{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2055879272","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","title":"Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries","display_name":"Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries","publication_year":2007,"publication_date":"2007-02-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2055879272","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","mag":"2055879272","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20076758","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2798034"},"language":"fr","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210206495","display_name":"European Journal of Population / Revue europ\u00e9enne de D\u00e9mographie","issn_l":"0168-6577","issn":["0168-6577","1572-9885"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Population / Revue europ\u00e9enne de D\u00e9mographie","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073474100","display_name":"Maarten Alders","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1322731696","display_name":"Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek","ror":"https://ror.org/0408v4c28","country_code":"NL","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1322731696"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Maarten Alders","raw_affiliation_strings":["Statistics Netherlands,  PO Box 4000,  NL-2270 JM, Voorburg, The Netherlands,","[Statistics Netherlands]"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Statistics Netherlands,  PO Box 4000,  NL-2270 JM, Voorburg, The Netherlands,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1322731696"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"[Statistics Netherlands]","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1322731696"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5006447718","display_name":"Nico Keilman","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0163-3283","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0163-3283"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I184942183","display_name":"University of Oslo","ror":"https://ror.org/01xtthb56","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Nico Keilman","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics,  University of Oslo, PO Box 1095, Blindern, Oslo, N-0317, Norway","University of Oslo#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics,  University of Oslo, PO Box 1095, Blindern, Oslo, N-0317, Norway","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oslo#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086738477","display_name":"Harri Cruijsen","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Harri Cruijsen","raw_affiliation_strings":["DEMOCAST,  Vluchtheuvelstraat 2,  NL-6621 BK, Dreumel, The Netherlands","DEMOCAST"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"DEMOCAST,  Vluchtheuvelstraat 2,  NL-6621 BK, Dreumel, The Netherlands","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"DEMOCAST","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5006447718"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"],"apc_list":{"value":2990,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2990},"apc_paid":{"value":2990,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2990},"fwci":16.8904,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":64,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98700555,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"23","issue":"1","first_page":"33","last_page":"69"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13546","display_name":"Census and Population Estimation","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-uncertainty","display_name":"forecast uncertainty","score":0.7139999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-error-evaluation","display_name":"forecast error analysis","score":0.4909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expert-opinion","display_name":"expert opinion","score":0.9670000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/total-fertility-rate","display_name":"total fertility rate","score":0.8190000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/life-expectancy","display_name":"life expectancy","score":0.9139999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/net-migration","display_name":"net migration","score":0.9929999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/european-countries","display_name":"European countries","score":0.6179999709129333}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.7358407974243164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776548248","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12621536","display_name":"Judgement","level":2,"score":0.7332260012626648},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133925201","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188419","display_name":"Life expectancy","level":3,"score":0.7058166861534119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.6006566882133484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.5852715373039246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21992297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q733683","display_name":"Net migration rate","level":4,"score":0.5587853193283081},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5561519265174866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188353592","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q450586","display_name":"Expectancy theory","level":2,"score":0.46946966648101807},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C518429986","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q964401","display_name":"Fertility","level":3,"score":0.44983017444610596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3453825116157532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.33731523156166077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2612473964691162},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77352025","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q386191","display_name":"Population growth","level":3,"score":0.25056612491607666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.20515182614326477},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.1815098524093628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.07768037915229797},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210206495","display_name":"European Journal of Population / Revue europ\u00e9enne de D\u00e9mographie","issn_l":"0168-6577","issn":["0168-6577","1572-9885"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Population / Revue europ\u00e9enne de D\u00e9mographie","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:2798034","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2798034","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Eur J Popul","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:20076758","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20076758","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:23:y:2007:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-006-9104-4","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210206495","display_name":"European Journal of Population / Revue europ\u00e9enne de D\u00e9mographie","issn_l":"0168-6577","issn":["0168-6577","1572-9885"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Population / Revue europ\u00e9enne de D\u00e9mographie","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2055879272.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2055879272.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":24,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W295735511","https://openalex.org/W425806827","https://openalex.org/W1491232544","https://openalex.org/W1575299154","https://openalex.org/W1586338512","https://openalex.org/W1979575715","https://openalex.org/W1987799806","https://openalex.org/W1999996900","https://openalex.org/W2002951770","https://openalex.org/W2010294065","https://openalex.org/W2038738998","https://openalex.org/W2050017478","https://openalex.org/W2073626348","https://openalex.org/W2095599124","https://openalex.org/W2104894070","https://openalex.org/W2313953460","https://openalex.org/W2328212465","https://openalex.org/W2613810568","https://openalex.org/W2626319880","https://openalex.org/W2798058877","https://openalex.org/W3165064679","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4388077328","https://openalex.org/W6677096361"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2002951770","https://openalex.org/W295735511","https://openalex.org/W2933535822","https://openalex.org/W2803796536","https://openalex.org/W2600699217","https://openalex.org/W7124428629","https://openalex.org/W2028950376","https://openalex.org/W2052881852","https://openalex.org/W2416580143","https://openalex.org/W7100270617"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,35],"aim":[1],"of":[2,6,53,76,92,101,109],"the":[3,67,74,77,95,99],"'Uncertain":[4],"Population":[5],"Europe'(UPE)":[7],"project":[8],"was":[9],"to":[10],"compute":[11],"long-term":[12],"stochastic":[13,38],"(probabilistic)":[14],"population":[15,39],"forecasts":[16,40,49],"for":[17,26,30,116],"18":[18,117],"European":[19,118],"countries.":[20,119],"We":[21],"developed":[22],"a":[23,89],"general":[24],"methodology":[25],"constructing":[27],"predictive":[28],"distributions":[29],"fertility,":[31],"mortality":[32],"and":[33,72,98,111,113],"migration.":[34],"assumptions":[36,93],"underlying":[37],"can":[41,85],"be":[42,86],"assessed":[43],"by":[44,57],"analysing":[45],"errors":[46],"in":[47,66],"past":[48],"or":[50,56],"model-based":[51],"estimates":[52],"forecast":[54],"errors,":[55],"expert":[58],"judgement.":[59],"All":[60],"three":[61,78],"approaches":[62],"have":[63],"been":[64],"used":[65],"project.":[68],"This":[69],"article":[70],"summarizes":[71],"discusses":[73],"results":[75],"approaches.":[79],"It":[80],"demonstrates":[81],"how":[82],"the-sometimes":[83],"conflicting-results":[84],"synthesized":[87],"into":[88],"consistent":[90],"set":[91],"about":[94],"expected":[96],"levels":[97],"uncertainty":[100],"total":[102],"fertility":[103],"rate,":[104],"life":[105],"expectancy":[106],"at":[107],"birth":[108],"men":[110],"women,":[112],"net":[114],"migration":[115]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}