{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2050157652","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/20111835","title":"Can Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? Evidence from the European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys","display_name":"Can Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? Evidence from the European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys","publication_year":2006,"publication_date":"2006-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2050157652","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/20111835","mag":"2050157652"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2307/20111835","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/20111835","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2307/20111835","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S16296580","display_name":"Southern Economic Journal","issn_l":"0038-4038","issn":["0038-4038","2325-8012"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Southern Economic Journal","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030373430","display_name":"John A. Cotsomitis","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"John A. Cotsomitis","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113457946","display_name":"Andy C. C. Kwan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andy C. C. Kwan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3010,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3010},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.3607,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":49,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.9334224,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"72","issue":"3","first_page":"597","last_page":"597"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9692000150680542,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9692000150680542,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.018300000578165054,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.0026000000070780516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumer-confidence","display_name":"consumer confidence","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/household-expenditure","display_name":"household expenditure","score":0.7670000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/leading-indicators","display_name":"leading indicators","score":0.5730000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/customer-expectations","display_name":"customer expectations","score":0.6399999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumer-confidence-index","display_name":"consumer confidence index","score":0.39399999380111694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rational-expectations","display_name":"rational expectations","score":0.5630000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumer-attitudes","display_name":"consumer attitudes","score":0.32199999690055847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/granger-causality","display_name":"Granger causality","score":0.5849999785423279}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96405632","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128416","display_name":"Consumer confidence index","level":2,"score":0.8735424280166626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776034101","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1509347","display_name":"Commission","level":2,"score":0.6903854608535767},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020782553","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8880","display_name":"European commission","level":3,"score":0.6867067813873291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177033891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5164722","display_name":"Consumer spending","level":3,"score":0.6412723064422607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5117928385734558},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.39734065532684326},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.21024706959724426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155202549","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178803","display_name":"International trade","level":1,"score":0.1429186761379242},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.13775476813316345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2910001868","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q458","display_name":"European union","level":2,"score":0.11268243193626404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2307/20111835","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/20111835","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2307/20111835","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S16296580","display_name":"Southern Economic Journal","issn_l":"0038-4038","issn":["0038-4038","2325-8012"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Southern Economic Journal","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":19,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W28607594","https://openalex.org/W50277838","https://openalex.org/W1993881686","https://openalex.org/W1994316472","https://openalex.org/W2037432647","https://openalex.org/W2057155346","https://openalex.org/W2058815839","https://openalex.org/W2064551161","https://openalex.org/W2076317414","https://openalex.org/W2080149316","https://openalex.org/W2081845494","https://openalex.org/W2096975625","https://openalex.org/W2142635246","https://openalex.org/W2151036863","https://openalex.org/W2169878477","https://openalex.org/W2324446907","https://openalex.org/W3125466725","https://openalex.org/W3125696988","https://openalex.org/W3126033574"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1994316472","https://openalex.org/W2099446455","https://openalex.org/W28607594","https://openalex.org/W2096975625","https://openalex.org/W2142676207","https://openalex.org/W7099209787","https://openalex.org/W4403917126","https://openalex.org/W2168895318","https://openalex.org/W1897267521","https://openalex.org/W7095816029"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"1.":[0],"IntroductionThe":[1],"analysis":[2],"of":[3,6,16,40,58,63,77,87,106,114,169,179,192,196,204,221,231,278,326,366,376,415,467,489,506,518,528,534,555,587],"the":[4,20,48,59,69,71,84,97,104,112,133,153,167,193,201,218,222,226,239,255,270,306,310,347,350,357,363,367,377,388,419,437,440,444,465,483,487,495,516,525,532,553,575,581,592],"impact":[5],"consumer":[7,10,26,51,88,180,248,301,320,341,369,389,398,409,416,468,502,529,556],"attitudes":[8,27],"on":[9,37,200,464,482,531],"spending":[11,52,473,561],"has":[12,136],"been":[13],"an":[14,275],"area":[15],"sustained":[17],"interest":[18,24],"in":[19,25,90,96,122,184,309,349,356,439,449,458],"macroeconomics":[21],"literature.":[22],"This":[23],"reflects":[28],"a":[29,75,264,323,331,412,547,563],"popular":[30],"belief":[31,46],"that":[32,50,103,132,146,190,238,250,269,319,362,375,387,407],"macroeconomic":[33,160],"outcomes":[34],"depend":[35],"heavily":[36],"consumers'":[38],"expectations":[39,345],"future":[41,247,315,327,397],"economic":[42],"conditions.":[43],"Reinforcing":[44],"this":[45,567],"is":[47,155,251,274,322,372,411,521],"fact":[49],"accounts":[53],"for":[54,120,396,539],"60%":[55],"to":[56,82,142,298,470,500,512,523,551,558],"70%":[57],"Gross":[60],"Domestic":[61],"Product":[62],"highly":[64],"industrialized":[65],"countries":[66,542],"such":[67],"as":[68,303,353,540,543],"G-7.During":[70],"past":[72],"few":[73],"decades,":[74],"number":[76],"single-country":[78,513],"investigations":[79],"have":[80,452,474],"attempted":[81],"assess":[83],"predictive":[85,138,364,526],"power":[86,119,149,395,457,527],"confidence":[89,181,321,342,370,390,447,469,530,557,572],"forecasting":[91,148,219,459],"household":[92,143,460,472,560],"spending.":[93,399],"For":[94],"example,":[95],"United":[98,311,351,358,378,441,445],"States,":[99],"Mishkin":[100],"(1978)":[101],"reports":[102,386],"Index":[105,154,195,230],"Consumer":[107,197,232,576,597],"Sentiment":[108,583],"(ICS)":[109],"published":[110],"by":[111,254,305],"University":[113],"Michigan":[115,134,194,223,256],"possesses":[116],"good":[117,137],"explanatory":[118,394,456],"changes":[121],"durable":[123],"goods.":[124],"Carroll,":[125,170,205],"Fuhrer,":[126,171,206],"and":[127,163,172,207,211,214,225,260,289,295,336,343,403,431,494,580,596],"Wilcox":[128,208],"(1994)":[129,174,291],"also":[130,385],"find":[131,318,406,434],"ICS":[135,224],"capability":[139],"with":[140,158],"regard":[141],"expenditure":[144],"but":[145],"its":[147],"decreases":[150],"considerably":[151],"when":[152,176],"used":[156,183],"along":[157],"other":[159,283],"variables.1":[161],"Kwan":[162,402],"Cotsomitis":[164,404],"(2004)":[165,216],"examine":[166,339],"robustness":[168],"Wilcox's":[173],"findings":[175,236],"alternative":[177],"measures":[178],"are":[182,346,355,427,589],"their":[185,510],"prediction":[186],"equations.":[187],"They":[188,317,360],"report":[189,268,361],"use":[191,570],"Expectations":[198],"improves":[199],"estimation":[202],"results":[203,422,479],"(1994).":[209],"Bram":[210],"Ludvigson":[212,215],"(1998)":[213,433],"compare":[217],"performance":[220],"U.S.":[227,279],"Conference":[228,240,271],"Board's":[229,241,272],"Confidence":[233,577],"(ICC).":[234],"Their":[235],"indicate":[237],"index":[242,371,391],"provides":[243,392],"additional":[244],"information":[245],"about":[246],"consumption":[249,328],"not":[252],"captured":[253],"index.":[257],"However,":[258],"Chopin":[259],"Darrat":[261],"(2000),":[262],"utilizing":[263],"multivariate":[265],"causality":[266,294],"framework,":[267],"ICC":[273],"unreliable":[276],"predictor":[277,414],"retail":[280],"sales.As":[281],"regards":[282],"studies":[284,463,508],"using":[285,382,424],"non-U.S.":[286],"data,":[287,384],"Acemoglu":[288],"Scott":[290],"employ":[292],"Granger":[293],"regression":[296],"analyses":[297],"determine":[299],"if":[300],"confidence,":[302],"measured":[304],"Gallup":[307],"Poll":[308],"Kingdom,":[312,446],"can":[313],"predict":[314,471],"consumption.":[316],"leading":[324],"indicator":[325],"growth.":[329],"In":[330,400],"subsequent":[332],"study,":[333],"Delorme,":[334],"Kamerschen,":[335],"Voeks":[337],"(2002)":[338],"whether":[340],"rational":[344],"same":[348],"Kingdom":[352],"they":[354],"States.":[359,379],"ability":[365,466,554],"U.K":[368],"greater":[373],"than":[374],"Belessiotis":[380],"(1996),":[381],"French":[383],"decent":[393],"Canada,":[401],"(2005)":[405],"although":[408],"sentiment":[410],"reliable":[413],"expenditures":[417],"at":[418],"national":[420],"level,":[421],"obtained":[423],"regional":[425],"data":[426,538],"quite":[428],"mixed.":[429],"Fan":[430],"Wong":[432],"that,":[435],"unlike":[436],"case":[438],"States":[442],"or":[443,454,492],"indicators":[448],"Hong":[450],"Kong":[451],"little":[453],"no":[455],"spending.The":[461],"existing":[462],"produced":[475],"mixed":[476],"results.":[477],"The":[478],"vary,":[480],"depending":[481],"sample":[484],"period":[485],"chosen,":[486],"frequency":[488],"observations":[490],"(monthly":[491],"quarterly),":[493],"different":[496],"survey":[497],"methodologies":[498],"employed":[499],"gauge":[501],"attitudes.":[503],"Moreover,":[504],"most":[505],"these":[507],"confine":[509],"attention":[511],"investigations.":[514],"Given":[515],"diversity":[517],"results,":[519],"it":[520],"important":[522],"investigate":[524],"basis":[533],"comparable":[535],"time":[536],"series":[537],"many":[541],"possible.This":[544],"paper":[545],"presents":[546],"first":[548],"formal":[549],"attempt":[550],"study":[552],"forecast":[559],"within":[562],"multicountry":[564],"framework.":[565],"To":[566],"end,":[568],"we":[569],"two":[571],"indices,":[573],"namely":[574],"Indicator":[578,584],"(CCI)":[579],"Economic":[582],"(ESI),":[585],"both":[586],"which":[588],"derived":[590],"from":[591],"European":[593],"Commission":[594],"Business":[595],"Survey":[598],"(ECBCS).":[599],"\u2026":[600]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-09-26T08:19:03.415552","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
