{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2052370542","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.w3.54","title":"Health Spending Projections For 2002\u20132012","display_name":"Health Spending Projections For 2002\u20132012","publication_year":2003,"publication_date":"2003-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2052370542","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.w3.54","mag":"2052370542","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14527235"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1377/hlthaff.w3.54","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.w3.54","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.w3.54","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210185023","display_name":"Health Affairs","issn_l":"0278-2715","issn":["0278-2715","1544-5208","2694-233X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","dongbi-a","doyens","fnege-2","jufo-2","medline","norway-1","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315983","host_organization_name":"Project HOPE","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315983"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Project HOPE"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Health Affairs","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065097289","display_name":"Stephen Heffler","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I50959184","display_name":"Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services","ror":"https://ror.org/02g02rq35","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299022934","https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Stephen Heffler","raw_affiliation_strings":["The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110517659","display_name":"Sheila D. Smith","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I50959184","display_name":"Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services","ror":"https://ror.org/02g02rq35","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299022934","https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sheila Smith","raw_affiliation_strings":["The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003029245","display_name":"Sean P. Keehan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I50959184","display_name":"Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services","ror":"https://ror.org/02g02rq35","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299022934","https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sean Keehan","raw_affiliation_strings":["The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5111625190","display_name":"M. Kent Clemens","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I50959184","display_name":"Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services","ror":"https://ror.org/02g02rq35","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299022934","https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"M. Kent Clemens","raw_affiliation_strings":["The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5052936360","display_name":"Greg Won","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I50959184","display_name":"Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services","ror":"https://ror.org/02g02rq35","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299022934","https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Greg Won","raw_affiliation_strings":["The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023977850","display_name":"Mark A. Zezza","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1905-4343","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1905-4343"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I50959184","display_name":"Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services","ror":"https://ror.org/02g02rq35","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299022934","https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mark Zezza","raw_affiliation_strings":["The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The authors are all in the Office of the Actuary Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore. Stephen Heffler is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group. Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Greg Won are economists; Kent Clemens is an actuary; and Mark \u01b5ezza is a statistician","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I50959184"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I50959184"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":34.4594,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":71,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99691608,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"22","issue":"Suppl1","first_page":"W3","last_page":"54"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10391","display_name":"Healthcare Policy and Management","score":0.5839999914169312,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10391","display_name":"Healthcare Policy and Management","score":0.5839999914169312,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12781","display_name":"Global Health Care Issues","score":0.41359999775886536,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3600","display_name":"General Health Professions"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11531","display_name":"Healthcare Systems and Reforms","score":0.001500000013038516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicare-spending","display_name":"Medicare spending","score":0.6980000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicaid-spending","display_name":"Medicaid expenditures","score":0.9829999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-care-costs","display_name":"health care costs","score":0.5789999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/underwriting-cycles","display_name":"underwriting cycles","score":0.7459999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/labor-market-conditions","display_name":"labor market conditions","score":0.5889999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-care-financing","display_name":"health care financing","score":0.37299999594688416}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2994140446","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31207","display_name":"Health spending","level":4,"score":0.834695041179657},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26503482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1898080","display_name":"Underwriting","level":2,"score":0.6346132159233093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.6127365231513977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114350782","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12638","display_name":"Gross domestic product","level":2,"score":0.5896713733673096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776534028","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1141363","display_name":"Medicaid","level":3,"score":0.5759819149971008},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5513991713523865},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177033891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5164722","display_name":"Consumer spending","level":3,"score":0.4669678509235382},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2983635472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q334911","display_name":"Health insurance","level":3,"score":0.4646757245063782},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4249254","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3044431","display_name":"Demographic economics","level":1,"score":0.45669418573379517},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777242750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31351","display_name":"Slowdown","level":2,"score":0.4332973062992096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160735492","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31207","display_name":"Health care","level":2,"score":0.38982754945755005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.36241060495376587},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.33779144287109375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.23266765475273132},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50522688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189833","display_name":"Economic growth","level":1,"score":0.22332528233528137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.15855422616004944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000206","descriptor_name":"Actuarial Analysis","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003625","descriptor_name":"Data Collection","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005102","descriptor_name":"Health Expenditures","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005102","descriptor_name":"Health Expenditures","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006278","descriptor_name":"Medicare","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006278","descriptor_name":"Medicare","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006760","descriptor_name":"Hospitalization","qualifier_ui":"Q000191","qualifier_name":"economics","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007348","descriptor_name":"Insurance, Health","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007348","descriptor_name":"Insurance, Health","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008484","descriptor_name":"Medicaid","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008484","descriptor_name":"Medicaid","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D010548","descriptor_name":"Personal Health Services","qualifier_ui":"Q000191","qualifier_name":"economics","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011307","descriptor_name":"Drug Prescriptions","qualifier_ui":"Q000191","qualifier_name":"economics","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014481","descriptor_name":"United States","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019981","descriptor_name":"Health Care Sector","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D019981","descriptor_name":"Health Care Sector","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1377/hlthaff.w3.54","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.w3.54","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.w3.54","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210185023","display_name":"Health Affairs","issn_l":"0278-2715","issn":["0278-2715","1544-5208","2694-233X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","dongbi-a","doyens","fnege-2","jufo-2","medline","norway-1","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315983","host_organization_name":"Project HOPE","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315983"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Project HOPE"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Health Affairs","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:14527235","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14527235","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Health affairs (Project Hope)","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","score":0.6800000071525574}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":7,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1972226752","https://openalex.org/W1977391688","https://openalex.org/W2044504054","https://openalex.org/W2053873022","https://openalex.org/W2080895188","https://openalex.org/W2083579254","https://openalex.org/W2098311953"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2162510053","https://openalex.org/W2151282259","https://openalex.org/W2123032814","https://openalex.org/W2003338293","https://openalex.org/W2053873022","https://openalex.org/W2266024025","https://openalex.org/W2171813799","https://openalex.org/W1980130408","https://openalex.org/W2129193580","https://openalex.org/W7100983726"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"forecast":[1],"a":[2],"slowdown":[3],"in":[4,9,86,91],"national":[5,57],"health":[6,20,43,58,73],"spending":[7,21,29,59],"growth":[8,60],"2002":[10],"and":[11,17,36],"2003,":[12],"reflecting":[13],"slower":[14],"projected":[15,27,80],"Medicare":[16],"private":[18,42],"personal":[19],"growth.":[22,67],"These":[23],"factors":[24],"outweigh":[25],"higher":[26],"Medicaid":[28],"growth,":[30],"caused":[31],"by":[32],"weak":[33],"labor":[34],"markets,":[35],"an":[37],"expectation":[38],"of":[39,75],"continued":[40],"high":[41],"insurance":[44],"premium":[45],"inflation":[46],"related":[47],"to":[48,64,81,88],"the":[49,53,72],"underwriting":[50],"cycle.":[51],"Over":[52],"entire":[54],"projection":[55],"period,":[56],"is":[61,70,79],"still":[62],"expected":[63],"outpace":[65],"economic":[66],"The":[68],"result":[69],"that":[71],"share":[74],"gross":[76],"domestic":[77],"product":[78],"increase":[82],"from":[83],"14.1":[84],"percent":[85,90],"2001":[87],"17.7":[89],"2012.":[92]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}