{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2094158166","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00760.x","title":"Time to Burn: Modeling Wildland Arson as an Autoregressive Crime Function","display_name":"Time to Burn: Modeling Wildland Arson as an Autoregressive Crime Function","publication_year":2005,"publication_date":"2005-07-15","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2094158166","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00760.x","mag":"2094158166"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00760.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00760.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00760.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S91754907","display_name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","issn_l":"0002-9092","issn":["0002-9092","1467-8276"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071723812","display_name":"Jeffrey P. Prestemon","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8850-5668","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8850-5668"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1313416372","display_name":"US Forest Service","ror":"https://ror.org/03zmjc935","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1313416372","https://openalex.org/I1336096307"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210115267","display_name":"Southern Research Station","ror":"https://ror.org/022ethc91","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1313416372","https://openalex.org/I1336096307","https://openalex.org/I4210115267"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jeffrey P. Prestemon","raw_affiliation_strings":["Southern Research Station USDA Forest Service Research Triangle Park North Carolina","Southern Research Station of the USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Southern Research Station USDA Forest Service Research Triangle Park North Carolina","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210115267"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Southern Research Station of the USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1313416372","https://openalex.org/I4210115267"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058481264","display_name":"David T. Butry","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5134-9419","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5134-9419"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1313416372","display_name":"US Forest Service","ror":"https://ror.org/03zmjc935","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1313416372","https://openalex.org/I1336096307"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210115267","display_name":"Southern Research Station","ror":"https://ror.org/022ethc91","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1313416372","https://openalex.org/I1336096307","https://openalex.org/I4210115267"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David T. Butry","raw_affiliation_strings":["Southern Research Station USDA Forest Service Research Triangle Park North Carolina","Southern Research Station of the USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Southern Research Station USDA Forest Service Research Triangle Park North Carolina","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210115267"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Southern Research Station of the USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1313416372","https://openalex.org/I4210115267"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3750,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3750},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":10.1757,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":118,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97590665,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"87","issue":"3","first_page":"756","last_page":"770"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10574","display_name":"Crime Patterns and Interventions","score":0.9057999849319458,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10574","display_name":"Crime Patterns and Interventions","score":0.9057999849319458,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10555","display_name":"Fire effects on ecosystems","score":0.05869999900460243,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11762","display_name":"Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems","score":0.007600000128149986,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/poisson-autoregressive-model","display_name":"Poisson autoregressive model","score":0.9340000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autocorrelation","display_name":"autocorrelation","score":0.7889999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-variation","display_name":"seasonal variation","score":0.7059999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/law-enforcement","display_name":"law enforcement","score":0.7630000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wildland-management","display_name":"wildland management","score":0.9879999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/historical-fire","display_name":"historical fire","score":0.7129999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weather-effects","display_name":"weather effects","score":0.7049999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wages","display_name":"wages","score":0.5429999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/poverty","display_name":"poverty","score":0.9940000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-model-of-crime","display_name":"economic model of crime","score":0.9700000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fire-ecology","display_name":"fire ecology","score":0.4300000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/florida","display_name":"Florida","score":0.8309999704360962}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780309315","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q327541","display_name":"Arson","level":2,"score":0.9857473373413086},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.5278477668762207},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100906024","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205692","display_name":"Poisson distribution","level":2,"score":0.45514705777168274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4435526430606842},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.40925538539886475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.40807703137397766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3953379690647125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.32620561122894287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2936544418334961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00760.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00760.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00760.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S91754907","display_name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","issn_l":"0002-9092","issn":["0002-9092","1467-8276"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.502.5005","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.502.5005","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/ja/ja_prestemon018.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.925.6631","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.925.6631","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://ajae.oxfordjournals.org/content/87/3/756.full.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:87:y:2005:i:3:p:756-770","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00760.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.6207000017166138,"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320315660","display_name":"Joint Fire Science Program","ror":"https://ror.org/03ccbtk93"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":47,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W81705164","https://openalex.org/W143616629","https://openalex.org/W1490091093","https://openalex.org/W1533432464","https://openalex.org/W1854260920","https://openalex.org/W1973628995","https://openalex.org/W1977454152","https://openalex.org/W1978271550","https://openalex.org/W1979470337","https://openalex.org/W1986706382","https://openalex.org/W2005028768","https://openalex.org/W2020233488","https://openalex.org/W2029260280","https://openalex.org/W2031231895","https://openalex.org/W2054619286","https://openalex.org/W2069420657","https://openalex.org/W2070878475","https://openalex.org/W2079976834","https://openalex.org/W2082028818","https://openalex.org/W2093206764","https://openalex.org/W2099726211","https://openalex.org/W2104814418","https://openalex.org/W2131791459","https://openalex.org/W2137342261","https://openalex.org/W2141992314","https://openalex.org/W2141994409","https://openalex.org/W2167618408","https://openalex.org/W2172955918","https://openalex.org/W2178345549","https://openalex.org/W2189821821","https://openalex.org/W2252835677","https://openalex.org/W2285182447","https://openalex.org/W2288977275","https://openalex.org/W2309889062","https://openalex.org/W2316966207","https://openalex.org/W2325207187","https://openalex.org/W2327761421","https://openalex.org/W2333500545","https://openalex.org/W2399733322","https://openalex.org/W2465923830","https://openalex.org/W2900427560","https://openalex.org/W3122117522","https://openalex.org/W3122343733","https://openalex.org/W3122927466","https://openalex.org/W3125226067","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4302853952"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7101191279","https://openalex.org/W1603448854","https://openalex.org/W1458656454","https://openalex.org/W1984255068","https://openalex.org/W2064226165","https://openalex.org/W4403668646","https://openalex.org/W2922050013","https://openalex.org/W1540813516","https://openalex.org/W1969713282","https://openalex.org/W3035929200"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Six":[1],"Poisson":[2,31],"autoregressive":[3],"models":[4,86],"of":[5,11,33,83,92,109],"order":[6],"p":[7,9,45],"[PAR(":[8],")]":[10],"daily":[12,85],"wildland":[13,69],"arson":[14,35,52],"ignition":[15,53],"counts":[16,36],"are":[17],"estimated":[18,38],"for":[19,39],"five":[20],"locations":[21],"in":[22,60,98],"Florida":[23,41],"(1994\u20132001).":[24],"In":[25],"addition,":[26],"a":[27],"fixed":[28,77],"effects":[29,78],"time\u2010series":[30],"model":[32,47,79,108],"annual":[34,76],"is":[37],"all":[40],"counties":[42],"(1995\u20132001).":[43],"PAR(":[44],")":[46],"estimates":[48],"reveal":[49],"highly":[50],"significant":[51],"autocorrelation,":[54],"lasting":[55],"up":[56],"to":[57,62,66],"eleven":[58],"days,":[59],"addition":[61],"seasonality":[63],"and":[64,73,94],"links":[65],"law":[67],"enforcement,":[68],"management,":[70],"historical":[71],"fire,":[72],"weather.":[74],"The":[75],"replicates":[80],"many":[81],"findings":[82,104],"the":[84,90],"but":[87],"also":[88],"detects":[89],"influence":[91],"wages":[93],"poverty":[95],"on":[96],"arson,":[97],"ways":[99],"expected":[100],"from":[101],"theory.":[102],"All":[103],"support":[105],"an":[106],"economic":[107],"crime.":[110]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":10}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
