{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2097536801","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700003809","title":"Stochastic Claims Reserving in General Insurance","display_name":"Stochastic Claims Reserving in General Insurance","publication_year":2002,"publication_date":"2002-08-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2097536801","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700003809","mag":"2097536801"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1017/s1357321700003809","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700003809","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700003809","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764900385","display_name":"British Actuarial Journal","issn_l":"1357-3217","issn":["1357-3217","2044-0456"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"British Actuarial Journal","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050726005","display_name":"Peter D. England","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"P.D. England","raw_affiliation_strings":["EMB Consultancy, Saddlers Court, 64-74 East Street, Epsom, Surrey KT17 1HP, U.K. E-mail:","EMB Consultancy, Saddlers Court, 64-74 East Street, Epsom, Surrey KT17 1HP, U.K. E-mail: peter.england@emb.co.uk"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"EMB Consultancy, Saddlers Court, 64-74 East Street, Epsom, Surrey KT17 1HP, U.K. E-mail:","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"EMB Consultancy, Saddlers Court, 64-74 East Street, Epsom, Surrey KT17 1HP, U.K. E-mail: peter.england@emb.co.uk","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054086696","display_name":"Richard J. Verrall","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4098-9792","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4098-9792"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"R.J. Verrall","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":0,"currency":"USD","value_usd":0},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":13.7131,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":446,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98838543,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":99,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"8","issue":"3","first_page":"443","last_page":"518"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11720","display_name":"Probability and Risk Models","score":0.9711999893188477,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11720","display_name":"Probability and Risk Models","score":0.9711999893188477,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.013299999758601189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12394","display_name":"Insurance and Financial Risk Management","score":0.009800000116229057,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/non-life-insurance","display_name":"non-life insurance","score":0.984000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/chain-ladder","display_name":"chain ladder","score":0.6650000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/parametric-curves","display_name":"parametric curves","score":0.46799999475479126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-error","display_name":"prediction error","score":0.7319999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictive-distribution","display_name":"predictive distribution","score":0.8510000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/best-estimate","display_name":"best estimate","score":0.7009999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dynamic-financial-analysis","display_name":"dynamic financial analysis","score":0.9919999837875366}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6569940447807312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132459708","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q744069","display_name":"Extrapolation","level":2,"score":0.6158902049064636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.6001647710800171},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127491075","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7617825","display_name":"Stochastic modelling","level":2,"score":0.5475170016288757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3770464","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775963","display_name":"Smoothing","level":2,"score":0.5134183168411255},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.4934209883213043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.4662301540374756},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.44732779264450073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.4194461405277252},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.37209534645080566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3386427164077759},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.2730461359024048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2701898217201233},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228736","display_name":"Materials science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159985019","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181790","display_name":"Composite material","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1017/s1357321700003809","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700003809","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700003809","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764900385","display_name":"British Actuarial Journal","issn_l":"1357-3217","issn":["1357-3217","2044-0456"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"British Actuarial Journal","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:cup:bracjl:v:8:y:2002:i:03:p:443-518_00","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1357321700003809/type/journal_article","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":50,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W587144078","https://openalex.org/W1513618424","https://openalex.org/W1970948949","https://openalex.org/W1985611875","https://openalex.org/W1987255543","https://openalex.org/W1993693796","https://openalex.org/W1994043281","https://openalex.org/W1995945562","https://openalex.org/W2002637277","https://openalex.org/W2003440659","https://openalex.org/W2003557277","https://openalex.org/W2005374956","https://openalex.org/W2010295655","https://openalex.org/W2027395414","https://openalex.org/W2030289141","https://openalex.org/W2031126475","https://openalex.org/W2038777978","https://openalex.org/W2045185238","https://openalex.org/W2046336369","https://openalex.org/W2053467329","https://openalex.org/W2056297376","https://openalex.org/W2058218656","https://openalex.org/W2059493444","https://openalex.org/W2060360734","https://openalex.org/W2065540158","https://openalex.org/W2103371101","https://openalex.org/W2106399863","https://openalex.org/W2117118065","https://openalex.org/W2118641598","https://openalex.org/W2124349276","https://openalex.org/W2131579167","https://openalex.org/W2134548066","https://openalex.org/W2142096701","https://openalex.org/W2154100502","https://openalex.org/W2168663226","https://openalex.org/W2314476599","https://openalex.org/W2316942828","https://openalex.org/W2323560658","https://openalex.org/W2328425223","https://openalex.org/W2785738802","https://openalex.org/W2797583072","https://openalex.org/W2911329779","https://openalex.org/W3106889297","https://openalex.org/W4211145850","https://openalex.org/W4240217800","https://openalex.org/W4242212377","https://openalex.org/W4245393920","https://openalex.org/W4249303080","https://openalex.org/W4249837405","https://openalex.org/W4301861531"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2401826883","https://openalex.org/W7095867577","https://openalex.org/W565273688","https://openalex.org/W7033078128","https://openalex.org/W2936328185","https://openalex.org/W2765680763","https://openalex.org/W2750323519","https://openalex.org/W1506759572","https://openalex.org/W1590000954","https://openalex.org/W1559454907"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"ABSTRACT":[0],"This":[1],"paper":[2],"considers":[3],"a":[4,61,116,150],"wide":[5],"range":[6],"of":[7,41,51,75,81,88,90,92,108,120,127,149,156],"stochastic":[8,18,82],"reserving":[9,83],"models":[10,19,28,37,84],"for":[11,38,48],"use":[12,160],"in":[13,96,145,161],"general":[14],"insurance,":[15],"beginning":[16],"with":[17,137],"which":[20,45,64],"reproduce":[21],"the":[22,39,42,49,86,103,141,147,154],"traditional":[23],"chain-ladder":[24],"reserve":[25,93,122],"estimates.":[26],"The":[27,54,78,133],"are":[29,131,135],"extended":[30],"to":[31,68,71],"consider":[32],"parametric":[33],"curves":[34],"and":[35,95,124,140,159],"smoothing":[36],"shape":[40],"development":[43],"run-off,":[44],"allow":[46],"extrapolation":[47],"estimation":[50],"tail":[52],"factors.":[53],"Bornhuetter-Ferguson":[55],"technique":[56],"is":[57,85,100,115],"also":[58],"considered,":[59],"within":[60],"Bayesian":[62],"framework,":[63],"allows":[65],"expert":[66],"opinion":[67],"be":[69],"used":[70],"provide":[72],"prior":[73],"estimates":[74],"ultimate":[76],"claims.":[77],"primary":[79],"advantage":[80],"availability":[87],"measures":[89],"precision":[91],"estimates,":[94],"this":[97],"respect,":[98],"attention":[99],"focused":[101],"on":[102],"root":[104],"mean":[105],"squared":[106],"error":[107],"prediction":[109],"(prediction":[110],"error).":[111],"Of":[112],"greater":[113],"interest":[114],"full":[117],"predictive":[118],"distribution":[119,130],"possible":[121],"outcomes,":[123],"different":[125],"methods":[126],"obtaining":[128],"that":[129],"described.":[132],"techniques":[134],"illustrated":[136],"examples":[138],"throughout,":[139],"wider":[142],"issues":[143],"discussed,":[144],"particular,":[146],"concept":[148],"\u2018best":[151],"estimate\u2019;":[152],"reporting":[153],"variability":[155],"claims":[157],"reserves;":[158],"dynamic":[162],"financial":[163],"analysis":[164],"models.":[165]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":17},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":20},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":25},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":25},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":23},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":31},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":33},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":32},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":23},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":19}],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
