{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2076733394","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(98)00136-0","title":"Forecasting the future: pitfalls in controlling for uncertainty","display_name":"Forecasting the future: pitfalls in controlling for uncertainty","publication_year":1999,"publication_date":"1999-04-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2076733394","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(98)00136-0","mag":"2076733394"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/s0016-3287(98)00136-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(98)00136-0","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(98)00136-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S130638383","display_name":"Futures","issn_l":"0016-3287","issn":["0016-3287","1873-6378"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Futures","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046583948","display_name":"Sverre Strand","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I3131789811","display_name":"Institute of Transport Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/04p2pa451","country_code":"NO","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I3131789811"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sverre Strand","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Transport Economics, PO Box 6110, Etterstad, 0602 Oslo, Norway"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Transport Economics, PO Box 6110, Etterstad, 0602 Oslo, Norway","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3131789811"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5046583948"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3131789811"],"apc_list":{"value":2370,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2370},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.1735,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":25,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94139745,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"31","issue":"3-4","first_page":"333","last_page":"350"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9976000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9976000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14345","display_name":"Scientific Research and Philosophical Inquiry","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1405","display_name":"Management of Technology and Innovation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12659","display_name":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","score":0.00039999998989515007,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecasting","display_name":"forecasting","score":0.7059999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty","display_name":"uncertainty","score":0.968999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-misspecification","display_name":"model misspecification","score":0.7910000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/correlation-and-causation","display_name":"correlation versus causation","score":0.8080000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/air-traffic-forecasting","display_name":"air traffic forecasting","score":0.8230000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction","display_name":"prediction","score":0.5220000147819519}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64357122","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1149766","display_name":"Causality (physics)","level":2,"score":0.7188701033592224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33676613","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13415176","display_name":"Dimension (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.6997325420379639},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.611325740814209},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5734493732452393},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.42109447717666626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.4154793620109558},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.37908944487571716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.22089439630508423},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.19134214520454407},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.13381651043891907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.06696394085884094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.06374332308769226},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C202444582","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837863","display_name":"Pure mathematics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/s0016-3287(98)00136-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(98)00136-0","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(98)00136-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S130638383","display_name":"Futures","issn_l":"0016-3287","issn":["0016-3287","1873-6378"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Futures","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":19,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W160735039","https://openalex.org/W405539932","https://openalex.org/W630089419","https://openalex.org/W1492068705","https://openalex.org/W1533967694","https://openalex.org/W1981388751","https://openalex.org/W1981723326","https://openalex.org/W1991544120","https://openalex.org/W1992943550","https://openalex.org/W1996445562","https://openalex.org/W1999134179","https://openalex.org/W2029426636","https://openalex.org/W2053589036","https://openalex.org/W2074088588","https://openalex.org/W2149316942","https://openalex.org/W2313778154","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W6603439898","https://openalex.org/W6724869118"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1991554452","https://openalex.org/W6903932532","https://openalex.org/W2021596854","https://openalex.org/W7111519367","https://openalex.org/W2138336715","https://openalex.org/W4243635117","https://openalex.org/W1998213965","https://openalex.org/W3109728977","https://openalex.org/W7005357512","https://openalex.org/W2115317042"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}