{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2074764495","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2006.08.005","title":"Heterogeneous expectations, exchange rate dynamics and predictability","display_name":"Heterogeneous expectations, exchange rate dynamics and predictability","publication_year":2007,"publication_date":"2007-02-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2074764495","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2006.08.005","mag":"2074764495"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2006.08.005","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2006.08.005","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2006.08.005","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S62201805","display_name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","issn_l":"0167-2681","issn":["0167-2681","1879-1751"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-2","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Economic Behavior &amp; Organization","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://cendef.uva.nl/binaries/content/assets/subsites/amsterdam-school-of-economics/amsterdam-school-of-economics-research-institute/cendef/working-papers-2002/bmw.pdf?1417180372309","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032502898","display_name":"Sebastiano Manzan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0931-9769","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0931-9769"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I153648349","display_name":"University of Leicester","ror":"https://ror.org/04h699437","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I153648349"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sebastiano Manzan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I153648349"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5088202203","display_name":"Frank H. Westerhoff","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1666-4103","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1666-4103"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170658231","display_name":"Osnabr\u00fcck University","ror":"https://ror.org/04qmmjx98","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170658231"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Frank H. Westerhoff","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics, University of Osnabrueck, Rolandstrasse 8, D-49069 Osnabrueck, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, University of Osnabrueck, Rolandstrasse 8, D-49069 Osnabrueck, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170658231"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5032502898"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I153648349"],"apc_list":{"value":3180,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3180},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":11.8625,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":102,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98163399,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"64","issue":"1","first_page":"111","last_page":"128"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.9214000105857849,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.9214000105857849,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.05700000002980232,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12137","display_name":"Economic theories and models","score":0.00839999970048666,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heterogeneous-expectations","display_name":"heterogeneous expectations","score":0.9200000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exchange-rate-predictability","display_name":"exchange rate predictability","score":0.8230000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/chartism","display_name":"Chartism","score":0.7789999842643738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fundamentalism","display_name":"fundamentalism","score":0.9449999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/random-walk-hypothesis","display_name":"random walk hypothesis","score":0.7590000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/out-of-sample-forecasting","display_name":"out-of-sample forecasting","score":0.7889999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/major-currencies","display_name":"major currencies","score":0.5979999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/us-dollar-exchange-rate","display_name":"US dollar exchange rate","score":0.7350000143051147}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.911137580871582},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145912823","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q113558","display_name":"Dynamics (music)","level":2,"score":0.6049343943595886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776988154","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66100","display_name":"Exchange rate","level":2,"score":0.4975004494190216},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3883019983768463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.37826284766197205},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.29588812589645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.19479063153266907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.1437700390815735},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.132905513048172},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.12972459197044373},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19417346","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7922","display_name":"Pedagogy","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":11,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2006.08.005","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2006.08.005","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2006.08.005","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S62201805","display_name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","issn_l":"0167-2681","issn":["0167-2681","1879-1751"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-2","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Economic Behavior &amp; Organization","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:02-14","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://cendef.uva.nl/binaries/content/assets/subsites/amsterdam-school-of-economics/amsterdam-school-of-economics-research-institute/cendef/working-papers-2002/bmw.pdf?1417180372309","pdf_url":"http://cendef.uva.nl/binaries/content/assets/subsites/amsterdam-school-of-economics/amsterdam-school-of-economics-research-institute/cendef/working-papers-2002/bmw.pdf?1417180372309","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.173.2435","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.173.2435","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://nts4.oec.uni-osnabrueck.de/auwi/Westerhoff/M_W_Pre.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.434.5896","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.434.5896","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.uni-bamberg.de/fileadmin/uni/fakultaeten/sowi_lehrstuehle/vwl_wirtschaftspolitik/Team/Westerhoff/Publications/2007/2007_Pbl_Manzan_Westerhoff.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:3124164994","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/amsndfwpp/02-14.htm","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:3125898096","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://autopapers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1269055","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:HAL:hal-00531865v1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hal.science/hal-00531865","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402512","display_name":"HAL","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4405252976","host_organization_name":"Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405252976"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2007, 64 (1), pp.111. &#x27E8;10.1016/j.jebo.2006.08.005&#x27E9;","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:64:y:2007:i:1:p:111-128","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-2681(07)00062-5","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:gesis.izsoz.de:document/19954","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/19954","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401996","display_name":"Social Science Open Access Repository (GESIS \u2013 Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210101898","host_organization_name":"GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210101898"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Economic Behavior &amp; Organization","raw_type":"journal article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:lra.le.ac.uk:2381/2937","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268107000625","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402365","display_name":"Leicester Research Archive (University of Leicester)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I153648349","host_organization_name":"University of Leicester","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I153648349"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:tara.tcd.ie:2262/47906","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2262/47906","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400387","display_name":"Trinity's Access to Research Output (TARA) (Trinity College Dublin)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205274468","host_organization_name":"Trinity College Dublin","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:02-14","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://cendef.uva.nl/binaries/content/assets/subsites/amsterdam-school-of-economics/amsterdam-school-of-economics-research-institute/cendef/working-papers-2002/bmw.pdf?1417180372309","pdf_url":"http://cendef.uva.nl/binaries/content/assets/subsites/amsterdam-school-of-economics/amsterdam-school-of-economics-research-institute/cendef/working-papers-2002/bmw.pdf?1417180372309","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2074764495.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2074764495.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":46,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W136649052","https://openalex.org/W649414769","https://openalex.org/W1481105534","https://openalex.org/W1507124672","https://openalex.org/W1516422303","https://openalex.org/W1571537497","https://openalex.org/W1572930125","https://openalex.org/W1604600108","https://openalex.org/W1754742701","https://openalex.org/W1916722811","https://openalex.org/W1970495888","https://openalex.org/W1971091528","https://openalex.org/W1973959218","https://openalex.org/W2000842688","https://openalex.org/W2001974864","https://openalex.org/W2006128341","https://openalex.org/W2012796138","https://openalex.org/W2017977879","https://openalex.org/W2028785873","https://openalex.org/W2040503026","https://openalex.org/W2041462006","https://openalex.org/W2071702024","https://openalex.org/W2091029773","https://openalex.org/W2092617414","https://openalex.org/W2093181602","https://openalex.org/W2098345198","https://openalex.org/W2100084310","https://openalex.org/W2103911250","https://openalex.org/W2116912141","https://openalex.org/W2121490355","https://openalex.org/W2125223252","https://openalex.org/W2152762434","https://openalex.org/W2171220845","https://openalex.org/W2752497194","https://openalex.org/W2890840156","https://openalex.org/W3022105419","https://openalex.org/W3121616071","https://openalex.org/W3121904436","https://openalex.org/W3123021517","https://openalex.org/W3124006124","https://openalex.org/W3124211260","https://openalex.org/W3125696988","https://openalex.org/W3126002526","https://openalex.org/W3184577197","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W6637612854"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2182244035","https://openalex.org/W2169155768","https://openalex.org/W7095096490","https://openalex.org/W3096248012","https://openalex.org/W7005223470","https://openalex.org/W3125360658","https://openalex.org/W7095821127","https://openalex.org/W3123928653","https://openalex.org/W3179151360","https://openalex.org/W2021633865"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":13}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
