{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2066937629","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00471.x","title":"Studies in subjective probability l: Prediction of random events","display_name":"Studies in subjective probability l: Prediction of random events","publication_year":1983,"publication_date":"1983-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2066937629","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00471.x","mag":"2066937629"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00471.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00471.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00471.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S34816297","display_name":"Scandinavian Journal of Psychology","issn_l":"0036-5564","issn":["0036-5564","1467-9450"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","dongbi-d","erih-plus","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Scandinavian Journal of Psychology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5056532333","display_name":"Karl Halvor Teigen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6165-9034","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6165-9034"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4432739","display_name":"University of Bergen","ror":"https://ror.org/03zga2b32","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4432739"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"KARL HALVOR TEIGEN","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Bergen, Norway"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Bergen, Norway","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4432739"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5056532333"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4432739"],"apc_list":{"value":4160,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4160},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.7504,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":31,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.86363636,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"24","issue":"1","first_page":"13","last_page":"25"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12574","display_name":"Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2714","display_name":"Family Practice"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10646","display_name":"Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/subjective-probability","display_name":"subjective probability","score":0.9929999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lotteries","display_name":"lotteries","score":0.8840000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/representativeness-heuristic","display_name":"representativeness heuristic","score":0.921999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/availability-heuristic","display_name":"availability heuristic","score":0.9950000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/anchoring-effect","display_name":"anchoring effect","score":0.8220000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/context-effects","display_name":"context effects","score":0.8539999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/absolute-judgment","display_name":"absolute judgment","score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/guessing-behavior","display_name":"guessing behavior","score":0.46399998664855957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/kahneman-and-tversky","display_name":"Kahneman and Tversky","score":0.6930000185966492}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37381756","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q20203288","display_name":"Representativeness heuristic","level":2,"score":0.8819896578788757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127705205","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5748245","display_name":"Heuristics","level":2,"score":0.7389467358589172},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.7250946164131165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.5835818648338318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.5769212245941162},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.5587161779403687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.5506399273872375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18483071","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q168432","display_name":"Anchoring","level":2,"score":0.47199109196662903},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.4100688397884369},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.3787364065647125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3472534418106079},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.32540684938430786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.20747947692871094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.17779359221458435},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.1768057942390442},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00471.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00471.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00471.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S34816297","display_name":"Scandinavian Journal of Psychology","issn_l":"0036-5564","issn":["0036-5564","1467-9450"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","dongbi-d","erih-plus","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Scandinavian Journal of Psychology","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":19,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W158727920","https://openalex.org/W1966732012","https://openalex.org/W1980054641","https://openalex.org/W1983106519","https://openalex.org/W1990166189","https://openalex.org/W2009581877","https://openalex.org/W2015689462","https://openalex.org/W2016377072","https://openalex.org/W2017221118","https://openalex.org/W2035782089","https://openalex.org/W2053458080","https://openalex.org/W2059961458","https://openalex.org/W2059975159","https://openalex.org/W2060596770","https://openalex.org/W2075163166","https://openalex.org/W2318989202","https://openalex.org/W2324062392","https://openalex.org/W2414424298","https://openalex.org/W4292157289"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2154721120","https://openalex.org/W1977233297","https://openalex.org/W7065759868","https://openalex.org/W2061850264","https://openalex.org/W6987819653","https://openalex.org/W3015517669","https://openalex.org/W2006811163","https://openalex.org/W2062419469","https://openalex.org/W6963924588","https://openalex.org/W133276306"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"When":[0],"students":[1],"are":[2,15,115],"asked":[3],"to":[4,21,70,103,118],"predict":[5],"the":[6,51,77,112,119],"outcome":[7],"of":[8,40,66,99],"a":[9,64,96],"random":[10],"event,":[11],"where":[12],"all":[13],"alternatives":[14],"equally":[16],"probable":[17],"(lotteries),":[18],"they":[19],"tend":[20],"choose":[22],"central,":[23],"\u201crepresentative\u201d":[24],"values,":[25],"and":[26,47,73],"avoid":[27],"extreme":[28],"ones.":[29],"In":[30,94],"ten":[31],"informal":[32],"experiments,":[33],"it":[34],"is":[35,42,101],"shown":[36],"how":[37],"this":[38],"pattern":[39],"choices":[41],"influenced":[43],"by":[44,84],"various":[45],"procedural":[46],"structural":[48],"changes":[49],"in":[50],"basic":[52],"task.":[53],"The":[54],"results":[55],"show":[56],"that":[57],"guessing":[58,100],"behavior":[59],"can":[60],"be":[61],"described":[62],"as":[63],"kind":[65],"absolute":[67],"judgment,":[68],"subject":[69],"grouping,":[71],"anchoring":[72],"context":[74],"effects.":[75],"Of":[76],"two":[78],"general":[79],"prediction":[80],"heuristics":[81],"originally":[82],"proposed":[83],"Kahneman":[85],"&":[86],"Tversky":[87],"(1973),":[88],"\u201crepresentativeness\u201d":[89],"applies":[90],"better":[91],"than":[92],"\u201cavailability\u201d.":[93],"fact,":[95],"major":[97],"strategy":[98],"apparently":[102],"eschew":[104],"numbers":[105],"with":[106],"prominent,":[107],"\u201cnon\u2010random\u201d":[108],"properties,":[109],"which":[110],"at":[111],"same":[113],"time":[114],"highly":[116],"available":[117],"subjects.":[120]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}