{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2099857041","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1303.6604","title":"Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?","display_name":"Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-03-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2099857041","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1303.6604","mag":"2099857041"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:uuid:e43627ba-d31a-497d-aaf6-6e76e826e91c","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://doi.org/10.1080/01944360208976273","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402636","display_name":"Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","host_organization_name":"University of Oxford","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/777","raw_type":"Article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6604","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5005958261","display_name":"Bent Flyvbjerg","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9093-770X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9093-770X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I83467386","display_name":"IT University of Copenhagen","ror":"https://ror.org/02309jg23","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I83467386"]}],"countries":["DK","GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Flyvbjerg, Bent","raw_affiliation_strings":["IT University of Copenhagen","University of Oxford - Said Business School"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"IT University of Copenhagen","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I83467386"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oxford - Said Business School","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112798345","display_name":"Mette Skamris Holm","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Holm, Mette K. Skamris","raw_affiliation_strings":["Aalborg Municipality"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Aalborg Municipality","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110738012","display_name":"S\u00f8ren L. Buhl","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I891191580","display_name":"Aalborg University","ror":"https://ror.org/04m5j1k67","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I891191580"]}],"countries":["DK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Buhl, S\u00f8ren L.","raw_affiliation_strings":["[Aalborg university]"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"[Aalborg university]","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I891191580"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":27.7798,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":228,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99728662,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.7455999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.7455999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11621","display_name":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","score":0.06989999860525131,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11770","display_name":"Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth","score":0.042500000447034836,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-underestimation","display_name":"cost underestimation","score":0.8849999904632568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-escalation","display_name":"cost escalation","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transportation-projects","display_name":"transportation projects","score":0.828000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-works","display_name":"public works","score":0.8259999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-benefit-analysis","display_name":"cost-benefit analysis","score":0.703000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/strategic-misrepresentation","display_name":"strategic misrepresentation","score":0.9610000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-estimate","display_name":"cost estimate","score":0.4480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/project-decision-making","display_name":"project decision-making","score":0.46000000834465027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infrastructure-investment","display_name":"infrastructure investment","score":0.3179999887943268}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779602731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q30067981","display_name":"Misrepresentation","level":2,"score":0.7244415283203125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.4751186966896057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.44515687227249146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776291640","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2912517","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.4225383996963501},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.41135886311531067},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3405008316040039},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.3402130603790283},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.23500996828079224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.19036820530891418},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.1477571725845337},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.13417518138885498},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43617362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170050","display_name":"Chromatography","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":11,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:uuid:e43627ba-d31a-497d-aaf6-6e76e826e91c","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://doi.org/10.1080/01944360208976273","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402636","display_name":"Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","host_organization_name":"University of Oxford","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/777","raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:arx:papers:1303.6604","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6604","pdf_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6604","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:1303.6604","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/1303.6604","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6604","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt98r01936","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/98r01936.pdf;origin=repeccitec","pdf_url":"https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/98r01936.pdf;origin=repeccitec","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:2099857041","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2361458_code1935014.pdf?abstractid=2278415&mirid=1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:3122986019","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/cdluctcwp/qt98r01936.htm","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt98r01936","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/98r01936","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/e05ea7d0-9c2e-11db-8ed6-000ea68e967b","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://vbn.aau.dk/da/publications/e05ea7d0-9c2e-11db-8ed6-000ea68e967b","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401731","display_name":"VBN Forskningsportal (Aalborg Universitet)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I891191580","host_organization_name":"Aalborg University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I891191580"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Flyvbjerg, B, Holm, M K S & Buhl, S L 2002, 'Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects : Error or Lie?', Journal of the American Planning Association, vol. 68, no. 3, pp. 279 - 295.","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:qt98r01936","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/98r01936","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette Skamris; & Buhl, S\u00c3\u00b8ren. (2006). Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?. University of California Transportation Center. UC Berkeley: University of California Transportation Center. Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/98r01936","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.1303.6604","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1303.6604","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1303.6604","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article-journal"},{"id":"mag:3217459658","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/98r01936.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306533893","display_name":"University of California Transportation Center","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"University of California Transportation Center","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:1303.6604","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/1303.6604","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6604","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","score":0.550000011920929}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":8,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W130588855","https://openalex.org/W654049825","https://openalex.org/W1531195620","https://openalex.org/W1542305406","https://openalex.org/W1561827467","https://openalex.org/W2083552118","https://openalex.org/W2093878443","https://openalex.org/W3122667643"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2203045134","https://openalex.org/W2598397370","https://openalex.org/W2626996958","https://openalex.org/W7112968798","https://openalex.org/W1532162934","https://openalex.org/W2799515464","https://openalex.org/W2272797133","https://openalex.org/W1531550018","https://openalex.org/W612309706","https://openalex.org/W1040799563"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"article":[1],"presents":[2],"results":[3],"from":[4],"the":[5,47,93],"first":[6],"statistically":[7],"significant":[8],"study":[9],"of":[10,21,92],"cost":[11,48,102],"escalation":[12],"in":[13],"transportation":[14,23],"infrastructure":[15,24],"projects.":[16],"Based":[17],"on":[18],"a":[19],"sample":[20],"258":[22],"projects":[25,55],"worth":[26],"US$90":[27],"billion":[28],"and":[29,36,61,70,90,104,111],"representing":[30],"different":[31],"project":[32,109],"types,":[33],"geographical":[34],"regions,":[35],"historical":[37],"periods,":[38],"it":[39],"is":[40,71],"found":[41],"with":[42],"overwhelming":[43],"statistical":[44],"significance":[45],"that":[46,77],"estimates":[49,103],"used":[50],"to":[51],"decide":[52],"whether":[53],"such":[54],"should":[56,99],"be":[57,66],"built":[58],"are":[59,83],"highly":[60],"systematically":[62],"misleading.":[63],"Underestimation":[64],"cannot":[65],"explained":[67,73],"by":[68,74,108],"error":[69],"best":[72],"strategic":[75],"misrepresentation,":[76],"is,":[78],"lying.":[79],"The":[80],"policy":[81],"implications":[82],"clear:":[84],"legislators,":[85],"administrators,":[86],"investors,":[87],"media":[88],"representatives,":[89],"members":[91],"public":[94],"who":[95],"value":[96],"honest":[97],"numbers":[98],"not":[100],"trust":[101],"cost-benefit":[105],"analyses":[106],"produced":[107],"promoters":[110],"their":[112],"analysts.":[113]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":17},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":28},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":17},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":14}],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}