{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2085161972","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.943","title":"Long\u2010term sales forecasting using holt\u2013winters and neural network methods","display_name":"Long\u2010term sales forecasting using holt\u2013winters and neural network methods","publication_year":2005,"publication_date":"2005-08-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2085161972","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.943","mag":"2085161972"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/for.943","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.943","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.943","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S122161766","display_name":"Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0277-6693","issn":["0277-6693","1099-131X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1587451","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5013340740","display_name":"Apostolos Kotsialos","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2237-329X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2237-329X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55741626","display_name":"Technical University of Crete","ror":"https://ror.org/03f8bz564","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55741626"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Apostolos Kotsialos","raw_affiliation_strings":["Technical University of Crete, Greece"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Technical University of Crete, Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55741626"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071405020","display_name":"Markos Papageorgiou","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5821-4982","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5821-4982"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55741626","display_name":"Technical University of Crete","ror":"https://ror.org/03f8bz564","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55741626"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Markos Papageorgiou","raw_affiliation_strings":["Technical University of Crete, Greece"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Technical University of Crete, Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55741626"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020198845","display_name":"Antonios Poulimenos","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55741626","display_name":"Technical University of Crete","ror":"https://ror.org/03f8bz564","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55741626"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Antonios Poulimenos","raw_affiliation_strings":["Technical University of Crete, Greece"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Technical University of Crete, Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55741626"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5071405020"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55741626"],"apc_list":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.1626,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":33,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91107392,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"24","issue":"5","first_page":"353","last_page":"368"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10320","display_name":"Neural Networks and Applications","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/holt-winters-exponential-smoothing","display_name":"Holt-Winters exponential smoothing","score":0.9169999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/new-product-launch","display_name":"new product launch","score":0.6000000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/product-withdrawal","display_name":"product withdrawal","score":0.8330000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecasting-accuracy-comparison","display_name":"forecast accuracy comparison","score":0.34200000762939453}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2984642479","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7404320","display_name":"Sales forecasting","level":2,"score":0.7487613558769226},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.7190666198730469},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.7065243124961853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6400331258773804},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165838908","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q736777","display_name":"Calibration","level":2,"score":0.5913432836532593},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154775046","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188","display_name":"German","level":2,"score":0.5685063600540161},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5610767006874084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47702885","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5441227","display_name":"Feedforward neural network","level":3,"score":0.43620428442955017},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.4000222086906433},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.26385271549224854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.26057738065719604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.17038220167160034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.14060300588607788},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95457728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q309","display_name":"History","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1002/for.943","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.943","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.943","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S122161766","display_name":"Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0277-6693","issn":["0277-6693","1099-131X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:dro.dur.ac.uk.OAI2:277","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://dro.dur.ac.uk/277/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400188","display_name":"Durham Research Online (Durham University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I190082696","host_organization_name":"Durham University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190082696"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of forecasting, 2005, Vol.24(5), pp.353-368 [Peer Reviewed Journal]","raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:jof:jforec:v:24:y:2005:i:5:p:353-368","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.943","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:durham-repository.worktribe.com:1587451","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1587451","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400188","display_name":"Durham Research Online (Durham University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I190082696","host_organization_name":"Durham University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190082696"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/:1587451","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1587451","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400188","display_name":"Durham Research Online (Durham University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I190082696","host_organization_name":"Durham University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190082696"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/:1587451","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1587451","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400188","display_name":"Durham Research Online (Durham University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I190082696","host_organization_name":"Durham University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190082696"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Journal Article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","display_name":"European Commission","ror":"https://ror.org/00k4n6c32"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322644","display_name":"University of Crete","ror":"https://ror.org/00dr28g20"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":15,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W197787652","https://openalex.org/W1583404565","https://openalex.org/W1854215996","https://openalex.org/W2034159772","https://openalex.org/W2060035227","https://openalex.org/W2084175761","https://openalex.org/W2088897322","https://openalex.org/W2104893957","https://openalex.org/W2113021507","https://openalex.org/W2122671960","https://openalex.org/W2124290836","https://openalex.org/W2149921893","https://openalex.org/W2152757781","https://openalex.org/W2154326182","https://openalex.org/W4302441299"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1967560258","https://openalex.org/W1985333631","https://openalex.org/W3198925878","https://openalex.org/W1989171647","https://openalex.org/W2050527683","https://openalex.org/W2363329010","https://openalex.org/W2152148559","https://openalex.org/W2036000973","https://openalex.org/W4292826500","https://openalex.org/W2121434290"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"The":[1,72],"problem":[2,73],"of":[3,12,22,40,49,54,69,79],"medium":[4],"to":[5,33,42,93],"long\u2010term":[6],"sales":[7,61,94],"forecasting":[8,25,30],"raises":[9],"a":[10,37,80],"number":[11,39],"requirements":[13],"that":[14],"must":[15],"be":[16,43],"suitably":[17],"addressed":[18],"in":[19],"the":[20,23,47],"design":[21],"employed":[24],"methods.":[26],"These":[27],"include":[28],"long":[29],"horizons":[31],"(up":[32],"52":[34],"periods":[35],"ahead),":[36],"high":[38],"quantities":[41],"forecasted,":[44],"which":[45,58],"limits":[46],"possibility":[48],"human":[50],"intervention,":[51],"frequent":[52],"introduction":[53],"new":[55],"articles":[56],"(for":[57],"no":[59],"past":[60],"are":[62],"available":[63],"for":[64],"parameter":[65],"calibration)":[66],"and":[67],"withdrawal":[68],"running":[70],"articles.":[71],"has":[74],"been":[75],"tackled":[76],"by":[77],"use":[78],"damped\u2010trend":[81],"Holt\u2013Winters":[82],"method":[83],"as":[84,86],"well":[85],"feedforward":[87],"multilayer":[88],"neural":[89],"networks":[90],"(FMNNs)":[91],"applied":[92],"data":[95],"from":[96],"two":[97],"German":[98],"companies.":[99],"Copyright":[100],"\u00a9":[101],"2005":[102],"John":[103],"Wiley":[104],"&":[105],"Sons,":[106],"Ltd.":[107]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}