{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2102679301","doi":null,"title":"ECONOMETRIC MODELLING FOR SHORT-TERM INFLATION FORECASTING IN THE EMU.","display_name":"ECONOMETRIC MODELLING FOR SHORT-TERM INFLATION FORECASTING IN THE EMU.","publication_year":2004,"publication_date":"2004-02-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2102679301","mag":"2102679301"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.198.5166","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.198.5166","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.efn.uni-bocconi.it/Papers/InflationEMU.pdf","raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10016/198","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032148581","display_name":"Antoni Espasa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7213-3206","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7213-3206"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Antoni Espasa","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7213-3206","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5052864771","display_name":"Rebeca Albacete","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rebeca Albacete","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.0197,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":12,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91313238,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.7099999785423279,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.7099999785423279,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.28519999980926514,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13399","display_name":"Unemployment and Economic Growth","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/emu","display_name":"emu","score":0.6320000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cointegration","display_name":"cointegration","score":0.8989999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/vector-error-correction-model","display_name":"vector error correction model","score":0.8370000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/core-inflation","display_name":"core inflation","score":0.6299999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dummy-variables","display_name":"dummy variables","score":0.5569999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/brent-oil-price","display_name":"Brent oil price","score":0.515999972820282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/euro-adoption","display_name":"euro adoption","score":0.5260000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/food-prices","display_name":"food prices","score":0.4440000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.3199999928474426}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.7888352274894714},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.7701416015625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145162277","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1751675","display_name":"Cointegration","level":2,"score":0.7310982942581177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6837245225906372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4679612","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q866298","display_name":"Aggregate (composite)","level":2,"score":0.5282028317451477},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180075932","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5333342","display_name":"Econometric model","level":2,"score":0.5017168521881104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.4735918343067169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.4717341661453247},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.4177033305168152},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.3894873559474945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.06538864970207214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78519656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101333","display_name":"Mechanical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228736","display_name":"Materials science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43617362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170050","display_name":"Chromatography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159985019","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181790","display_name":"Composite material","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.198.5166","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.198.5166","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.efn.uni-bocconi.it/Papers/InflationEMU.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:2102679301","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.eui.eu/Documents/RSCAS/Research/EFN/WorkingPapers/InflationEMU.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws034309","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/ad543b96-5fdf-47ab-b626-cc8e4a219a52/content","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:e-archivo.uc3m.es:10016/198","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10016/198","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400817","display_name":"e-Archivo (Carlos III University of Madrid)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I50357001","host_organization_name":"Universidad Carlos III de Madrid","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I50357001"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:e-archivo.uc3m.es:10016/198","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10016/198","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400817","display_name":"e-Archivo (Carlos III University of Madrid)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I50357001","host_organization_name":"Universidad Carlos III de Madrid","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I50357001"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":18,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1506578846","https://openalex.org/W1554590022","https://openalex.org/W1983936468","https://openalex.org/W1985118187","https://openalex.org/W2024011340","https://openalex.org/W2034707435","https://openalex.org/W2038601479","https://openalex.org/W2095364399","https://openalex.org/W2120405033","https://openalex.org/W2132710913","https://openalex.org/W2135033868","https://openalex.org/W2153562738","https://openalex.org/W2335606794","https://openalex.org/W2906742169","https://openalex.org/W3023090772","https://openalex.org/W3122917695","https://openalex.org/W3123864838","https://openalex.org/W3125696988"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3123078662","https://openalex.org/W2288117174","https://openalex.org/W7098197532","https://openalex.org/W7019138074","https://openalex.org/W1594733584","https://openalex.org/W2168679086","https://openalex.org/W1493548378","https://openalex.org/W1594179482","https://openalex.org/W1996409865","https://openalex.org/W7110490763"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Inflation":[0],"forecasts":[1,172,220,264,407],"are":[2,80,100,234,390,412,431],"in":[3,8,43,52,73,81,104,115,166,177,226,339,345,369,374,387,395,409],"great":[4],"demand":[5],"by":[6,155,205],"agents":[7],"financial":[9],"markets":[10,165],"and":[11,140,173,180,184,321,332,428],"monetary":[12],"authorities":[13],"that":[14,47,59,94,107,148,151,196,230,351,377],"also":[15,261],"require":[16],"frequent":[17],"updates.":[18],"In":[19,119],"the":[20,23,38,50,95,98,105,116,130,136,149,222,227,241,251,273,279,283,301,304,311,313,325,333,342,346,367,375,396,403,423,432],"case":[21],"of":[22,33,55,68,76,97,164,198,221,240,278,285,291,303,310,315,327,335,355,363],"EMU,":[24,312],"these":[25],"can":[26,90,187],"be":[27,92,188],"done":[28],"monthly":[29],"using":[30],"Harmonised":[31],"Indices":[32],"Consumer":[34],"Prices":[35],"(HICP).":[36],"Analysing":[37],"HICP":[39,51,117,131,228],"it":[40,348],"was":[41],"detected":[42],"a":[44,53,66,74,121,157,175,215,308,352,360],"previous":[45],"paper":[46,146,194,347,411],"breaking":[48],"down":[49],"vector":[54,75,259,270,280],"n":[56,77,137],"sectors":[57,204,421],"so":[58],"each":[60,161,167],"price":[61,138,158,200,380,385,399],"index":[62,99,159,381],"component":[63],"corresponds":[64],"to":[65,125,134,288,299],"group":[67,163],"relatively":[69],"homogeneous":[70],"markets,":[71],"or":[72,237,255,268],"countries,":[78],"there":[79,108],"both":[82,153],"cases":[83],"fewer":[84],"than":[85,111,265,393],"(n-1)":[86],"cointegration":[87,212],"relationships.":[88],"It":[89],"then":[91],"said":[93],"components":[96,139],"not":[101,359],"fully":[102],"cointegrated":[103],"sense":[106],"is":[109,133,253,349,358,382],"more":[110,391],"one":[112,123,235,238],"common":[113],"trend":[114,132],"vector.":[118],"such":[120,229,294],"case,":[122],"way":[124],"increase":[126],"sample":[127],"information":[128],"about":[129],"consider":[135],"approach":[141],"disaggregated":[142,406],"econometric":[143],"modelling.":[144],"The":[145,193,405],"shows":[147,195],"breakdown":[150,343],"joins":[152],"criteria":[154],"considering":[156],"for":[160,190,272,414],"large":[162],"country":[168],"improves":[169],"EMU":[170],"inflation":[171,224,357,371,426],"establishes":[174],"framework":[176],"which":[178,388,420],"general":[179],"specific":[181],"explanatory":[182],"variables":[183,287],"non-linear":[185],"structures":[186],"introduced":[189],"further":[191],"improvements.":[192],"VEqCM":[197],"ten":[199],"indices":[201,386],"\"":[202,209],"two":[203],"five":[206],"geographical":[207],"areas":[208],"including":[210],"three":[211,254],"relationships,":[213],"with":[214,384],"sector-block":[216],"diagonal":[217],"restriction,":[218],"generates":[219],"year-on-year":[223],"rate":[225],"their":[231],"error":[232],"variances":[233],"third":[236],"fifth":[239],"forecast":[242],"errors":[243],"from":[244,402],"an":[245],"aggregate":[246],"ARIMA":[247],"model,":[248],"depending":[249],"whether":[250],"horizon":[252],"twelve":[256],"months.":[257],"This":[258],"model":[260,281],"provides":[262],"better":[263],"single-equation":[266],"models":[267,271],"alternative":[269],"components.":[274],"A":[275],"successful":[276],"formulation":[277],"requires":[282],"inclusion":[284,334],"dummy":[286],"take":[289],"account":[290],"special":[292],"events":[293,323],"as":[295],"seasonality":[296],"changes":[297],"due":[298],"sales,":[300],"introduction":[302,314],"euro,":[305],"Greece":[306],"becoming":[307],"member":[309],"ecological":[316],"taxes,":[317],"bad":[318],"weather":[319],"periods":[320],"others":[322],"altering":[324],"evolution":[326],"unprocessed":[328],"food":[329],"prices,":[330],"etc.":[331],"international":[336],"Brent":[337],"prices":[338],"euros.":[340],"With":[341],"used":[344],"shown":[350],"usual":[353],"measure":[354],"core":[356,370],"good":[361],"predictor":[362],"total":[364],"inflation,":[365],"but":[366],"interest":[368],"could":[372],"lie":[373],"fact":[376],"its":[378],"corresponding":[379],"constructed":[383],"innovations":[389],"persistent":[392,430],"those":[394],"other":[397],"consumer":[398],"indexes":[400],"excluded":[401],"core.":[404],"presented":[408],"this":[410],"useful":[413],"policy-making":[415],"because":[416],"they":[417],"tell":[418],"us":[419],"have":[422],"highest":[424],"expected":[425],"rates":[427],"how":[429],"shocks":[433],"affecting":[434],"different":[435],"sectors.":[436]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-01T08:54:57.152042","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
