{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2051828614","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.21335","title":"Statistical validation of a global model for the distribution of the ultimate number of citations accrued by papers published in a scientific journal","display_name":"Statistical validation of a global model for the distribution of the ultimate number of citations accrued by papers published in a scientific journal","publication_year":2010,"publication_date":"2010-04-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2051828614","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.21335","mag":"2051828614","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21858251","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3158611"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/asi.21335","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.21335","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.21335","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/asi.21335","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S80113298","display_name":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology","issn_l":"1532-2882","issn":["1532-2882","1532-2890"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/asi.21335","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Michael J. Stringer","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I111979921","display_name":"Northwestern University","ror":"https://ror.org/000e0be47","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Michael J. Stringer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Physics and Astronomy Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics and Astronomy Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Marta Sales\u2010Pardo","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I111979921","display_name":"Northwestern University","ror":"https://ror.org/000e0be47","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marta Sales\u2010Pardo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departament d'Enginyeria Qui\u0301mica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, 43007, Spain","Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208","Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO), Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departament d'Enginyeria Qui\u0301mica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, 43007, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO), Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073544378","display_name":"Lu\u0131\u0301s A. Nunes Amaral","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3762-789X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3762-789X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I111979921","display_name":"Northwestern University","ror":"https://ror.org/000e0be47","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1344073410","display_name":"Howard Hughes Medical Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/006w34k90","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1344073410"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lu\u00eds A. Nunes Amaral","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departament d'Enginyeria Qui\u0301mica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, 43007, Spain","Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departament d'Enginyeria Qui\u0301mica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, 43007, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111979921","https://openalex.org/I1344073410"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":7.3009,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":103,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97812526,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"61","issue":"7","first_page":"1377","last_page":"1385"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10102","display_name":"scientometrics and bibliometrics research","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10102","display_name":"scientometrics and bibliometrics research","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13284","display_name":"Psychology Research and Bibliometrics","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3205","display_name":"Experimental and Cognitive Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13976","display_name":"Web visibility and informetrics","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/citation-distribution","display_name":"citation distribution","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bibliometrics","display_name":"bibliometric analysis","score":0.6069999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/journal-impact","display_name":"journal impact","score":0.7670000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interdisciplinary-journals","display_name":"multidisciplinary journals","score":0.7730000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/false-discovery-rate","display_name":"false discovery rate","score":0.7110000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/web-of-science","display_name":"Web of Science","score":0.6980000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scholarly-journals","display_name":"scientific journals","score":0.45500001311302185}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151620405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q826116","display_name":"Log-normal distribution","level":2,"score":0.7089999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178315738","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q603441","display_name":"Bibliometrics","level":2,"score":0.607200026512146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778805511","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1713","display_name":"Citation","level":2,"score":0.597100019454956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.4767000079154968},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.46230000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.40860000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9652623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190109","display_name":"Field (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.39980000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105345328","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q206276","display_name":"Citation analysis","level":3,"score":0.39969998598098755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.38929998874664307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22467394","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q849359","display_name":"Multidisciplinary approach","level":2,"score":0.3736000061035156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98385598","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1339385","display_name":"Empirical distribution function","level":2,"score":0.36399999260902405},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.3601999878883362},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.35510000586509705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.3409000039100647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58489278","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172284","display_name":"Data set","level":2,"score":0.3400999903678894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781083858","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17327049","display_name":"Scientific literature","level":2,"score":0.3199000060558319},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C525823164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q472342","display_name":"Scientometrics","level":2,"score":0.3158000111579895},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.31119999289512634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160947583","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2083147","display_name":"Distribution fitting","level":3,"score":0.29019999504089355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1602530","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1472677","display_name":"Heavy-tailed distribution","level":3,"score":0.2680000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193244246","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5432696","display_name":"False discovery rate","level":3,"score":0.25780001282691956}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1002/asi.21335","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.21335","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.21335","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/asi.21335","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S80113298","display_name":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology","issn_l":"1532-2882","issn":["1532-2882","1532-2890"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:2164213","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3158611","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:3158611","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3158611","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"J Am Soc Inf Sci Technol","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:21858251","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21858251","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology : JASIST","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/asi.21335","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.21335","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.21335","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/asi.21335","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S80113298","display_name":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology","issn_l":"1532-2882","issn":["1532-2882","1532-2890"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4823788950","display_name":"Integrative Approach to Characterizing Gene Regulation","funder_award_id":"K25GM069546","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337354","funder_display_name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306082","display_name":"Howard Hughes Medical Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/006w34k90"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337354","display_name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/04q48ey07"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2051828614.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2051828614.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":27,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1972225872","https://openalex.org/W1980068683","https://openalex.org/W1983454294","https://openalex.org/W1991901918","https://openalex.org/W1992021819","https://openalex.org/W1993772548","https://openalex.org/W1995945562","https://openalex.org/W1998736328","https://openalex.org/W2009660843","https://openalex.org/W2018805474","https://openalex.org/W2062021443","https://openalex.org/W2080450835","https://openalex.org/W2082603871","https://openalex.org/W2085692706","https://openalex.org/W2094215989","https://openalex.org/W2100484636","https://openalex.org/W2105664624","https://openalex.org/W2110065044","https://openalex.org/W2151866568","https://openalex.org/W2170156025","https://openalex.org/W2463095032","https://openalex.org/W2932797287","https://openalex.org/W2950890478","https://openalex.org/W4236891926","https://openalex.org/W4238987087","https://openalex.org/W4243845236","https://openalex.org/W4253120075"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7095113524","https://openalex.org/W2476481115","https://openalex.org/W2897300376","https://openalex.org/W2125810311","https://openalex.org/W2792435978","https://openalex.org/W2368399142","https://openalex.org/W2936898428","https://openalex.org/W3101042272","https://openalex.org/W7001632893","https://openalex.org/W2058000830"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"A":[0],"central":[1],"issue":[2],"in":[3,15,31,78,120,123],"evaluative":[4],"bibliometrics":[5],"is":[6,105,128],"the":[7,10,16,44,59,64,101,111,132],"characterization":[8],"of":[9,13,26,35,43,81,113,116],"citation":[11,48,92],"distribution":[12,57,104,112],"papers":[14,118],"scientific":[17,117],"literature.":[18],"Here,":[19],"we":[20],"perform":[21],"a":[22,54,90,106,124],"large-scale":[23],"empirical":[24],"analysis":[25],"journals":[27,46,75],"from":[28,131],"every":[29],"field":[30],"Thomson":[32],"Reuters'":[33],"Web":[34],"Science":[36],"database.":[37],"We":[38,70],"find":[39,71],"that":[40,50,62,72,100,127],"only":[41],"30":[42,82],"2,184":[45],"have":[47],"distributions":[49,93],"are":[51,76,94],"inconsistent":[52],"with":[53],"discrete":[55,102],"lognormal":[56,103],"at":[58,68],"rejection":[60],"threshold":[61],"controls":[63],"False":[65],"Discovery":[66],"Rate":[67],"0.05.":[69],"large,":[73],"multidisciplinary":[74],"over-represented":[77],"this":[79],"set":[80],"journals,":[83],"leading":[84],"us":[85],"to":[86],"conclude":[87],"that,":[88],"within":[89],"discipline,":[91],"lognormal.":[95],"Our":[96],"results":[97],"strongly":[98],"suggest":[99],"globally":[107],"accurate":[108],"model":[109],"for":[110],"\"eventual":[114],"impact\"":[115],"published":[119],"single-discipline":[121],"journal":[122],"single":[125],"year":[126],"removed":[129],"sufficiently":[130],"present":[133],"date.":[134]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":9}],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
