{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2076685922","doi":null,"title":"Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote","display_name":"Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote","publication_year":2014,"publication_date":"2014-01-15","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2076685922","mag":"2076685922"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.720.3065","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.720.3065","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"https://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/files/?fileID%3D6800%26whdmsaction%3Dpublic%3Amain.file","raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2379280_code908446.pdf?abstractid=2246259&mirid=1","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003968744","display_name":"Andreas Graefe","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6406-8811","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6406-8811"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210127724","display_name":"Hochschule Macromedia","ror":"https://ror.org/03czk8k96","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210127724"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andreas Graefe","raw_affiliation_strings":["Macromedia University of Applied Sciences"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6406-8811","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Macromedia University of Applied Sciences","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210127724"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036713900","display_name":"J. Scott Armstrong","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0108-0471","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0108-0471"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","display_name":"University of Pennsylvania","ror":"https://ror.org/00b30xv10","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J. Scott Armstrong","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0108-0471","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012415053","display_name":"Randall J. Jones","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I139325414","display_name":"University of Central Oklahoma","ror":"https://ror.org/02n455404","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I139325414"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Randall J. Jones","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Central Oklahoma*"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Central Oklahoma*","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I139325414"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087905376","display_name":"Alfred G. Cuz\u00e1n","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-1390","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-1390"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I83683471","display_name":"University of West Florida","ror":"https://ror.org/002w4zy91","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I83683471"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alfred G. Cuz\u00e1n","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of West florida"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-1390","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of West florida","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I83683471"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.1557,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":4,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.79752027,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.899399995803833,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.899399995803833,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.04820000007748604,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":0.03700000047683716,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2012-u-s-presidential-election","display_name":"2012 presidential election","score":0.8579999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/election-forecasting","display_name":"election forecasting","score":0.878000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-combination","display_name":"forecast combination","score":0.7960000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.718999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/polling","display_name":"polling","score":0.5350000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-markets","display_name":"prediction markets","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expert-opinion","display_name":"expert opinion","score":0.925000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantitative-model","display_name":"quantitative model","score":0.5120000243186951}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776129789","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q858439","display_name":"Presidential election","level":3,"score":0.7432458996772766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197487636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49892","display_name":"Presidential system","level":3,"score":0.605618417263031},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.5218250155448914},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.5181859135627747},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5134490728378296},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120954023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127277","display_name":"Consensus forecast","level":2,"score":0.5069854259490967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.38202977180480957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.34255242347717285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.32487723231315613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.3058781325817108},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175444787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39072","display_name":"Microeconomics","level":1,"score":0.08716273307800293},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.05745270848274231},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.720.3065","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.720.3065","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"https://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/files/?fileID%3D6800%26whdmsaction%3Dpublic%3Amain.file","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:2076685922","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2379280_code908446.pdf?abstractid=2246259&mirid=1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"mag:2076685922","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2379280_code908446.pdf?abstractid=2246259&mirid=1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","raw_type":null},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":9,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1995866611","https://openalex.org/W2008534646","https://openalex.org/W2009534784","https://openalex.org/W2040165788","https://openalex.org/W2082865575","https://openalex.org/W2104673937","https://openalex.org/W2313711493","https://openalex.org/W2319803923","https://openalex.org/W3125956520"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3121777545","https://openalex.org/W7096178623","https://openalex.org/W7095272127","https://openalex.org/W225306484","https://openalex.org/W2143431835","https://openalex.org/W7098173084","https://openalex.org/W7098605466","https://openalex.org/W2340628691","https://openalex.org/W1530122641","https://openalex.org/W2773797142"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"review":[1],"the":[2,5,22,28,34,37,51,63,68,84,97,117,141,155,171],"performance":[3],"of":[4,45,83,93,116,127],"PollyVote,":[6],"which":[7],"combined":[8,94],"forecasts":[9,52,95],"from":[10,53],"polls,":[11],"prediction":[12],"markets,":[13],"experts":[14,124],"\u2019":[15,125],"judgment,":[16],"and":[17,133,143,170],"quantitative":[18],"models,":[19],"for":[20,96],"forecasting":[21],"two-party":[23],"popular":[24,146],"vote":[25,165],"shares":[26],"in":[27,56,62,140],"2012":[29,98],"U.S.":[30],"Presidential":[31,99],"Elections.":[32],"Throughout":[33],"election":[35,69],"year,":[36],"PollyVote":[38,102],"provided":[39],"highly":[40],"accurate":[41,90],"forecasts,":[42],"outperforming":[43],"each":[44],"its":[46],"components":[47],"as":[48,50,167],"well":[49],"FiveThirtyEight.com.":[54],"Gains":[55],"accuracy":[57],"were":[58,136],"particularly":[59],"large":[60],"early":[61],"campaign,":[64],"when":[65],"uncertainty":[66],"about":[67,161],"outcome":[70],"is":[71,81,120],"high.":[72],"The":[73,101],"results":[74],"confirm":[75],"prior":[76],"research":[77],"showing":[78],"that":[79,158],"combining":[80],"one":[82],"most":[85],"effective":[86],"approaches":[87,119],"to":[88,111,121,164],"generating":[89],"forecasts.":[91],"Accuracy":[92],"Elections:":[100],"Since":[103],"there":[104],"have":[105,109],"been":[106],"elections,":[107],"people":[108],"tried":[110],"predict":[112],"their":[113,162],"results.":[114],"One":[115],"oldest":[118],"rely":[122],"on":[123],"expectations":[126],"who":[128],"will":[129],"win.":[130],"Expert":[131],"surveys":[132],"betting":[134],"markets":[135],"regularly":[137],"conducted":[138],"already":[139],"1800s,":[142],"are":[144],"still":[145],"today":[147],"(Erikson":[148],"&":[149],"Wlezien,":[150],"2013;":[151],"Kernell,":[152],"2000).":[153],"In":[154],"1930s,":[156],"polls":[157],"ask":[159],"respondents":[160],"intention":[163],"arose":[166],"another":[168],"alternative":[169]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
