{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2069718578","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4356","title":"The Misuse of Expected Returns","display_name":"The Misuse of Expected Returns","publication_year":2006,"publication_date":"2006-11-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2069718578","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4356","mag":"2069718578"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4356","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4356","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4356","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S162525099","display_name":"Financial Analysts Journal","issn_l":"0015-198X","issn":["0015-198X","1938-3312"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-2","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Financial Analysts Journal","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057330087","display_name":"Eric N. Hughson","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I188538660","display_name":"University of Colorado Boulder","ror":"https://ror.org/02ttsq026","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802236040","display_name":"University of Colorado System","ror":"https://ror.org/00jc20583","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802236040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eric Hughson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Eric Hughson is professor of finance in the Leeds School of Business\r                    at the University of Colorado, Boulder"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Eric Hughson is professor of finance in the Leeds School of Business\r                    at the University of Colorado, Boulder","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802236040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036110021","display_name":"Michael Jay Stutzer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7363-4010","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7363-4010"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I188538660","display_name":"University of Colorado Boulder","ror":"https://ror.org/02ttsq026","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802236040","display_name":"University of Colorado System","ror":"https://ror.org/00jc20583","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802236040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michael Stutzer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Michael Stutzer is a professor of finance and director of the\r                    Burridge Center for Securities Analysis and Valuation in the Leeds School of\r                    Business at the University of Colorado, Boulder","Michael Stutzer is a professor of finance and director of the#R# Burridge Center for Securities Analysis and Valuation in the Leeds School of#R# Business at the University of Colorado, Boulder"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Michael Stutzer is a professor of finance and director of the\r                    Burridge Center for Securities Analysis and Valuation in the Leeds School of\r                    Business at the University of Colorado, Boulder","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802236040"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Michael Stutzer is a professor of finance and director of the#R# Burridge Center for Securities Analysis and Valuation in the Leeds School of#R# Business at the University of Colorado, Boulder","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012975798","display_name":"Chris Yung","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9690-3735","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9690-3735"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I188538660","display_name":"University of Colorado Boulder","ror":"https://ror.org/02ttsq026","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802236040","display_name":"University of Colorado System","ror":"https://ror.org/00jc20583","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802236040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chris Yung","raw_affiliation_strings":["Chris Yung is a professor of finance in the Leeds School of Business\r                    at the University of Colorado, Boulder","Chris Yung is a professor of finance in the Leeds School of Business#R# at the University of Colorado, Boulder"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Chris Yung is a professor of finance in the Leeds School of Business\r                    at the University of Colorado, Boulder","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802236040"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Chris Yung is a professor of finance in the Leeds School of Business#R# at the University of Colorado, Boulder","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802236040"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.9565,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":29,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.93832924,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"62","issue":"6","first_page":"88","last_page":"96"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.9897000193595886,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.9897000193595886,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12123","display_name":"Financial Analysis and Corporate Governance","score":0.00430000014603138,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12675","display_name":"Financial Reporting and Valuation Research","score":0.0013000000035390258,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expected-returns","display_name":"expected returns","score":0.8989999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/return-prediction","display_name":"return forecasting","score":0.6010000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/continuous-compounding","display_name":"continuous compounding","score":0.972000002861023}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207673951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1303150","display_name":"Compounding","level":2,"score":0.7792967557907104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5930047631263733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154611145","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4331879","display_name":"Expected return","level":3,"score":0.5440934300422668},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86637286","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7317264","display_name":"Rate of return","level":2,"score":0.47428494691848755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.37685737013816833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.36468565464019775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.32131484150886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.1822882890701294},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.08504325151443481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159110408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121176","display_name":"Nursing","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780821815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5340806","display_name":"Portfolio","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4356","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4356","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4356","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S162525099","display_name":"Financial Analysts Journal","issn_l":"0015-198X","issn":["0015-198X","1938-3312"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-2","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Financial Analysts Journal","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:ufajxx:v:62:y:2006:i:6:p:88-96","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4356","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":7,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1564265816","https://openalex.org/W1798005098","https://openalex.org/W1997523561","https://openalex.org/W2016632234","https://openalex.org/W2068928693","https://openalex.org/W2081507500","https://openalex.org/W2164811216"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4237846429","https://openalex.org/W2409975199","https://openalex.org/W1997523561","https://openalex.org/W3197383828","https://openalex.org/W2084037392","https://openalex.org/W1966147936","https://openalex.org/W6996720845","https://openalex.org/W7096439480","https://openalex.org/W2460435499","https://openalex.org/W585449085"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Much":[0],"textbook":[1],"emphasis":[2],"is":[3,64],"placed":[4],"on":[5],"the":[6,39,47,58,71],"mathematical":[7,48,59,72],"notion":[8],"of":[9,20,57,70],"expected":[10,49,60,73],"return":[11,32,43,63],"and":[12],"its":[13],"historical":[14],"estimate":[15],"via":[16],"an":[17],"arithmetic":[18],"average":[19],"past":[21],"returns.":[22],"But":[23],"those":[24],"wanting":[25],"to":[26],"forecast":[27],"a":[28],"typical":[29],"future":[30,41],"cumulative":[31,42,50],"should":[33],"be":[34],"more":[35,65],"interested":[36],"in":[37,45],"estimating":[38,46],"median":[40],"than":[44,67],"return.":[51,75],"For":[52],"that":[53],"purpose,":[54],"continuous":[55],"compounding":[56,69],"log":[61],"gross":[62,74],"relevant":[66],"ordinary":[68],"Self-test":[76]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
