{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2080592255","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","title":"Modelling creative destruction: Technological diffusion and industrial structure change to 2050","display_name":"Modelling creative destruction: Technological diffusion and industrial structure change to 2050","publication_year":2006,"publication_date":"2006-07-04","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2080592255","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","mag":"2080592255"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39307421","display_name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","issn_l":"0040-1625","issn":["0040-1625","1873-5509"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-2","jufo-3","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021105642","display_name":"Paul M. Dewick","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1176-2292","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1176-2292"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","display_name":"University of Manchester","ror":"https://ror.org/027m9bs27","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Paul Dewick","raw_affiliation_strings":["Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M15 9JL, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M15 9JL, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5007847836","display_name":"Ken Green","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7697-8377","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7697-8377"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","display_name":"University of Manchester","ror":"https://ror.org/027m9bs27","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ken Green","raw_affiliation_strings":["Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M15 9JL, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M15 9JL, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087375330","display_name":"Toby Fleetwood","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","display_name":"University of Manchester","ror":"https://ror.org/027m9bs27","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Toby Fleetwood","raw_affiliation_strings":["Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M15 9JL, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M15 9JL, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074259621","display_name":"Marcela Miozzo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5978-9953","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5978-9953"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","display_name":"University of Manchester","ror":"https://ror.org/027m9bs27","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marcela Miozzo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M15 9JL, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M15 9JL, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5021105642"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"],"apc_list":{"value":3490,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3490},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.8737,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":28,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8458897,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"73","issue":"9","first_page":"1084","last_page":"1106"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12659","display_name":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","score":0.6371999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12659","display_name":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","score":0.6371999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13498","display_name":"Economic Development and Digital Transformation","score":0.2883000075817108,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10393","display_name":"Economic Growth and Productivity","score":0.04360000044107437,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/creative-destruction","display_name":"creative destruction","score":0.9769999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/technology-diffusion","display_name":"technology diffusion","score":0.9890000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/industrial-structure-transformation","display_name":"industrial structure change","score":0.9679999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biotechnology","display_name":"biotechnology","score":0.7059999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nanotechnology","display_name":"nanotechnology","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pervasive-technologies","display_name":"pervasive technologies","score":0.7720000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disruptive-technologies","display_name":"disruptive technologies","score":0.7519999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/industry-dynamics","display_name":"industrial dynamics","score":0.7710000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/structural-change","display_name":"structural change","score":0.6769999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expert-interviews","display_name":"expert interviews","score":0.33500000834465027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/location-of-production","display_name":"location of production","score":0.6269999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/energy-demand","display_name":"energy demand","score":0.8539999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-growth","display_name":"economic growth","score":0.8460000157356262}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137996800","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q762702","display_name":"Technological change","level":2,"score":0.6446835398674011},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191935318","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q148","display_name":"China","level":2,"score":0.6046234965324402},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26271046","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q187097","display_name":"Economic geography","level":1,"score":0.573735773563385},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C40700","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1411783","display_name":"Industrial organization","level":1,"score":0.48545628786087036},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C82753439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1419090","display_name":"Industrial production","level":2,"score":0.44862252473831177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207267971","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q120208","display_name":"Emerging technologies","level":2,"score":0.43770191073417664},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778348673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q739302","display_name":"Production (economics)","level":2,"score":0.43619513511657715},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4230634272098541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.3963777720928192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74363100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273005","display_name":"Economic system","level":1,"score":0.3421977162361145},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175605778","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3299701","display_name":"Natural resource economics","level":1,"score":0.32102376222610474},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.18226170539855957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.14499589800834656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.09462231397628784},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39307421","display_name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","issn_l":"0040-1625","issn":["0040-1625","1873-5509"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-2","jufo-3","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.atira.dk:openaire_cris_publications/613432ae-2ea0-4ca0-94a2-4151ab1828be","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/613432ae-2ea0-4ca0-94a2-4151ab1828be","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400662","display_name":"Research Explorer (The University of Manchester)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","host_organization_name":"University of Manchester","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Dewick, P, Green, K, Fleetwood, T & Miozzo, M 2006, 'Modelling creative destruction: Technological diffusion and industrial structure change to 2050', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 73, no. 9, pp. 1084-1106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:kclpure.kcl.ac.uk:publications/8a6a4c04-506a-4b4b-bc17-156369a9f8c3","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/8a6a4c04-506a-4b4b-bc17-156369a9f8c3","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400216","display_name":"Research Portal (King's College London)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I183935753","host_organization_name":"King's College London","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I183935753"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Dewick, P, Green, K, Fleetwood, T & Miozzo, M 2006, 'Modelling creative destruction: Technological diffusion and industrial structure change to 2050', TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol. 73, no. 9, pp. 1084-1106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.002","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":1.0,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure"},{"score":0.48510000109672546,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":49,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W51112181","https://openalex.org/W110716739","https://openalex.org/W138924259","https://openalex.org/W266848492","https://openalex.org/W432183840","https://openalex.org/W595995651","https://openalex.org/W1524264467","https://openalex.org/W1551036771","https://openalex.org/W1572765343","https://openalex.org/W1604285157","https://openalex.org/W1964394640","https://openalex.org/W1967472631","https://openalex.org/W1967794536","https://openalex.org/W1968305416","https://openalex.org/W1972341061","https://openalex.org/W1984697813","https://openalex.org/W1987319415","https://openalex.org/W1990360714","https://openalex.org/W2001558719","https://openalex.org/W2001835026","https://openalex.org/W2009884847","https://openalex.org/W2035135306","https://openalex.org/W2044575058","https://openalex.org/W2047909414","https://openalex.org/W2048342523","https://openalex.org/W2063833516","https://openalex.org/W2080641043","https://openalex.org/W2081196374","https://openalex.org/W2087162487","https://openalex.org/W2094370425","https://openalex.org/W2116719293","https://openalex.org/W2137358449","https://openalex.org/W2167912036","https://openalex.org/W2325808677","https://openalex.org/W2332018227","https://openalex.org/W2335053430","https://openalex.org/W2613331969","https://openalex.org/W2746454871","https://openalex.org/W2767279390","https://openalex.org/W2789990572","https://openalex.org/W2801441627","https://openalex.org/W3022647374","https://openalex.org/W3122116504","https://openalex.org/W3199136796","https://openalex.org/W4205345435","https://openalex.org/W4241742455","https://openalex.org/W4292095080","https://openalex.org/W4299848753","https://openalex.org/W4312419427"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2117333460","https://openalex.org/W2087162487","https://openalex.org/W3122034246","https://openalex.org/W2589163185","https://openalex.org/W2310088365","https://openalex.org/W2029511201","https://openalex.org/W7099721228","https://openalex.org/W4403680435","https://openalex.org/W1980628641","https://openalex.org/W200130605"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}