{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2084520173","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0024","title":"A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics","display_name":"A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics","publication_year":2015,"publication_date":"2015-04-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2084520173","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0024","mag":"2084520173","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25833244","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/4424677"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1098/rsif.2015.0024","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0024","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0024","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S129150467","display_name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","issn_l":"1742-5662","issn":["1742-5662","1742-5689"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319787","host_organization_name":"Royal Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319787"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Royal Society"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","datacite","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4424677/","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027984967","display_name":"Karsten Hempel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3273-4247","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3273-4247"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98251732","display_name":"McMaster University","ror":"https://ror.org/02fa3aq29","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98251732"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Karsten Hempel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98251732"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077626949","display_name":"David J. D. Earn","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7562-1341","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7562-1341"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98251732","display_name":"McMaster University","ror":"https://ror.org/02fa3aq29","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98251732"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David J. D. Earn","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1","David J. D. Earn    Google Scholar  Find this author on PubMed"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98251732"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"David J. D. Earn    Google Scholar  Find this author on PubMed","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98251732"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.6061,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":21,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.79091958,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":87,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"12","issue":"106","first_page":"20150024","last_page":"20150024"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/measles","display_name":"measles","score":0.9670000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dynamical-transition","display_name":"dynamical transition","score":0.8080000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sir-model","display_name":"SIR model","score":0.8949999809265137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/attractors","display_name":"attractors","score":0.9010000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transients","display_name":"transients","score":0.9629999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/new-york-city","display_name":"New York City","score":0.8019999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/historical-epidemiology","display_name":"historical epidemiology","score":0.3440000116825104}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776438120","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q79793","display_name":"Measles","level":3,"score":0.7746822834014893},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C164380108","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q507187","display_name":"Attractor","level":2,"score":0.6137645244598389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.5130432844161987},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.46902740001678467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145912823","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q113558","display_name":"Dynamics (music)","level":2,"score":0.4531323313713074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778199166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q573943","display_name":"Measles virus","level":4,"score":0.45069628953933716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121864883","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q677916","display_name":"Statistical physics","level":1,"score":0.39020782709121704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.35121023654937744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.3367910087108612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3272641897201538},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.3021853566169739},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.2926541268825531},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.13663703203201294},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.11014297604560852},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24890656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82811","display_name":"Acoustics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22070199","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192995","display_name":"Vaccination","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000293","descriptor_name":"Adolescent","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000328","descriptor_name":"Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000369","descriptor_name":"Aged, 80 and over","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002648","descriptor_name":"Child","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002675","descriptor_name":"Child, Preschool","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000517","qualifier_name":"prevention & control","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007223","descriptor_name":"Infant","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007231","descriptor_name":"Infant, Newborn","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008457","descriptor_name":"Measles","qualifier_ui":"Q000401","qualifier_name":"mortality","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008457","descriptor_name":"Measles","qualifier_ui":"Q000517","qualifier_name":"prevention & control","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008458","descriptor_name":"Measles Vaccine","qualifier_ui":"Q000627","qualifier_name":"therapeutic use","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008875","descriptor_name":"Middle Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D009519","descriptor_name":"New York City","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012621","descriptor_name":"Seasons","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015996","descriptor_name":"Survival Rate","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019353","descriptor_name":"Endemic Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000517","qualifier_name":"prevention & control","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019353","descriptor_name":"Endemic Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D032541","descriptor_name":"Mass Vaccination","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D032541","descriptor_name":"Mass Vaccination","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D055815","descriptor_name":"Young Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1098/rsif.2015.0024","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0024","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0024","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S129150467","display_name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","issn_l":"1742-5662","issn":["1742-5662","1742-5689"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319787","host_organization_name":"Royal Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319787"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Royal Society"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:25833244","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25833244","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Royal Society, Interface","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:4424677","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4424677/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"J R Soc Interface","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:macsphere.mcmaster.ca:11375/12641","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/11375/12641","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402139","display_name":"MacSphere (McMaster University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I98251732","host_organization_name":"McMaster University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98251732"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"thesis"},{"id":"doi:10.71548/15225","doi":"https://doi.org/10.71548/15225","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.71548/15225","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402139","display_name":"MacSphere (McMaster University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I98251732","host_organization_name":"McMaster University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98251732"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Other"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:4424677","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4424677/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"J R Soc Interface","raw_type":"Text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.5683000087738037,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":50,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W645504470","https://openalex.org/W1490165924","https://openalex.org/W1544024241","https://openalex.org/W1606697907","https://openalex.org/W1902216375","https://openalex.org/W1969789063","https://openalex.org/W1975708886","https://openalex.org/W1978043817","https://openalex.org/W1988507461","https://openalex.org/W1992366144","https://openalex.org/W2004561367","https://openalex.org/W2008632949","https://openalex.org/W2012620166","https://openalex.org/W2017630658","https://openalex.org/W2029878680","https://openalex.org/W2034139177","https://openalex.org/W2035303254","https://openalex.org/W2036120033","https://openalex.org/W2037538587","https://openalex.org/W2044415172","https://openalex.org/W2050143329","https://openalex.org/W2068303714","https://openalex.org/W2099759919","https://openalex.org/W2107283134","https://openalex.org/W2107578451","https://openalex.org/W2109224138","https://openalex.org/W2112680994","https://openalex.org/W2113728203","https://openalex.org/W2116908940","https://openalex.org/W2116944637","https://openalex.org/W2122788050","https://openalex.org/W2126062496","https://openalex.org/W2129424730","https://openalex.org/W2130821986","https://openalex.org/W2137863132","https://openalex.org/W2146143892","https://openalex.org/W2146547352","https://openalex.org/W2148301044","https://openalex.org/W2150437808","https://openalex.org/W2161728228","https://openalex.org/W2162136094","https://openalex.org/W2168437147","https://openalex.org/W2321622596","https://openalex.org/W2341332379","https://openalex.org/W2607798796","https://openalex.org/W2797841405","https://openalex.org/W3087512938","https://openalex.org/W4211029243","https://openalex.org/W4235527302","https://openalex.org/W4388299012"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2150437808","https://openalex.org/W1968344341","https://openalex.org/W2012620166","https://openalex.org/W2109224138","https://openalex.org/W2152697511","https://openalex.org/W7221116931","https://openalex.org/W1979053264","https://openalex.org/W7221149391","https://openalex.org/W1550151555","https://openalex.org/W7095124838"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Infectious":[0],"diseases":[1],"spreading":[2],"in":[3,11,22,59],"a":[4,40],"human":[5],"population":[6],"occasionally":[7],"exhibit":[8],"sudden":[9],"transitions":[10,21,58],"their":[12],"qualitative":[13],"dynamics.":[14],"Previous":[15],"work":[16,37],"has":[17],"successfully":[18,64],"predicted":[19],"such":[20],"New":[23],"York":[24],"City's":[25],"historical":[26],"measles":[27],"incidence":[28],"using":[29],"the":[30,60,73],"seasonally":[31],"forced":[32],"susceptible-infectious-recovered":[33],"(SIR)":[34],"model.":[35,77],"This":[36],"relied":[38],"on":[39],"dataset":[41,62],"spanning":[42],"45":[43],"years":[44,52],"(1928-1973),":[45],"which":[46],"we":[47],"have":[48],"extended":[49],"to":[50],"93":[51],"(1891-1984).":[53],"We":[54],"identify":[55],"additional":[56],"dynamical":[57],"longer":[61],"and":[63,70],"explain":[65],"them":[66],"by":[67],"analysing":[68],"attractors":[69],"transients":[71],"of":[72],"same":[74],"mechanistic":[75],"epidemiological":[76]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}