{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2058332016","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1198/0003130042809","title":"Bowlers' Hot Hands","display_name":"Bowlers' Hot Hands","publication_year":2004,"publication_date":"2004-02-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2058332016","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1198/0003130042809","mag":"2058332016"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1198/0003130042809","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1198/0003130042809","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1198/0003130042809","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4179095","display_name":"The American Statistician","issn_l":"0003-1305","issn":["0003-1305","1537-2731"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The American Statistician","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5029513550","display_name":"Reid Dorsey-Palmateer","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I177881444","display_name":"Pomona College","ror":"https://ror.org/0074grg94","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I177881444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Reid Dorsey-Palmateer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Reid Dorsey-Palmateer is a Student, and Gary Smith is Fletcher Jones Professor, Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, CA 91711 . We are very grateful to Walter Ray Williams, Jr., for his generous and patient answers to our many questions, and to the referees and (especially) the editor for their exceptionally detailed and helpful suggestions"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Reid Dorsey-Palmateer is a Student, and Gary Smith is Fletcher Jones Professor, Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, CA 91711 . We are very grateful to Walter Ray Williams, Jr., for his generous and patient answers to our many questions, and to the referees and (especially) the editor for their exceptionally detailed and helpful suggestions","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I177881444"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061023414","display_name":"Gary Smith","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5173-2741","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5173-2741"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I177881444","display_name":"Pomona College","ror":"https://ror.org/0074grg94","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I177881444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gary Smith","raw_affiliation_strings":["Reid Dorsey-Palmateer is a Student, and Gary Smith is Fletcher Jones Professor, Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, CA 91711 . We are very grateful to Walter Ray Williams, Jr., for his generous and patient answers to our many questions, and to the referees and (especially) the editor for their exceptionally detailed and helpful suggestions","Pomona College"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Reid Dorsey-Palmateer is a Student, and Gary Smith is Fletcher Jones Professor, Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, CA 91711 . We are very grateful to Walter Ray Williams, Jr., for his generous and patient answers to our many questions, and to the referees and (especially) the editor for their exceptionally detailed and helpful suggestions","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I177881444"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Pomona College","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I177881444"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I177881444"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":7.1495,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":97,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96302802,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"58","issue":"1","first_page":"38","last_page":"45"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9848999977111816,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9848999977111816,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13500","display_name":"Probability and Statistical Research","score":0.006200000178068876,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10813","display_name":"Sport Psychology and Performance","score":0.004399999976158142,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hot-hand","display_name":"hot hand","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/streaks","display_name":"streaks","score":0.6769999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/confounding","display_name":"confounding","score":0.4779999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/basketball","display_name":"basketball","score":0.3070000112056732},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/athletic-performance","display_name":"athletic performance","score":0.39500001072883606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conditional-probability","display_name":"conditional probability","score":0.3070000112056732}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3018071949481964}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1198/0003130042809","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1198/0003130042809","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1198/0003130042809","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4179095","display_name":"The American Statistician","issn_l":"0003-1305","issn":["0003-1305","1537-2731"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The American Statistician","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/study-designs/observational-study","display_name":"Observational Study"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":8,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1707367756","https://openalex.org/W2000297374","https://openalex.org/W2060981373","https://openalex.org/W2073969957","https://openalex.org/W2077793683","https://openalex.org/W2109047492","https://openalex.org/W2486858994","https://openalex.org/W4252684946"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7095780987","https://openalex.org/W2037672446","https://openalex.org/W4387492113","https://openalex.org/W2073969957","https://openalex.org/W7216882485","https://openalex.org/W2047014552","https://openalex.org/W4403706779","https://openalex.org/W1980296525","https://openalex.org/W7095964426","https://openalex.org/W3114492948"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Earlier":[0],"analysis":[1,26],"of":[2,27,37,44,50],"basketball":[3],"data":[4],"debunked":[5],"the":[6,35,48],"common":[7],"perception":[8],"that":[9],"players":[10],"sometimes":[11],"have":[12,68],"\u201chot":[13],"hands.\u201d":[14],"That":[15],"analysis,":[16],"however,":[17],"did":[18],"not":[19,42],"control":[20],"for":[21,32],"several":[22],"confounding":[23],"influences.":[24],"Our":[25],"professional":[28],"bowling":[29],"indicates":[30],"that,":[31],"many":[33],"bowlers,":[34],"probability":[36],"rolling":[38],"a":[39,69],"strike":[40,71],"is":[41],"independent":[43],"previous":[45],"outcomes":[46],"and":[47,82],"number":[49],"strikes":[51,76],"rolled":[52],"varies":[53],"more":[54,86],"across":[55],"games":[56],"than":[57,77],"can":[58],"be":[59],"explained":[60],"by":[61],"chance":[62],"alone.":[63],"For":[64],"example,":[65],"most":[66],"bowlers":[67],"higher":[70],"proportion":[72],"after":[73,78],"j":[74,79,89],"consecutive":[75,80],"nonstrikes,":[81],"this":[83],"difference":[84],"becomes":[85],"pronounced":[87],"as":[88],"increases":[90],"from":[91],"1":[92],"to":[93],"4.":[94]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":7}],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}