e003352"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13702","display_name":"Machine Learning in Healthcare","score":0.7217000126838684,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13702","display_name":"Machine Learning in Healthcare","score":0.7217000126838684,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11095","display_name":"Emergency and Acute Care Studies","score":0.08150000125169754,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2711","display_name":"Emergency Medicine"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11396","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare","score":0.04360000044107437,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3605","display_name":"Health Information Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hospital-admission-prediction","display_name":"hospital admission prediction","score":0.9139999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/emergency-admissions","display_name":"emergency admissions","score":0.7170000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hospital-readmission","display_name":"hospital readmission","score":0.8309999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/case-finding","display_name":"case finding","score":0.8289999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictive-model","display_name":"prediction model","score":0.8059999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electronic-health-records","display_name":"electronic health records","score":0.7870000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/general-practitioner-records","display_name":"general practitioner records","score":0.597000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inpatient-medical-records","display_name":"inpatient medical records","score":0.6600000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-calibration","display_name":"model calibration","score":0.6710000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-denominators","display_name":"population denominators","score":0.9359999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/primary-care","display_name":"primary care","score":0.5860000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/positive-predictive-value","display_name":"positive predictive value","score":0.7490000128746033}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.867664098739624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C23131810","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q818574","display_name":"Observational study","level":2,"score":0.655978262424469},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58471807","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q327120","display_name":"Receiver operating characteristic","level":2,"score":0.5646511316299438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.5619131326675415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5181909203529358},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780724011","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1295316","display_name":"Emergency department","level":2,"score":0.5179785490036011},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778136018","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10350689","display_name":"Predictive power","level":2,"score":0.5058009624481201},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C194828623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2861470","display_name":"Emergency medicine","level":1,"score":0.4578839838504791},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58489278","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172284","display_name":"Data set","level":2,"score":0.42514580488204956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019719930","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3910099","display_name":"Predictive value","level":2,"score":0.4189506471157074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161584116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1952580","display_name":"Multivariate statistics","level":2,"score":0.4126274585723877},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3726044297218323},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187212893","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q123028","display_name":"Pediatrics","level":1,"score":0.3472089171409607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.16107043623924255},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118552586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7867","display_name":"Psychiatry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","pdf_url":"https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/3/8/e003352.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S79054089","display_name":"BMJ Open","issn_l":"2044-6055","issn":["2044-6055"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-d","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319945","host_organization_name":"BMJ","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319945"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["BMJ"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMJ Open","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:2745590","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3753475","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:23980068","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23980068","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMJ open","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:3753475","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3753475/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMJ Open","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003352","pdf_url":"https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/3/8/e003352.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S79054089","display_name":"BMJ Open","issn_l":"2044-6055","issn":["2044-6055"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-d","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319945","host_organization_name":"BMJ","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319945"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["BMJ"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMJ Open","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.98580002784729}],"study_designs":[{"display_name":"Observational Study","id":"https://openalex.org/study-designs/observational-study"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2104345271.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2104345271.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":9,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1991611483","https://openalex.org/W2000445173","https://openalex.org/W2010765667","https://openalex.org/W2082797339","https://openalex.org/W2086923543","https://openalex.org/W2116680794","https://openalex.org/W2117347619","https://openalex.org/W2119101349","https://openalex.org/W2788381369"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4281260886","https://openalex.org/W3200791281","https://openalex.org/W2073380496","https://openalex.org/W7073826660","https://openalex.org/W7100584785","https://openalex.org/W2078242043","https://openalex.org/W2901424910","https://openalex.org/W4396771417","https://openalex.org/W2553803064","https://openalex.org/W1896329176"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"OBJECTIVES:":[0],"To":[1],"test":[2,73],"the":[3,23,42,48,51,55,116,128,145,169,184,199,230,236,281,289,295],"performance":[4,49,242],"of":[5,8,15,25,44,50,57,75,115,137,147,155,163,176,235,250,285,297],"new":[6],"variants":[7],"models":[9,52,200,222,237,265],"to":[10,72,105,202,216,261,280,300],"identify":[11],"people":[12,91],"at":[13],"risk":[14,124],"an":[16],"emergency":[17,180],"hospital":[18,107,181],"admission.":[19],"We":[20],"compared":[21,112],"(1)":[22],"impact":[24],"using":[26,64],"alternative":[27],"data":[28,66,69,139,204,253],"sources":[29],"(hospital":[30],"inpatient,":[31],"A&E,":[32],"outpatient":[33],"and":[34,53,78,109,120,126,243],"general":[35],"practitioner":[36],"(GP)":[37],"electronic":[38,165],"medical":[39,166],"records)":[40],"(2)":[41],"effects":[43],"local":[45,203],"calibration":[46],"on":[47,97],"(3)":[54],"choice":[56],"population":[58,210],"denominators.":[59,79],"DESIGN:":[60],"Multivariate":[61],"logistic":[62],"regressions":[63],"person-level":[65],"adding":[67],"each":[68,138],"set":[70,140],"sequentially":[71],"value":[74,119],"additional":[76],"variables":[77],"SETTING:":[80],"5":[81],"Primary":[82],"Care":[83],"Trusts":[84],"within":[85],"England.":[86],"PARTICIPANTS:":[87],"1":[88],"836":[89],"099":[90],"aged":[92],"18-95":[93],"registered":[94],"with":[95,127,150,161,178],"GPs":[96],"31":[98],"July":[99],"2009.":[100],"MAIN":[101],"OUTCOME":[102],"MEASURES:":[103],"Models":[104],"predict":[106],"admission":[108],"readmission":[110],"were":[111,259],"in":[113,144,183,229,271,294],"terms":[114],"positive":[117,156],"predictive":[118,157,246],"sensitivity":[121],"for":[122,226,304],"various":[123],"strata":[125],"receiver":[129],"operating":[130],"curve":[131],"C":[132],"statistic.":[133],"RESULTS:":[134],"The":[135,188,248],"addition":[136,249],"showed":[141],"moderate":[142],"improvement":[143],"number":[146,175],"patients":[148,177,286],"identified":[149,171,287],"little":[151],"or":[152],"no":[153,179],"loss":[154],"value.":[158,247],"However,":[159],"even":[160],"inclusion":[162],"GP":[164,213],"record":[167],"information,":[168],"algorithms":[170,290],"only":[172],"a":[173,224],"small":[174],"admissions":[182],"previous":[185],"2":[186],"years.":[187],"model":[189,276],"pooled":[190,264],"across":[191],"all":[192],"sites":[193],"performed":[194,266],"almost":[195],"as":[196,198],"well":[197,268],"calibrated":[201],"from":[205,212],"just":[206],"one":[207],"site.":[208],"Using":[209],"denominators":[211],"registers":[214],"led":[215],"better":[217],"case":[218],"finding.":[219],"CONCLUSIONS:":[220],"These":[221],"provide":[223,291],"basis":[225],"wider":[227],"application":[228],"National":[231],"Health":[232],"Service.":[233],"Each":[234],"examined":[238],"produces":[239],"reasonably":[240],"robust":[241],"offers":[244],"some":[245,255],"more":[251],"complex":[252],"adds":[254],"value,":[256],"but":[257],"we":[258],"unable":[260],"conclude":[262],"that":[263],"less":[267],"than":[269],"those":[270],"individual":[272],"sites.":[273],"Choices":[274],"about":[275],"should":[277],"be":[278],"linked":[279],"intervention":[282,298],"design.":[283],"Characteristics":[284],"by":[288],"useful":[292],"information":[293],"design/costing":[296],"strategies":[299],"improve":[301],"care":[302],"coordination/outcomes":[303],"these":[305],"patients.":[306]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}