{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2043914021","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","title":"Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: an innovative risk-based approach","display_name":"Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: an innovative risk-based approach","publication_year":2012,"publication_date":"2012-11-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2043914021","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","mag":"2043914021"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86860186","display_name":"Natural Hazards","issn_l":"0921-030X","issn":["0921-030X","1573-0840"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Natural Hazards","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077566006","display_name":"Murray Dale","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1062-5771","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1062-5771"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210126811","display_name":"CH2M (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/035fz0s07","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210126811","https://openalex.org/I4210150894"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Murray Dale","raw_affiliation_strings":["Halcrow (A CH2M HILL Company), Burderop Park, Swindon, UK","Halcrow (A CH2M HILL Company)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Halcrow (A CH2M HILL Company), Burderop Park, Swindon, UK","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Halcrow (A CH2M HILL Company)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210126811"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063284043","display_name":"Jon M. Wicks","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210126811","display_name":"CH2M (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/035fz0s07","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210126811","https://openalex.org/I4210150894"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jon Wicks","raw_affiliation_strings":["Halcrow (A CH2M HILL Company), Burderop Park, Swindon, UK","Halcrow (A CH2M HILL Company)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Halcrow (A CH2M HILL Company), Burderop Park, Swindon, UK","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Halcrow (A CH2M HILL Company)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210126811"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108086671","display_name":"Ken Mylne","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3134-0713","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3134-0713"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ken Mylne","raw_affiliation_strings":["Met Office, Exeter, UK","Met Office"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057022798","display_name":"Florian Pappenberger","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154986956","display_name":"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts","ror":"https://ror.org/014w0fd65","country_code":"GB","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154986956"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Florian Pappenberger","raw_affiliation_strings":["European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Reading, Berkshire, UK","European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Reading, Berkshire, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154986956"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154986956"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063389199","display_name":"Stefan Laeger","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I184903800","display_name":"Environment Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/01zewfb16","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1326803253","https://openalex.org/I184903800","https://openalex.org/I2802373619"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Stefan Laeger","raw_affiliation_strings":["Environment Agency of England and Wales, London, UK","Environment Agency of England and Wales"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environment Agency of England and Wales, London, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184903800"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environment Agency of England and Wales","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184903800"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Steve Taylor","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I184903800","display_name":"Environment Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/01zewfb16","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1326803253","https://openalex.org/I184903800","https://openalex.org/I2802373619"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Steve Taylor","raw_affiliation_strings":["Environment Agency of England and Wales, London, UK","Environment Agency of England and Wales"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environment Agency of England and Wales, London, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184903800"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environment Agency of England and Wales","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184903800"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5063284043"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210126811"],"apc_list":{"value":3990,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3990},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.4519,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":99,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.87778508,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"70","issue":"1","first_page":"159","last_page":"172"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10930","display_name":"Flood Risk Assessment and Management","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10930","display_name":"Flood Risk Assessment and Management","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10330","display_name":"Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2312","display_name":"Water Science and Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10969","display_name":"Water resources management and optimization","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2312","display_name":"Water Science and Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-flood-forecasting","display_name":"probabilistic flood forecasting","score":0.9850000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/flood-risk-management","display_name":"flood risk management","score":0.7839999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-support","display_name":"decision support","score":0.7160000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-based-decision-making","display_name":"risk-based decision making","score":0.949999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-benefit-analysis","display_name":"cost-benefit analysis","score":0.8159999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/flood-warning","display_name":"flood warning","score":0.6990000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/urban-stormwater","display_name":"urban stormwater","score":0.8790000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-uncertainty","display_name":"forecast uncertainty","score":0.5559999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/flood-impacts","display_name":"flood impacts","score":0.5669999718666077}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74256435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q134052","display_name":"Flood myth","level":2,"score":0.7521082162857056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6855558753013611},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183195422","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409303","display_name":"Flood forecasting","level":3,"score":0.5554317235946655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5439945459365845},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.5377490520477295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39410599","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433179","display_name":"Natural hazard","level":2,"score":0.5306873321533203},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778924419","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5460084","display_name":"Flood warning","level":3,"score":0.5012238025665283},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.46726909279823303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186594467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1429176","display_name":"Flooding (psychology)","level":2,"score":0.4644380211830139},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.44421109557151794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107327155","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q330268","display_name":"Decision support system","level":2,"score":0.4265170693397522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.1997791826725006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.18279123306274414},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.15178972482681274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.1384219527244568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.11382773518562317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.11355194449424744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C542102704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q183257","display_name":"Psychotherapist","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86860186","display_name":"Natural Hazards","issn_l":"0921-030X","issn":["0921-030X","1573-0840"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Natural Hazards","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/f5394c9b-ee37-49d9-b9a8-430fce7eb6c5","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/f5394c9b-ee37-49d9-b9a8-430fce7eb6c5","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407055359","display_name":"Explore Bristol Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Dale, M, Wicks, J, Mylne, K, Pappenberger, F, Laeger, S & Taylor, S 2014, 'Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making : An innovative risk-based approach', Natural Hazards, vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 159-172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:70:y:2014:i:1:p:159-172","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.5351999998092651,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324185","display_name":"Deltares","ror":"https://ror.org/01deh9c76"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334658","display_name":"Menzies Centre for Australian Studies, King's College London, University of London","ror":"https://ror.org/0220mzb33"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1967901272","https://openalex.org/W1974649983","https://openalex.org/W2008406497","https://openalex.org/W2010275421","https://openalex.org/W2019743546","https://openalex.org/W2033486251","https://openalex.org/W2048046425","https://openalex.org/W2074857811","https://openalex.org/W2076030908","https://openalex.org/W2081912846","https://openalex.org/W2098374824","https://openalex.org/W2099274213","https://openalex.org/W2120933360","https://openalex.org/W2131647969","https://openalex.org/W2142165741","https://openalex.org/W2163123680","https://openalex.org/W2163837020","https://openalex.org/W2280741008","https://openalex.org/W2295842363","https://openalex.org/W2333414760","https://openalex.org/W2499877604","https://openalex.org/W2737209268","https://openalex.org/W2991266971","https://openalex.org/W4232963370","https://openalex.org/W4285719527"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2401164072","https://openalex.org/W2991266971","https://openalex.org/W2053357625","https://openalex.org/W2333414760","https://openalex.org/W2167192940","https://openalex.org/W2538841786","https://openalex.org/W2222677672","https://openalex.org/W2506528220","https://openalex.org/W2611922677","https://openalex.org/W2292890368"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}