{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2035936324","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01535-2","title":"Predicting critical crashes? A new restriction for the free variables","display_name":"Predicting critical crashes? A new restriction for the free variables","publication_year":2003,"publication_date":"2003-02-17","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2035936324","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01535-2","mag":"2035936324"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01535-2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01535-2","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01535-2","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S24688465","display_name":"Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","issn_l":"0378-4371","issn":["0378-4371","1873-2119"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0204295","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051323797","display_name":"Hans\u2010Christian Graf von Bothmer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0136-444X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0136-444X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210112930","display_name":"Laboratoire Jean-Alexandre Dieudonn\u00e9","ror":"https://ror.org/0274zdr66","country_code":"FR","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I201841394","https://openalex.org/I4210112930","https://openalex.org/I4210141950"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154757","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 Nice Sophia Antipolis","ror":"https://ror.org/02k9vew78","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I201841394","https://openalex.org/I4387154757"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Hans-Christian Graf v. Bothmer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Laboratoire J. A. Dieudonn\u00e9, Universit\u00e9 de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, Parc Valrose, F-06108 Nice, Cedex 2, France"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Laboratoire J. A. Dieudonn\u00e9, Universit\u00e9 de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, Parc Valrose, F-06108 Nice, Cedex 2, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210112930","https://openalex.org/I4387154757"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Christian Meister","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Christian Meister","raw_affiliation_strings":["Section Analysis, ITS/TWA, Delft, The Netherlands"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Section Analysis, ITS/TWA, Delft, The Netherlands","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5051323797"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210112930","https://openalex.org/I4387154757"],"apc_list":{"value":3550,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3550},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.8058,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":70,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.93294942,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"320","issue":null,"first_page":"539","last_page":"547"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.9951000213623047,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.9951000213623047,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.002199999988079071,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12261","display_name":"Statistical Mechanics and Entropy","score":0.0007999999797903001,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stock-market-crash","display_name":"stock market crash","score":0.8309999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/log-periodic-oscillations","display_name":"log-periodic oscillations","score":0.8880000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crash-prediction","display_name":"accident prediction","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/free-variables","display_name":"free variables","score":0.6439999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inequality-constraints","display_name":"inequality constraints","score":0.8080000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dow-jones-industrial-average","display_name":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","score":0.949999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-market-prediction","display_name":"financial market forecasting","score":0.36399999260902405}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183469790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333501","display_name":"Crash","level":2,"score":0.8262632489204407},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5942668318748474},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.5195032358169556},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45555294","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q28113351","display_name":"Inequality","level":2,"score":0.5150951743125916},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.4960375726222992},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204036174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q909380","display_name":"Stock (firearms)","level":2,"score":0.4763658046722412},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780299701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q475000","display_name":"Stock market","level":3,"score":0.45295652747154236},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C88389905","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q223371","display_name":"Stock market index","level":4,"score":0.44099465012550354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.41468262672424316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.38498982787132263},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.2524018883705139},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.17948070168495178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.15515369176864624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.10123839974403381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78519656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101333","display_name":"Mechanical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780762169","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5905368","display_name":"Horse","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01535-2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01535-2","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01535-2","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S24688465","display_name":"Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","issn_l":"0378-4371","issn":["0378-4371","1873-2119"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:cond-mat/0204295","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0204295","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0204295","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:320:y:2003:i:c:p:539-547","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437102015352","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:cond-mat/0204295","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0204295","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0204295","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2035936324.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2035936324.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":6,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1992059898","https://openalex.org/W2047746991","https://openalex.org/W2054149290","https://openalex.org/W2100381995","https://openalex.org/W2149451408","https://openalex.org/W3104582607"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7098203358","https://openalex.org/W7098141882","https://openalex.org/W1529312162","https://openalex.org/W3007601498","https://openalex.org/W7098629667","https://openalex.org/W3195753553","https://openalex.org/W3121612919","https://openalex.org/W7099454736","https://openalex.org/W2807276407","https://openalex.org/W2951029834"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-11-05T12:25:35.769452","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}