{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2051783473","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/70.1.157","title":"On the Posterior Odds of Time Series Models","display_name":"On the Posterior Odds of Time Series Models","publication_year":1983,"publication_date":"1983-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2051783473","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/70.1.157","mag":"2051783473"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1093/biomet/70.1.157","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/70.1.157","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/70.1.157","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S172180718","display_name":"Biometrika","issn_l":"0006-3444","issn":["0006-3444","1464-3510"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biometrika","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054843123","display_name":"D. S. Poskitt","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0467-1912","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0467-1912"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I52099693","display_name":"University of York","ror":"https://ror.org/04m01e293","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I52099693"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"D. S. POSKITT","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52099693"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108351458","display_name":"Andrew R. Tremayne","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I52099693","display_name":"University of York","ror":"https://ror.org/04m01e293","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I52099693"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"A. R. TREMAYNE","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52099693"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52099693"],"apc_list":{"value":2724,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":3592},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.4338,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":29,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.89891617,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"70","issue":"1","first_page":"157","last_page":"157"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10136","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Inference","score":0.8564000129699707,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10136","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Inference","score":0.8564000129699707,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.05719999969005585,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13141","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Applications","score":0.019700000062584877,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/posterior-odds","display_name":"posterior odds","score":0.7860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-selection","display_name":"model selection","score":0.9319999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-models","display_name":"time series models","score":0.8320000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nonlinear-time-series","display_name":"nonlinear time series","score":0.8330000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-comparison","display_name":"model comparison","score":0.6819999814033508}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780767217","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5532421","display_name":"Generality","level":2,"score":0.705182671546936},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143095724","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q515895","display_name":"Odds","level":3,"score":0.6131702661514282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.6079461574554443},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.5867818593978882},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.577890157699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5600621104240417},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777212361","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5127848","display_name":"Class (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.535304844379425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81917197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q628760","display_name":"Selection (genetic algorithm)","level":2,"score":0.5348279476165771},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.472557008266449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93959086","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6888345","display_name":"Model selection","level":2,"score":0.4490549862384796},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.4150204062461853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.39792174100875854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.35030657052993774},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3209671974182129},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.30920618772506714},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2983025014400482},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.18157517910003662},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.06647053360939026},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.052563369274139404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C542102704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q183257","display_name":"Psychotherapist","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1093/biomet/70.1.157","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/70.1.157","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/70.1.157","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S172180718","display_name":"Biometrika","issn_l":"0006-3444","issn":["0006-3444","1464-3510"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biometrika","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.2307/2335953","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2335953","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2335953","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S172180718","display_name":"Biometrika","issn_l":"0006-3444","issn":["0006-3444","1464-3510"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biometrika","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.7900000214576721,"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":19,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W103475893","https://openalex.org/W103786094","https://openalex.org/W110902330","https://openalex.org/W116068376","https://openalex.org/W1500470240","https://openalex.org/W1973464501","https://openalex.org/W1999641116","https://openalex.org/W2005122059","https://openalex.org/W2026590277","https://openalex.org/W2028725248","https://openalex.org/W2030703096","https://openalex.org/W2049049032","https://openalex.org/W2077946312","https://openalex.org/W2093088624","https://openalex.org/W2111292279","https://openalex.org/W2118626571","https://openalex.org/W2146855196","https://openalex.org/W2328562310","https://openalex.org/W2403160433"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2045049461","https://openalex.org/W1978893398","https://openalex.org/W4381094582","https://openalex.org/W1977906818","https://openalex.org/W2201908702","https://openalex.org/W2369625323","https://openalex.org/W2364579609","https://openalex.org/W1522139108","https://openalex.org/W2353528968","https://openalex.org/W2032776242"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"is":[2,14,25],"concerned":[3],"with":[4],"model":[5],"selection":[6],"in":[7,27],"time":[8,35],"series":[9,36],"analysis.":[10],"A":[11],"Bayesian":[12],"approach":[13],"adopted":[15],"to":[16,41],"investigate":[17],"various":[18],"decision":[19],"criteria":[20],"previously":[21],"advocated.":[22],"The":[23],"discussion":[24],"conducted":[26],"the":[28],"context":[29],"of":[30,33,38,46,49],"a":[31,43],"class":[32],"nonlinear":[34],"models":[37],"sufficient":[39],"generality":[40],"encompass":[42],"wide":[44],"range":[45],"processes":[47],"currently":[48],"interest.":[50]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}