{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2076200366","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01294","title":"Ecological niche models of mammalian glacial refugia show consistent bias","display_name":"Ecological niche models of mammalian glacial refugia show consistent bias","publication_year":2014,"publication_date":"2014-10-20","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2076200366","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01294","mag":"2076200366"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/ecog.01294","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01294","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01294","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S25093289","display_name":"Ecography","issn_l":"0906-7590","issn":["0906-7590","1600-0587"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","norway-2","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Ecography","raw_type":"journal-article"},"parent_works":[],"lineage":["https://openalex.org/W2076200366"],"child_works_count":0,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077626098","display_name":"Edward Davis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0918-5852","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0918-5852"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I181233156","display_name":"University of Oregon","ror":"https://ror.org/0293rh119","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I181233156"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Edward Byrd Davis","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dept of Geological Sciences Univ. of Oregon Eugene OR 97403 USA","Museum of Natural and Cultural History, Univ. of Oregon Eugene OR 97403 USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dept of Geological Sciences Univ. of Oregon Eugene OR 97403 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181233156"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Museum of Natural and Cultural History, Univ. of Oregon Eugene OR 97403 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181233156"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5055208667","display_name":"Jenny L. McGuire","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0663-6902","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0663-6902"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I201448701","display_name":"University of Washington","ror":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I201448701"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jenny L. McGuire","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Univ. of Washington; Seattle WA 98195-2100 USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Univ. of Washington; Seattle WA 98195-2100 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I201448701"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031421794","display_name":"John D. Orcutt","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5066-7159","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5066-7159"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I145220665","display_name":"Cornell College","ror":"https://ror.org/01wvxpc32","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I145220665"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"John D. Orcutt","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dept of Geology Cornell College Mt Vernon IA 52314 USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dept of Geology Cornell College Mt Vernon IA 52314 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I145220665"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3190,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3190},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.8237,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":58,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.83116883,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"37","issue":"11","first_page":"1133","last_page":"1138"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10895","display_name":"Species Distribution and Climate Change","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2302","display_name":"Ecological Modeling"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10895","display_name":"Species Distribution and Climate Change","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2302","display_name":"Ecological Modeling"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10012","display_name":"Genetic diversity and population structure","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1311","display_name":"Genetics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/13","display_name":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11354","display_name":"Evolution and Paleontology Studies","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1911","display_name":"Paleontology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecological-niche-modeling","display_name":"ecological niche modeling","score":0.9390000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/glacial-refugia","display_name":"glacial refugia","score":0.9210000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/last-glacial-maximum","display_name":"Last Glacial Maximum","score":0.902999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fossil-record","display_name":"fossil record","score":0.4440000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-bias","display_name":"model bias","score":0.6000000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/small-mammals","display_name":"small mammals","score":0.75},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/range-shifts","display_name":"range shifts","score":0.7870000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change","display_name":"climate change","score":0.8259999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pleistocene","display_name":"Pleistocene","score":0.6190000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/holocene","display_name":"Holocene","score":0.7710000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conservation-planning","display_name":"conservation planning","score":0.6940000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-calibration","display_name":"model calibration","score":0.4429999887943268}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188291805","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1979625","display_name":"Last Glacial Maximum","level":3,"score":0.7982240915298462},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.6585607528686523},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.6403900980949402},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103215972","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5381340","display_name":"Environmental niche modelling","level":4,"score":0.6153905987739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.6033235192298889},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102715595","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172861","display_name":"Ecological niche","level":3,"score":0.5696848034858704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153991713","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17142856","display_name":"Niche","level":2,"score":0.5635864734649658},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140345934","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25445","display_name":"Holocene","level":2,"score":0.46858853101730347},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132124917","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4257161","display_name":"Species distribution","level":3,"score":0.4684118628501892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C53570757","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25546","display_name":"Pleistocene","level":2,"score":0.4572025239467621},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83002819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q798528","display_name":"Hindcast","level":2,"score":0.4324067234992981},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776110070","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2455930","display_name":"Fossil Record","level":2,"score":0.4172717332839966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15739521","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q602963","display_name":"Glacial period","level":2,"score":0.4167463481426239},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.38646650314331055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100970517","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52107","display_name":"Physical geography","level":1,"score":0.3510809540748596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3256600499153137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.24680376052856445},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185933670","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52105","display_name":"Habitat","level":2,"score":0.24632295966148376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.13485032320022583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228736","display_name":"Materials science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159985019","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181790","display_name":"Composite material","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/ecog.01294","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01294","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01294","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S25093289","display_name":"Ecography","issn_l":"0906-7590","issn":["0906-7590","1600-0587"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","norway-2","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Ecography","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15","display_name":"Life on land","score":0.8125},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":0.685699999332428}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320310145","display_name":"Johns Hopkins University","ror":"https://ror.org/00za53h95"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":44,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W615175138","https://openalex.org/W1549142192","https://openalex.org/W1794328226","https://openalex.org/W1965759024","https://openalex.org/W1976872321","https://openalex.org/W1976926569","https://openalex.org/W1982527512","https://openalex.org/W1991006833","https://openalex.org/W2015834247","https://openalex.org/W2017704156","https://openalex.org/W2035656197","https://openalex.org/W2053174671","https://openalex.org/W2053530418","https://openalex.org/W2056348421","https://openalex.org/W2056629804","https://openalex.org/W2056724834","https://openalex.org/W2060594964","https://openalex.org/W2090559048","https://openalex.org/W2097800683","https://openalex.org/W2099625525","https://openalex.org/W2112700353","https://openalex.org/W2115099498","https://openalex.org/W2115268776","https://openalex.org/W2117930979","https://openalex.org/W2118436877","https://openalex.org/W2121290602","https://openalex.org/W2127611332","https://openalex.org/W2131687730","https://openalex.org/W2139416101","https://openalex.org/W2157033432","https://openalex.org/W2161480748","https://openalex.org/W2170175048","https://openalex.org/W2269436796","https://openalex.org/W2321841075","https://openalex.org/W2480695953","https://openalex.org/W4210554807","https://openalex.org/W4230216162","https://openalex.org/W4232115956","https://openalex.org/W4232948591","https://openalex.org/W4244166556","https://openalex.org/W4249298688","https://openalex.org/W4253853111","https://openalex.org/W4256013982","https://openalex.org/W4256359778"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2151678441","https://openalex.org/W4392119380","https://openalex.org/W2115099498","https://openalex.org/W7096304515","https://openalex.org/W7128714808","https://openalex.org/W2921852155","https://openalex.org/W6892317319","https://openalex.org/W2121290602","https://openalex.org/W1977613748"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Ecological":[0],"niche":[1,141],"models":[2],"(ENMs)":[3],"are":[4],"crucial":[5],"tools":[6],"for":[7,83,100,139,143],"anticipating":[8],"range":[9,46,120],"shifts":[10,47],"driven":[11],"by":[12],"climate":[13,55],"change.":[14],"As":[15],"hypotheses":[16,82],"of":[17,41,61,86],"future":[18,119],"biotic":[19],"change,":[20],"they":[21],"can":[22],"be":[23,133],"difficult":[24],"to":[25,37,43,94],"test":[26],"using":[27,63],"independent":[28],"data.":[29],"The":[30],"fossil":[31,64,98,130],"record":[32,99,131],"is":[33],"the":[34,39,59,67,91,95,111,126],"best":[35],"way":[36],"assess":[38],"ability":[40],"ENMs":[42,62],"correctly":[44],"predict":[45],"because":[48],"it":[49],"provides":[50],"empirical":[51],"ranges":[52],"under":[53],"novel":[54],"conditions.":[56],"We":[57,76],"tested":[58],"performance":[60],"distributions":[65],"from":[66,90],"Last":[68],"Glacial":[69],"Maximum":[70],"(LGM,":[71],"\u223c21":[72],"000":[73],"yr":[74],"ago).":[75],"compared":[77],"hindcast":[78],"ENM":[79],"LGM":[80,97],"distribution":[81],"five":[84],"species":[85,102],"small":[87],"mammals,":[88],"drawn":[89],"published":[92],"literature,":[93],"known":[96],"those":[101],"and":[103,122,128],"found":[104],"a":[105],"consistent":[106],"southern":[107],"prediction":[108],"bias":[109,114],"in":[110,117],"ENMs.":[112],"This":[113],"urges":[115],"caution":[116],"interpreting":[118],"predictions,":[121],"we":[123],"suggest":[124],"that":[125],"Pleistocene":[127],"Holocene":[129],"should":[132],"used":[134],"as":[135],"an":[136],"additional":[137],"resource":[138],"calibrating":[140],"modelling":[142],"conservation":[144],"planning.":[145]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-14T11:04:58.165337","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
