{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2064545948","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020259","title":"Effects of climate change on US crop production: simulation results using two different GCM scenarios. Part I: Wheat, potato, maize, and citrus","display_name":"Effects of climate change on US crop production: simulation results using two different GCM scenarios. Part I: Wheat, potato, maize, and citrus","publication_year":2002,"publication_date":"2002-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2064545948","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020259","mag":"2064545948"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3354/cr020259","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020259","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020259","pdf_url":"https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2002/20/c020p259.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S56312815","display_name":"Climate Research","issn_l":"0936-577X","issn":["0936-577X","1616-1572"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4353060361","host_organization_name":"Inter-Research Science Center","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4353060361"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Inter-Research Science Center"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Climate Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2002/20/c020p259.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057633267","display_name":"Francesco Nicola Tubiello","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4617-4690","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4617-4690"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I116578957","display_name":"Goddard Institute for Space Studies","ror":"https://ror.org/01cyfxe35","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I116578957","https://openalex.org/I4210124779","https://openalex.org/I78577930"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"FN Tubiello","raw_affiliation_strings":["Columbia University and NASA-Goddard Institute Space Studies, Armstrong Hall, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Columbia University and NASA-Goddard Institute Space Studies, Armstrong Hall, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116578957","https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5052672762","display_name":"Cynthia E. Rosenzweig","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8541-2201","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8541-2201","https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7885-671X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I116578957","display_name":"Goddard Institute for Space Studies","ror":"https://ror.org/01cyfxe35","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I116578957","https://openalex.org/I4210124779","https://openalex.org/I78577930"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"C Rosenzweig","raw_affiliation_strings":["Columbia University and NASA-Goddard Institute Space Studies, Armstrong Hall, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Columbia University and NASA-Goddard Institute Space Studies, Armstrong Hall, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116578957","https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"RA Goldberg","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I116578957","display_name":"Goddard Institute for Space Studies","ror":"https://ror.org/01cyfxe35","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I116578957","https://openalex.org/I4210124779","https://openalex.org/I78577930"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"RA Goldberg","raw_affiliation_strings":["Columbia University and NASA-Goddard Institute Space Studies, Armstrong Hall, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Columbia University and NASA-Goddard Institute Space Studies, Armstrong Hall, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116578957","https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5111802425","display_name":"S.S. Jagtap","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I33213144","display_name":"University of Florida","ror":"https://ror.org/02y3ad647","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I33213144"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"S Jagtap","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Florida, PO Box 110270, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Florida, PO Box 110270, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I33213144"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100867425","display_name":"JW Jones","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I33213144","display_name":"University of Florida","ror":"https://ror.org/02y3ad647","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I33213144"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"JW Jones","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Florida, PO Box 110270, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Florida, PO Box 110270, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I33213144"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5057633267"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116578957","https://openalex.org/I78577930"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":13.5595,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":286,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.9862108,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"20","issue":null,"first_page":"259","last_page":"270"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10439","display_name":"Climate change impacts on agriculture","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1102","display_name":"Agronomy and Crop Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10439","display_name":"Climate change impacts on agriculture","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1102","display_name":"Agronomy and Crop Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10471","display_name":"Climate Change Policy and Economics","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-impacts-on-agriculture","display_name":"climate change impacts on agriculture","score":0.9549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crop-yield-projections","display_name":"crop yield projections","score":0.8619999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wheat","display_name":"wheat","score":0.8659999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/potato","display_name":"potato","score":0.9879999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/maize","display_name":"maize","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/citrus","display_name":"citrus","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/precipitation-change","display_name":"precipitation change","score":0.6330000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dryland-agriculture","display_name":"rainfed agriculture","score":0.6589999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/yield-variability","display_name":"yield variability","score":0.5720000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/elevated-co2","display_name":"elevated CO2","score":0.7940000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/temperature-effects-on-crops","display_name":"temperature effects on crops","score":0.7250000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dssat-crop-model","display_name":"DSSAT crop model","score":0.7680000066757202}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777399377","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17073957","display_name":"DSSAT","level":3,"score":0.8751864433288574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.6912325620651245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.553913950920105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.5455191135406494},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.5328325033187866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118518473","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11451","display_name":"Agriculture","level":2,"score":0.48764312267303467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777106113","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18349347","display_name":"Crop simulation model","level":3,"score":0.4643550217151642},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C128383755","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3816336","display_name":"Agricultural productivity","level":3,"score":0.46402862668037415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126343540","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q889514","display_name":"Crop yield","level":2,"score":0.45794007182121277},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137580998","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q235352","display_name":"Crop","level":2,"score":0.4551926851272583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778348673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q739302","display_name":"Production (economics)","level":2,"score":0.4446335434913635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.4011209011077881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37621935","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3606845","display_name":"Agricultural science","level":1,"score":0.33358949422836304},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C6557445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q173113","display_name":"Agronomy","level":1,"score":0.3165978789329529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.2459348738193512},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97137747","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q38112","display_name":"Forestry","level":1,"score":0.20908525586128235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.11075389385223389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.10139229893684387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3354/cr020259","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020259","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020259","pdf_url":"https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2002/20/c020p259.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S56312815","display_name":"Climate Research","issn_l":"0936-577X","issn":["0936-577X","1616-1572"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4353060361","host_organization_name":"Inter-Research Science Center","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4353060361"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Inter-Research Science Center"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Climate Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.iiasa.ac.at:6551","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/6551/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401423","display_name":"IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1317774081","host_organization_name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317774081"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3354/cr020259","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020259","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020259","pdf_url":"https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2002/20/c020p259.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S56312815","display_name":"Climate Research","issn_l":"0936-577X","issn":["0936-577X","1616-1572"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4353060361","host_organization_name":"Inter-Research Science Center","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4353060361"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Inter-Research Science Center"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Climate Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":1.0,"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"},{"score":0.991100013256073,"display_name":"Zero hunger","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/2"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306101","display_name":"National Aeronautics and Space Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/027ka1x80"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320273","display_name":"University of Cambridge","ror":"https://ror.org/013meh722"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320290","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2064545948.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2064545948.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":14,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W129305439","https://openalex.org/W137128246","https://openalex.org/W1217270653","https://openalex.org/W1587057093","https://openalex.org/W1910275463","https://openalex.org/W1964935193","https://openalex.org/W1988514021","https://openalex.org/W2018352007","https://openalex.org/W2018605243","https://openalex.org/W2057045198","https://openalex.org/W2067966602","https://openalex.org/W2172193502","https://openalex.org/W2970278706","https://openalex.org/W3149539672"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2022583974","https://openalex.org/W2105960213","https://openalex.org/W4253058909","https://openalex.org/W2802103173","https://openalex.org/W1486797116","https://openalex.org/W2066265257","https://openalex.org/W236308485","https://openalex.org/W2122379545","https://openalex.org/W2769121220","https://openalex.org/W1987257835"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"projected":[1,89,104],"US":[2,62,150],"agricultural":[3,63],"production":[4,99,152],"in":[5,60,95,126],"2030":[6],"and":[7,25,31,111,160],"2090":[8],"at":[9],"45":[10],"representative":[11],"sites,":[12],"using":[13],"2":[14,163],"scenarios":[15],"of":[16,53,75,129],"climate":[17,66,92,123,154],"change,":[18,155],"developed":[19],"with":[20,50],"the":[21,26,32,51,72,76,86,91,109,117,142,148],"Hadley":[22],"Centre":[23,28,119],"Model":[24,121],"Canadian":[27,118],"Climate":[29,120],"Model,":[30],"DSSAT":[33],"(Decision":[34],"Support":[35],"Systems":[36],"for":[37],"Agro-technology":[38],"Transfer)":[39],"dynamic":[40],"crop-growth":[41],"models.These":[42],"simulation":[43],"results":[44,82],"have":[45],"previously":[46],"been":[47],"aggregated":[48],"nationally":[49],"aid":[52],"economic":[54],"models":[55],"to":[56,105,133,144],"show":[57],"an":[58],"increase":[59],"overall":[61],"output":[64],"under":[65,116,153],"change.In":[67],"this":[68],"work,":[69],"we":[70],"analyzed":[71],"regional":[73],"distribution":[74],"simulated":[77,149],"yields,":[78],"showing":[79],"that":[80],"positive":[81],"largely":[83],"depend":[84],"on":[85],"precipitation":[87,102],"increases":[88],"by":[90,136],"scenarios.In":[93],"contrast,":[94],"some":[96],"important":[97],"rainfed":[98],"areas":[100],"where":[101],"was":[103],"decrease,":[106],"such":[107,156],"as":[108,157],"Kansas":[110],"Oklahoma":[112],"Bread":[113],"Basket":[114],"regions":[115],"scenario,":[122],"change":[124],"resulted":[125],"significant":[127],"reductions":[128],"grain":[130],"yield":[131],"(-30":[132],"-40%),":[134],"accompanied":[135],"increased":[137],"year-to-year":[138],"variability.We":[139],"also":[140],"discussed":[141],"response":[143],"additional":[145],"factors":[146],"affecting":[147],"crop":[151],"higher":[158],"temperature":[159],"elevated":[161],"CO":[162],".":[164]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":22},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":20},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":18},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":27},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":22},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":17},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":14}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
