{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2103419213","doi":null,"title":"Surprisingly Rational: Evidence that people follow probability theory when judging probabilities, and that biases in judgment are due to noise","display_name":"Surprisingly Rational: Evidence that people follow probability theory when judging probabilities, and that biases in judgment are due to noise","publication_year":2012,"publication_date":"2012-11-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2103419213","mag":"2103419213"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"mag:2103419213","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1211.0501v1.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","raw_type":null},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1211.0501v1.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044724458","display_name":"Fintan Costello","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3953-7863","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3953-7863"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fintan Costello","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3953-7863","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045589780","display_name":"Paul Watts","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7940-4387","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7940-4387"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Paul Watts","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7940-4387","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9955999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9955999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.00139999995008111,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12574","display_name":"Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills","score":0.0005000000237487257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2714","display_name":"Family Practice"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-judgment","display_name":"probability judgment","score":0.824999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-theory","display_name":"probability theory","score":0.6740000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-bias","display_name":"cognitive biases","score":0.7590000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-reasoning","display_name":"probabilistic reasoning","score":0.6380000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conjunction-fallacy","display_name":"conjunction fallacy","score":0.4779999852180481}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.6050964593887329},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99498987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2210247","display_name":"Noise (video)","level":3,"score":0.5454148054122925},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122203268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5862903","display_name":"Probability theory","level":2,"score":0.5094552636146545},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.47524499893188477},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.45780348777770996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.4426640272140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986577269","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11306265","display_name":"Random noise","level":2,"score":0.4426132142543793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43596424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q98124957","display_name":"Probability and statistics","level":2,"score":0.4365849792957306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778334786","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1586270","display_name":"Variation (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.42735493183135986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.423621267080307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.3230244517326355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3019370436668396},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.19478940963745117},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.06647869944572449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44870925","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37547","display_name":"Astrophysics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115961682","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q860623","display_name":"Image (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"mag:2103419213","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1211.0501v1.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"mag:2103419213","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1211.0501v1.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","raw_type":null},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.46000000834465027,"display_name":"Reduced inequalities","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/10"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":10,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1990584714","https://openalex.org/W2011862666","https://openalex.org/W2034692761","https://openalex.org/W2035782089","https://openalex.org/W2043763623","https://openalex.org/W2054875343","https://openalex.org/W2058042886","https://openalex.org/W2108049329","https://openalex.org/W2167366201","https://openalex.org/W2990384283"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2023087011","https://openalex.org/W2416416762","https://openalex.org/W3101713375","https://openalex.org/W2786985713","https://openalex.org/W2516562442","https://openalex.org/W2786136439","https://openalex.org/W3097088775","https://openalex.org/W199993446","https://openalex.org/W2765486803","https://openalex.org/W4236433272"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"systematic":[1],"biases":[2,34],"and":[3,80],"errors":[4],"seen":[5],"in":[6],"people's":[7],"probability":[8,21,26,42,63,92],"judgments":[9],"are":[10,35],"typically":[11],"taken":[12],"as":[13,89],"evidence":[14],"that":[15,32,73],"people":[16,39,100],"do":[17],"not":[18],"reason":[19],"about":[20],"using":[22],"the":[23,30,51,62],"rules":[24],"of":[25,38,64,85,108,115],"theory.":[27,93],"We":[28],"show":[29],"contrary:":[31],"these":[33],"a":[36,58,106],"consequence":[37],"correctly":[40],"following":[41],"theory,":[43],"but":[44],"with":[45],"random":[46,69],"variation":[47,70],"or":[48,78],"noise":[49],"affecting":[50],"reasoning":[52],"process.":[53],"Taking":[54],"P_E(A)":[55],"to":[56,101],"represent":[57],"person's":[59],"estimate":[60,102],"for":[61,82,105],"some":[65],"event":[66],"A,":[67],"this":[68,116],"account":[71],"predicts":[72],"on":[74],"average":[75],"P_E(A)+P_E(B)-":[76],"P_E(A":[77],"B)-P_E(A":[79],"B)=0":[81],"all":[83],"pairs":[84,109],"events":[86],"A,B,":[87],"just":[88],"required":[90],"by":[91],"Analysing":[94],"data":[95],"from":[96],"an":[97],"experiment":[98],"asking":[99],"such":[103],"probabilities":[104],"number":[107],"A,B":[110],"we":[111],"find":[112],"striking":[113],"confirmation":[114],"prediction.":[117]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-07-28T07:46:37.118299","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}