{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2071419136","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00049-7","title":"Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data","display_name":"Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data","publication_year":2000,"publication_date":"2000-04-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2071419136","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00049-7","mag":"2071419136"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00049-7","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00049-7","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00049-7","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5056688620","display_name":"Antonio Garc\u00eda\u2010Ferrer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4859-8756","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4859-8756"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63634437","display_name":"Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Madrid","ror":"https://ror.org/01cby8j38","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63634437"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Antonio Garc\u0131\u0301a-Ferrer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico, Econom\u0131\u0301a Cuantitativa, Ciudad Universitaria de Cantoblanco, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico, Econom\u0131\u0301a Cuantitativa, Ciudad Universitaria de Cantoblanco, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63634437"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044179155","display_name":"Marcos Bujosa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6493-8215","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6493-8215"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63634437","display_name":"Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Madrid","ror":"https://ror.org/01cby8j38","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63634437"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marcos Bujosa-Brun","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico, Econom\u0131\u0301a Cuantitativa, Ciudad Universitaria de Cantoblanco, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico, Econom\u0131\u0301a Cuantitativa, Ciudad Universitaria de Cantoblanco, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63634437"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5056688620"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63634437"],"apc_list":{"value":2800,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2800},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.4997,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":35,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.92177164,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"16","issue":"2","first_page":"207","last_page":"227"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13399","display_name":"Unemployment and Economic Growth","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/turning-point-forecasting","display_name":"turning point forecasting","score":0.7110000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/industrial-production","display_name":"industrial production","score":0.75},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/unobserved-components-model","display_name":"unobserved components model","score":0.9100000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-surveys","display_name":"business surveys","score":0.8050000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/leading-indicators","display_name":"leading indicators","score":0.7710000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.6420000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/oecd-countries","display_name":"OECD countries","score":0.6200000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/france","display_name":"France","score":0.8159999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spain","display_name":"Spain","score":1.0}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3018122192","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q569250","display_name":"Turning point","level":3,"score":0.8595371246337891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6187037229537964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198477413","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7647069","display_name":"Survey data collection","level":2,"score":0.5888265371322632},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781181686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4226068","display_name":"Coherence (philosophical gambling strategy)","level":2,"score":0.48495009541511536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.45899680256843567},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168167062","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1117970","display_name":"Component (thermodynamics)","level":2,"score":0.4548637270927429},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4342647194862366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83873408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192311","display_name":"Business cycle","level":2,"score":0.4292597472667694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3505980968475342},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.2678087055683136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.20147961378097534},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.1900385618209839},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781291010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178580","display_name":"Period (music)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24890656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82811","display_name":"Acoustics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97355855","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11473","display_name":"Thermodynamics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00049-7","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00049-7","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00049-7","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:eee:intfor:v:16:y:2000:i:2:p:207-227","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(99)00049-7","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":31,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W61186484","https://openalex.org/W329075684","https://openalex.org/W574718173","https://openalex.org/W1507613752","https://openalex.org/W1509938741","https://openalex.org/W1596537384","https://openalex.org/W1967377532","https://openalex.org/W1975494633","https://openalex.org/W1976889240","https://openalex.org/W1990491203","https://openalex.org/W1995145474","https://openalex.org/W1995205965","https://openalex.org/W1999839857","https://openalex.org/W2008814035","https://openalex.org/W2038117429","https://openalex.org/W2041781936","https://openalex.org/W2075799430","https://openalex.org/W2081902484","https://openalex.org/W2082568268","https://openalex.org/W2086670062","https://openalex.org/W2089773942","https://openalex.org/W2093290362","https://openalex.org/W2124555908","https://openalex.org/W2162853289","https://openalex.org/W2168144414","https://openalex.org/W2313953460","https://openalex.org/W2571446175","https://openalex.org/W2669894597","https://openalex.org/W3015379812","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4307492541"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7019105895","https://openalex.org/W2075799430","https://openalex.org/W1974329360","https://openalex.org/W1519934166","https://openalex.org/W3123269250","https://openalex.org/W7098594934","https://openalex.org/W2231262319","https://openalex.org/W2318545229","https://openalex.org/W3121424770","https://openalex.org/W1578974815"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}