{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2094090073","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00001888-199907000-00012","title":"Heuristics and biases","display_name":"Heuristics and biases","publication_year":1999,"publication_date":"1999-07-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2094090073","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00001888-199907000-00012","mag":"2094090073","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10429587"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1097/00001888-199907000-00012","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00001888-199907000-00012","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00001888-199907000-00012","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S19793444","display_name":"Academic Medicine","issn_l":"1040-2446","issn":["1040-2446","1938-808X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315671","host_organization_name":"Lippincott Williams & Wilkins","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315671","https://openalex.org/P4310318547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Lippincott Williams & Wilkins","Wolters Kluwer"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Academic Medicine","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057529181","display_name":"A S Elstein","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I39422238","display_name":"University of Illinois Chicago","ror":"https://ror.org/02mpq6x41","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39422238"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"A S Elstein","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Medical Education, University of Illinois College of Medicine at Chicago 60612-7309, USA. aelstein@uic.edu","Completed Date: 26 August 1999","Created Date: 26 August 1999","Revised Date: 01 November 2002"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medical Education, University of Illinois College of Medicine at Chicago 60612-7309, USA. aelstein@uic.edu","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39422238"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Completed Date: 26 August 1999","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Created Date: 26 August 1999","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Revised Date: 01 November 2002","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5057529181"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39422238"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":6.7671,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":295,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96577017,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"74","issue":"7","first_page":"791","last_page":"4"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12574","display_name":"Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2714","display_name":"Family Practice"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12574","display_name":"Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2714","display_name":"Family Practice"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11744","display_name":"Health Sciences Research and Education","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3600","display_name":"General Health Professions"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heuristics-and-biases","display_name":"heuristics and biases","score":0.9800000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/clinical-judgment","display_name":"clinical judgment","score":0.8450000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/clinical-decision-making","display_name":"clinical decision-making","score":0.9010000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/diagnostic-uncertainty","display_name":"diagnostic uncertainty","score":0.6460000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayes-theorem","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","score":0.8840000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-decision-theory","display_name":"statistical decision theory","score":0.9190000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expected-value","display_name":"expected value","score":0.6629999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-updating","display_name":"Bayesian updating","score":0.45399999618530273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/treatment-decision-making","display_name":"treatment decision-making","score":0.5040000081062317}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127705205","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5748245","display_name":"Heuristics","level":2,"score":0.7226510643959045},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44725695","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q288156","display_name":"Normative","level":2,"score":0.7119451761245728},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207201462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182505","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","level":3,"score":0.6911354660987854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28901747","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177571","display_name":"Decision theory","level":2,"score":0.5257932543754578},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020452639","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q454812","display_name":"Clinical judgment","level":2,"score":0.4705508053302765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.4644164443016052},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189216375","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127759","display_name":"Cognitive bias","level":3,"score":0.4276728630065918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123676819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1074338","display_name":"Perfect information","level":2,"score":0.4247295558452606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169900460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2200417","display_name":"Cognition","level":2,"score":0.413917601108551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.38678720593452454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3648054003715515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.34872984886169434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.3031095862388611},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.2949601411819458},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.21552062034606934},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.16997897624969482},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.1555253267288208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19527891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1120908","display_name":"Medical physics","level":1,"score":0.1445428729057312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118552586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7867","display_name":"Psychiatry","level":1,"score":0.14382898807525635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.10404384136199951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002755","descriptor_name":"Choice Behavior","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003071","descriptor_name":"Cognition","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003657","descriptor_name":"Decision Making","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003661","descriptor_name":"Decision Support Techniques","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003662","descriptor_name":"Decision Theory","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003933","descriptor_name":"Diagnosis","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007600","descriptor_name":"Judgment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011939","descriptor_name":"Mental Recall","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012307","descriptor_name":"Risk Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D013812","descriptor_name":"Therapeutics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016896","descriptor_name":"Treatment Outcome","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1097/00001888-199907000-00012","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00001888-199907000-00012","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00001888-199907000-00012","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S19793444","display_name":"Academic Medicine","issn_l":"1040-2446","issn":["1040-2446","1938-808X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315671","host_organization_name":"Lippincott Williams & Wilkins","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315671","https://openalex.org/P4310318547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Lippincott Williams & Wilkins","Wolters Kluwer"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Academic Medicine","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:10429587","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10429587","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges","raw_type":"Comparative Study"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.5683000087738037}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1502515335","https://openalex.org/W2899819237","https://openalex.org/W1987860773","https://openalex.org/W2512075987","https://openalex.org/W7081636067","https://openalex.org/W7100511100","https://openalex.org/W3037335423","https://openalex.org/W1973221849","https://openalex.org/W4236518061","https://openalex.org/W4244129622"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Many":[0],"clinical":[1,59,71,144],"decisions":[2,74,116],"are":[3,113,149],"made":[4,119],"in":[5,143],"uncertainty.":[6],"When":[7],"the":[8,12,24,29,40,56,64,76,87,103,150],"diagnosis":[9,18,25,30,109],"is":[10,14,31,42,67,91,102],"uncertain,":[11,47],"goal":[13],"to":[15,20,68,97,122,136],"establish":[16],"a":[17,49,108],"or":[19,36],"treat":[21],"even":[22],"if":[23],"remains":[26],"unknown.":[27],"If":[28],"known":[32],"(e.g.,":[33],"breast":[34],"cancer":[35],"prostate":[37],"cancer)":[38],"but":[39],"treatment":[41],"risky":[43],"and":[44,61,73,131,138,147],"its":[45],"outcome":[46],"still":[48],"choice":[50],"must":[51],"be":[52,118],"made.":[53],"In":[54,84],"researching":[55],"psychology":[57],"of":[58,89],"judgment":[60],"decision":[62,82,134],"making,":[63],"major":[65],"strategy":[66],"compare":[69],"observed":[70],"judgments":[72],"with":[75],"normative":[77],"model":[78],"established":[79],"by":[80],"statistical":[81],"theory.":[83],"this":[85],"framework,":[86],"process":[88],"diagnosing":[90],"conceptualized":[92],"as":[93,110,121],"using":[94],"imperfect":[95],"information":[96],"revise":[98],"opinions;":[99],"Bayes'":[100,129],"theorem":[101,130],"formal":[104],"rule":[105],"for":[106],"updating":[107],"new":[111],"data":[112],"available.":[114],"Treatment":[115],"should":[117],"so":[120],"maximize":[123],"expected":[124],"value.":[125],"This":[126],"essay":[127],"uses":[128],"concepts":[132],"from":[133],"theory":[135],"describe":[137],"explain":[139],"some":[140],"well-documented":[141],"errors":[142],"reasoning.":[145],"Heuristics":[146],"biases":[148],"cognitive":[151],"factors":[152],"that":[153],"produce":[154],"these":[155],"errors.":[156]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":19},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":23},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":19},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":14}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}